Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Up 70%
8 arb excluded
$13.3K
$184.36
Smart Money Signal
32 of 46 top traders (70%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.9K | -$19.2 | 56% 72-56 (128) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 73.7¢ | $739.97 | $635.37 | -$104.61 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $303.85 | $628.86 | +$325.01 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $226.36 | $441.15 | +$214.79 | 48% 998-1097 (2095) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $336.48 | $215.36 | -$121.12 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $225.47 | — | -$225.47 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.5¢ | $111.01 | $215.36 | +$104.34 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 81¢ | $243 | $300 | +$57 | 41% 588-855 (1443) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 65.8¢ | $276.09 | $279.78 | +$3.68 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 58.9¢ | $261.77 | $267.24 | +$5.47 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50.2¢ | $203.65 | $205 | +$1.35 | 53% 1148-1015 (2163) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 57.4¢ | $146.5 | $170 | +$23.5 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $122.21 | $145.47 | +$23.26 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $71.94 | $145.47 | +$73.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.9¢ | $50.27 | — | -$50.27 | |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 99¢ | $132.33 | $131 | -$1.33 | 39% 676-1067 (1743) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 61.8¢ | $116.61 | $124.69 | +$8.08 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 61¢ | $113.18 | $171.69 | +$58.51 | — |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 52.3¢ | $115.86 | $118.66 | +$2.8 | 48% 344-373 (717) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.3¢ | $62.04 | $118.66 | +$56.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $53.82 | — | -$53.82 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $123.81 | $115.65 | -$8.16 | — |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71.7¢ | $123.97 | $115.75 | -$8.22 | 41% 388-548 (936) |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $104.4 | $120 | +$15.6 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.3¢ | $68.8 | $120 | +$51.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.5¢ | $35.6 | — | -$35.6 | |
SE seeeeeeb | Upavg 55.1¢ | $56.4 | $102.33 | +$45.93 | — |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 46¢ | $47.53 | $100 | +$52.47 | 51% 410-400 (810) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $89.3 | $38.77 | -$47.38 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.7¢ | $64.79 | — | -$64.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $21.71 | $38.77 | +$17.41 | |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $99.29 | $87.85 | +$7.77 | 52% 498-458 (956) |
0X 0x855e484854D1411B959dDffddA11A698566C5189-1780249997359ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $82.51 | $116.75 | +$34.24 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.9¢ | $54.7 | $116.75 | +$62.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $27.81 | — | -$27.81 | |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $83.23 | $94.17 | +$10.93 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.4¢ | $56.86 | $94.17 | +$37.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.8¢ | $26.37 | — | -$26.37 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 59.8¢ | $68.1 | $83.03 | +$20.23 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
Invested
$8,614
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$19.2
Record
56%
72-56 (128)
Invested
$739.97
Value
$635.37
PnL
-$104.61
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$303.85
Value
$628.86
PnL
+$325.01
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
Invested
$226.36
Value
$441.15
PnL
+$214.79
Record
48%
998-1097 (2095)
Invested
$336.48
Value
$215.36
PnL
-$121.12
Record
—
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$243
Value
$300
PnL
+$57
Record
41%
588-855 (1443)
Invested
$276.09
Value
$279.78
PnL
+$3.68
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$261.77
Value
$267.24
PnL
+$5.47
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$203.65
Value
$205
PnL
+$1.35
Record
53%
1148-1015 (2163)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$146.5
Value
$170
PnL
+$23.5
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
Invested
$122.21
Value
$145.47
PnL
+$23.26
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$132.33
Value
$131
PnL
-$1.33
Record
39%
676-1067 (1743)
Invested
$116.61
Value
$124.69
PnL
+$8.08
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$113.18
Value
$171.69
PnL
+$58.51
Record
—
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$115.86
Value
$118.66
PnL
+$2.8
Record
48%
344-373 (717)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.81
Value
$115.65
PnL
-$8.16
Record
—
Invested
$123.97
Value
$115.75
PnL
-$8.22
Record
41%
388-548 (936)
Invested
$104.4
Value
$120
PnL
+$15.6
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$56.4
Value
$102.33
PnL
+$45.93
Record
—
Invested
$47.53
Value
$100
PnL
+$52.47
Record
51%
410-400 (810)
Invested
$89.3
Value
$38.77
PnL
-$47.38
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$99.29
Value
$87.85
PnL
+$7.77
Record
52%
498-458 (956)
Invested
$82.51
Value
$116.75
PnL
+$34.24
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$83.23
Value
$94.17
PnL
+$10.93
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$68.1
Value
$83.03
PnL
+$20.23
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.9K
Bonereaper
Up — $635.37
38791873984189
Up — $628.86
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $441.15
0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $300
blue.birds
Up — $279.78
stepahead
Up — $267.24
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $205
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Up — $170