Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Down 58%
2 arb excluded
$5.0K
-$405.96
Smart Money Signal
29 of 50 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.76 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.6¢ | $613.96 | $616.85 | +$2.9 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.8¢ | $343.47 | $328.84 | -$14.63 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $284.2 | $259.91 | -$24.29 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
 ohioism | Downavg 69.2¢ | $171.35 | $224.99 | +$53.64 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.4¢ | $249.18 | $219.98 | -$27.19 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
28 0x280e...fbd8 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $124.21 | $200 | +$75.79 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 75.6¢ | $178.55 | $192.65 | +$14.1 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
23 0x239e...1c10 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $185.79 | $184.98 | -$0.81 | — |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 58.9¢ | $104.83 | $174.33 | +$69.5 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 67.7¢ | $152.23 | $224.97 | +$72.74 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 33.5¢ | $237.49 | — | -$237.49 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
BA 0xba67...4727 | Downavg 69¢ | $94.2 | $134.99 | +$40.8 | — |
AL almach | Downavg 60¢ | $80.46 | $131.33 | +$50.87 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $75.11 | — | -$75.11 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 41.8¢ | $114.75 | $100 | -$14.75 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $54 | $100 | +$46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.8¢ | $60.75 | — | -$60.75 | |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 69.7¢ | $69.81 | $100.15 | +$30.34 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
B5 0xb543...5d5e<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $68.43 | $88 | +$19.62 | — |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $72.69 | $91.89 | +$19.21 | — |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $63.62 | $84.5 | +$20.88 | 51% 406-397 (803) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.5¢ | $53.01 | — | -$53.01 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78¢ | $94.43 | $111.08 | +$16.65 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
42 0x424e...263bARB<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $67.14 | $59.99 | -$7.15 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.7¢ | $26.6 | — | -$26.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.6¢ | $40.54 | $59.99 | +$19.45 | |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 57.8¢ | $58.31 | $61 | +$2.69 | 48% 338-368 (706) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $91.59 | $59.11 | -$22.38 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
Invested
$1,065.47
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.76
Record
—
Invested
$613.96
Value
$616.85
PnL
+$2.9
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$343.47
Value
$328.84
PnL
-$14.63
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$284.2
Value
$259.91
PnL
-$24.29
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
ohioismInvested
$171.35
Value
$224.99
PnL
+$53.64
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$249.18
Value
$219.98
PnL
-$27.19
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$124.21
Value
$200
PnL
+$75.79
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$178.55
Value
$192.65
PnL
+$14.1
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Invested
$185.79
Value
$184.98
PnL
-$0.81
Record
—
Invested
$104.83
Value
$174.33
PnL
+$69.5
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
BoneOhioInvested
$152.23
Value
$224.97
PnL
+$72.74
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Invested
$237.49
Value
—
PnL
-$237.49
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$94.2
Value
$134.99
PnL
+$40.8
Record
—
Invested
$80.46
Value
$131.33
PnL
+$50.87
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$75.11
Value
—
PnL
-$75.11
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$114.75
Value
$100
PnL
-$14.75
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.81
Value
$100.15
PnL
+$30.34
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$68.43
Value
$88
PnL
+$19.62
Record
—
Invested
$72.69
Value
$91.89
PnL
+$19.21
Record
—
Invested
$63.62
Value
$84.5
PnL
+$20.88
Record
51%
406-397 (803)
Invested
$53.01
Value
—
PnL
-$53.01
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
machinelearnedInvested
$94.43
Value
$111.08
PnL
+$16.65
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$67.14
Value
$59.99
PnL
-$7.15
Record
—
Both legs:
OhioAI<$100Invested
$58.31
Value
$61
PnL
+$2.69
Record
48%
338-368 (706)
Invested
$91.59
Value
$59.11
PnL
-$22.38
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x5e4a...be6b
Down — $1.1K
blue.birds
Down — $616.85
stepahead
Down — $328.84
ply-pm0
Down — $259.91
ohioism
Down — $224.99
Bonereaper
Down — $219.98
0x280e...fbd8
Down — $200
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Down — $192.65
0x239e...1c10
Down — $184.98
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $174.33