Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
52
Up 62%
6 arb excluded
$5.8K
$-12.7K
Smart Money Signal
32 of 52 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed32 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.4K | 56% 72-56 (128) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 100% 96-0 (96) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 51.2¢ | $920.65 | — | -$919.62 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 53.7¢ | $636.94 | — | -$636.94 | 41% 363-532 (895) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 37.7¢ | $530.72 | — | -$530.72 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 53.1¢ | $632.69 | — | -$510.32 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 43.1¢ | $231 | — | -$231 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 48.8¢ | $269.65 | — | -$269.65 | 52% 498-458 (956) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 56.7¢ | $181.49 | — | -$181.49 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.5¢ | $228.81 | $128.22 | -$100.59 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.5¢ | $166.52 | — | -$166.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.6¢ | $62.3 | $128.22 | +$65.93 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $167.02 | $235.16 | +$68.14 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.4¢ | $113.86 | $235.16 | +$121.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.3¢ | $53.16 | — | -$53.16 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $121.17 | $205.67 | +$84.5 | 41% 388-548 (936) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $67.82 | $205.67 | +$137.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.3¢ | $53.35 | — | -$53.35 | |
RA rabadabadooCTR | Upavg 26.1¢ | $143.17 | — | -$130.49 | — |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $320.89 | $99.99 | -$220.9 | 46% 669-781 (1450) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 85¢ | $84.99 | $99.99 | +$15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $235.89 | — | -$235.89 | |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $30.2 | $131.64 | +$101.44 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $96.28 | — | -$96.28 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 57.6¢ | $124.74 | $114 | -$10.74 | 50% 1323-1316 (2639) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.6¢ | $65.64 | $114 | +$48.36 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $59.1 | — | -$59.1 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $65.38 | — | -$50.63 | 43% 227-296 (523) |
0X 0x954b91DD68ECA3aA4EA603ECeA83C01E8539C0e0-1783400656972 | Downavg 27.3¢ | $30.75 | $112.53 | +$81.78 | 35% 179-332 (511) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 76.4¢ | $157.21 | $109.2 | -$45.07 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 71¢ | $71 | $100 | +$29 | 74% 773-277 (1050) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | $200 | +$102 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $84.07 | $100 | +$15.93 | 41% 588-855 (1443) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52¢ | $52 | $100 | +$48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $32.07 | — | -$32.07 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $107.4 | $236.71 | +$129.31 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
Invested
$8,918
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
56%
72-56 (128)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
100%
96-0 (96)
Invested
$920.65
Value
—
PnL
-$919.62
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$636.94
Value
—
PnL
-$636.94
Record
41%
363-532 (895)
Invested
$530.72
Value
—
PnL
-$530.72
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$632.69
Value
—
PnL
-$510.32
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Invested
$231
Value
—
PnL
-$231
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$269.65
Value
—
PnL
-$269.65
Record
52%
498-458 (956)
Invested
$181.49
Value
—
PnL
-$181.49
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$228.81
Value
$128.22
PnL
-$100.59
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$167.02
Value
$235.16
PnL
+$68.14
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$121.17
Value
$205.67
PnL
+$84.5
Record
41%
388-548 (936)
Both legs:
Invested
$143.17
Value
—
PnL
-$130.49
Record
—
Invested
$320.89
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$220.9
Record
46%
669-781 (1450)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.2
Value
$131.64
PnL
+$101.44
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100Invested
$96.28
Value
—
PnL
-$96.28
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
Invested
$124.74
Value
$114
PnL
-$10.74
Record
50%
1323-1316 (2639)
Both legs:
Invested
$65.38
Value
—
PnL
-$50.63
Record
43%
227-296 (523)
Invested
$30.75
Value
$112.53
PnL
+$81.78
Record
35%
179-332 (511)
Invested
$157.21
Value
$109.2
PnL
-$45.07
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
BoneOhioInvested
$71
Value
$100
PnL
+$29
Record
74%
773-277 (1050)
Invested
$98
Value
$200
PnL
+$102
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$84.07
Value
$100
PnL
+$15.93
Record
41%
588-855 (1443)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.4
Value
$236.71
PnL
+$129.31
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
CTRUp — $0