Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
48
Down 48%
2 arb excluded
$6.5K
$-8.1K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 48 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.7K | 56% 72-56 (128) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.12 | 100% 96-0 (96) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $630.86 | $483.4 | -$17.17 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.6¢ | $259.32 | $483.4 | +$244.61 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $253.57 | — | -$261.78 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 63.1¢ | $440.86 | $468.7 | +$41.65 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 63.6¢ | $385.71 | $394.65 | +$8.94 | 41% 363-532 (895) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 44.4¢ | $142.57 | $191.36 | +$58.08 | 41% 388-548 (936) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 95¢ | $142.5 | $150 | +$7.5 | 46% 569-681 (1250) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 53.9¢ | $102.81 | $125.57 | +$43.64 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 21.2¢ | $181.49 | — | -$181.49 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $87.11 | $123.47 | +$46.25 | — |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 86.3¢ | $96.41 | $111.66 | +$15.25 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 32.9¢ | $63.69 | $94.74 | +$31.05 | 51% 407-391 (798) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32¢ | $30.32 | $94.74 | +$64.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.9¢ | $33.37 | — | -$33.37 | |
ST stepahead<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $95.52 | $92.76 | -$2.76 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Downavg 38¢ | $168.44 | — | -$168.44 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 34.2¢ | $46.63 | $93.23 | +$46.59 | 53% 1148-1015 (2163) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $83.58 | $230.8 | +$147.22 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 46¢ | $132.39 | — | -$132.39 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 69.3¢ | $102.37 | $70.77 | +$8.4 | 59% 508-353 (861) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $42.13 | $55 | +$13.62 | 43% 227-296 (523) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $334.01 | $53.47 | -$11.82 | 26% 419-1163 (1582) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $46.44 | $48.38 | +$1.94 | 50% 3472-3414 (6886) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Upavg 81.8¢ | $93.43 | $52.64 | -$5.53 | — |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Downavg 60.9¢ | $49.94 | — | -$49.94 | 51% 410-400 (810) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $43.56 | $48.6 | +$5.04 | — |
Invested
$8,711
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
56%
72-56 (128)
Invested
$2,882.79
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.12
Record
100%
96-0 (96)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$630.86
Value
$483.4
PnL
-$17.17
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Both legs:
Invested
$440.86
Value
$468.7
PnL
+$41.65
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$385.71
Value
$394.65
PnL
+$8.94
Record
41%
363-532 (895)
Invested
$142.57
Value
$191.36
PnL
+$58.08
Record
41%
388-548 (936)
Invested
$142.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$7.5
Record
46%
569-681 (1250)
Invested
$102.81
Value
$125.57
PnL
+$43.64
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$181.49
Value
—
PnL
-$181.49
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$87.11
Value
$123.47
PnL
+$46.25
Record
—
Invested
$96.41
Value
$111.66
PnL
+$15.25
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
Invested
$63.69
Value
$94.74
PnL
+$31.05
Record
51%
407-391 (798)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.52
Value
$92.76
PnL
-$2.76
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$168.44
Value
—
PnL
-$168.44
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$46.63
Value
$93.23
PnL
+$46.59
Record
53%
1148-1015 (2163)
Invested
$83.58
Value
$230.8
PnL
+$147.22
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$132.39
Value
—
PnL
-$132.39
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
Invested
$102.37
Value
$70.77
PnL
+$8.4
Record
59%
508-353 (861)
Invested
$42.13
Value
$55
PnL
+$13.62
Record
43%
227-296 (523)
Invested
$334.01
Value
$53.47
PnL
-$11.82
Record
26%
419-1163 (1582)
Invested
$46.44
Value
$48.38
PnL
+$1.94
Record
50%
3472-3414 (6886)
Invested
$93.43
Value
$52.64
PnL
-$5.53
Record
—
Invested
$49.94
Value
—
PnL
-$49.94
Record
51%
410-400 (810)
Invested
$43.56
Value
$48.6
PnL
+$5.04
Record
—
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.9K
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $468.7
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $394.65
GoodFallen
Up — $191.36
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $150
blue.birds
Up — $125.57
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0