Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 60%
5 arb excluded
$9.3K
-$686.26
Smart Money Signal
29 of 48 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 100% 96-0 (96) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 93.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$10.55 | 59% 536-371 (907) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.2¢ | $427.23 | $454.07 | +$26.84 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75¢ | $396.38 | $382.7 | -$13.68 | 54% 3785-3176 (6961) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $393.8 | $266.97 | -$126.82 | 48% 998-1097 (2095) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $253.3 | — | -$253.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.6¢ | $140.5 | $266.97 | +$126.48 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.7¢ | $420.24 | $335.29 | -$76.53 | 41% 363-532 (895) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 80¢ | $320.29 | $395.56 | +$75.27 | 41% 588-855 (1443) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80.3¢ | $378.86 | $308.6 | -$70.26 | 46% 527-617 (1144) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $241.84 | $270.41 | +$28.57 | 50% 110-110 (220) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 82¢ | $241.53 | $239.6 | -$1.93 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 76¢ | $221.14 | $226.32 | +$5.17 | 34% 402-773 (1175) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $143.33 | $168.99 | +$25.67 | 51% 410-400 (810) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $96.33 | $168.99 | +$72.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $47 | — | -$47 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 84.2¢ | $158.45 | $112.02 | -$46.43 | 41% 388-548 (936) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $91.98 | $94.99 | +$3 | 44% 1012-1265 (2277) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.5¢ | $62.19 | $94.99 | +$32.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.8¢ | $29.79 | — | -$29.79 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $96.45 | $84.5 | -$11.94 | 51% 407-391 (798) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81¢ | $68.45 | $84.5 | +$16.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28¢ | $28 | — | -$28 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 88.5¢ | $103.4 | $88 | -$15.4 | — |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Upavg 27.7¢ | $164.96 | — | -$164.96 | — |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $92.64 | $81.96 | +$7.49 | 52% 498-458 (956) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $74.74 | $79.69 | +$8.44 | 26% 419-1163 (1582) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $109.59 | $78.96 | -$11.38 | 62% 2042-1276 (3318) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 80.3¢ | $72.41 | $73.67 | +$3.51 | 53% 4150-3615 (7765) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $58.6 | $66.79 | +$8.19 | — |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $68.21 | $65.33 | -$2.88 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $41.02 | $62.61 | +$21.59 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $49.22 | $62.31 | +$13.09 | — |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
100%
96-0 (96)
Invested
$1,688.73
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$10.55
Record
59%
536-371 (907)
Invested
$427.23
Value
$454.07
PnL
+$26.84
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Invested
$396.38
Value
$382.7
PnL
-$13.68
Record
54%
3785-3176 (6961)
Invested
$393.8
Value
$266.97
PnL
-$126.82
Record
48%
998-1097 (2095)
Both legs:
Invested
$420.24
Value
$335.29
PnL
-$76.53
Record
41%
363-532 (895)
machinelearnedInvested
$320.29
Value
$395.56
PnL
+$75.27
Record
41%
588-855 (1443)
Invested
$378.86
Value
$308.6
PnL
-$70.26
Record
46%
527-617 (1144)
Invested
$241.84
Value
$270.41
PnL
+$28.57
Record
50%
110-110 (220)
Invested
$241.53
Value
$239.6
PnL
-$1.93
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$221.14
Value
$226.32
PnL
+$5.17
Record
34%
402-773 (1175)
Invested
$143.33
Value
$168.99
PnL
+$25.67
Record
51%
410-400 (810)
Both legs:
Invested
$158.45
Value
$112.02
PnL
-$46.43
Record
41%
388-548 (936)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$91.98
Value
$94.99
PnL
+$3
Record
44%
1012-1265 (2277)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.45
Value
$84.5
PnL
-$11.94
Record
51%
407-391 (798)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.4
Value
$88
PnL
-$15.4
Record
—
Invested
$164.96
Value
—
PnL
-$164.96
Record
—
Invested
$92.64
Value
$81.96
PnL
+$7.49
Record
52%
498-458 (956)
Invested
$74.74
Value
$79.69
PnL
+$8.44
Record
26%
419-1163 (1582)
Invested
$109.59
Value
$78.96
PnL
-$11.38
Record
62%
2042-1276 (3318)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$72.41
Value
$73.67
PnL
+$3.51
Record
53%
4150-3615 (7765)
Invested
$58.6
Value
$66.79
PnL
+$8.19
Record
—
Invested
$68.21
Value
$65.33
PnL
-$2.88
Record
—
Invested
$41.02
Value
$62.61
PnL
+$21.59
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
Invested
$49.22
Value
$62.31
PnL
+$13.09
Record
—
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.7K
blue.birds
Down — $454.07
stepahead
Down — $382.7
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $335.29
machinelearned
Down — $395.56
CrouchPredictions
Down — $308.6
0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658
Down — $270.41
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $239.6