Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-8.1K
Smart Money Signal
46 of 59 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.8K | 56% 72-56 (128) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 100% 96-0 (96) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55¢ | $605.95 | $477.09 | -$14.28 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 63.3¢ | $379.24 | $476.89 | +$97.65 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80.1¢ | $370.5 | $358.97 | -$3.26 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.9¢ | $297.62 | $321.52 | +$23.89 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
BO bosona | Downavg 78.9¢ | $247.06 | $309.06 | +$61.99 | 50% 3891-3897 (7788) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $253.06 | $279.97 | +$26.91 | 46% 569-681 (1250) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 78¢ | $305.76 | $279.13 | -$20.33 | 41% 363-532 (895) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 80¢ | $183.3 | $226.98 | +$43.69 | 49% 786-802 (1588) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 62¢ | $173.02 | $279.07 | +$106.05 | 38% 468-754 (1222) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.3¢ | $138.17 | $150.84 | +$12.67 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $202.64 | $150 | -$52.64 | 26% 419-1163 (1582) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $150.57 | $100 | -$50.57 | 41% 588-855 (1443) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 94¢ | $94 | $100 | +$6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 11.3¢ | $56.57 | — | -$56.57 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 60¢ | $101.4 | $169 | +$67.6 | — |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 82.8¢ | $129.33 | $129.61 | +$0.28 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 83.4¢ | $107.45 | $127.21 | +$19.77 | 46% 669-781 (1450) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 68¢ | $108.71 | $122.62 | +$13.91 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $115.03 | $115.74 | +$4.67 | 62% 2042-1276 (3318) |
 ohioism | Downavg 74¢ | $125.04 | $100 | -$25.04 | 49% 1034-1095 (2129) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $103 | — | -$103 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 74.4¢ | $100.95 | $103.12 | +$2.17 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 92.6¢ | $114 | $100 | -$14 | 53% 1148-1015 (2163) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 64¢ | $70.65 | $110.39 | +$39.74 | 44% 52-65 (117) |
Invested
$8,891.2
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
56%
72-56 (128)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
100%
96-0 (96)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$605.95
Value
$477.09
PnL
-$14.28
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Invested
$379.24
Value
$476.89
PnL
+$97.65
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$370.5
Value
$358.97
PnL
-$3.26
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$297.62
Value
$321.52
PnL
+$23.89
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$247.06
Value
$309.06
PnL
+$61.99
Record
50%
3891-3897 (7788)
Invested
$253.06
Value
$279.97
PnL
+$26.91
Record
46%
569-681 (1250)
Invested
$305.76
Value
$279.13
PnL
-$20.33
Record
41%
363-532 (895)
Invested
$183.3
Value
$226.98
PnL
+$43.69
Record
49%
786-802 (1588)
Invested
$173.02
Value
$279.07
PnL
+$106.05
Record
38%
468-754 (1222)
Invested
$138.17
Value
$150.84
PnL
+$12.67
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$202.64
Value
$150
PnL
-$52.64
Record
26%
419-1163 (1582)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$150.57
Value
$100
PnL
-$50.57
Record
41%
588-855 (1443)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.4
Value
$169
PnL
+$67.6
Record
—
Invested
$129.33
Value
$129.61
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
Invested
$107.45
Value
$127.21
PnL
+$19.77
Record
46%
669-781 (1450)
Invested
$108.71
Value
$122.62
PnL
+$13.91
Record
—
Invested
$115.03
Value
$115.74
PnL
+$4.67
Record
62%
2042-1276 (3318)
ohioismInvested
$125.04
Value
$100
PnL
-$25.04
Record
49%
1034-1095 (2129)
Invested
$103
Value
—
PnL
-$103
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$100.95
Value
$103.12
PnL
+$2.17
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$114
Value
$100
PnL
-$14
Record
53%
1148-1015 (2163)
Invested
$70.65
Value
$110.39
PnL
+$39.74
Record
44%
52-65 (117)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $477.09
Bonereaper
Down — $476.89
blue.birds
Down — $358.97
CrouchPredictions
Down — $321.52
bosona
Down — $309.06
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $279.97
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $279.13