Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
45
Up 36%
15 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$453.28
Smart Money Signal
17 of 45 top traders (38%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 36.4¢ | $520.82 | $706.69 | +$274.01 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 26.9¢ | $247.74 | $512.4 | +$268.86 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $457.72 | $365.16 | -$92.56 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.6¢ | $329.77 | — | -$329.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35¢ | $127.95 | $365.16 | +$237.21 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $416.93 | $588.55 | +$171.62 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.5¢ | $227.31 | — | -$227.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.2¢ | $189.62 | $588.55 | +$398.93 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 41.5¢ | $158.38 | $381.48 | +$223.1 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $322.04 | $654.72 | +$332.68 | 48% 991-1090 (2081) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $196.23 | $382.67 | +$186.44 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32¢ | $122.37 | $382.67 | +$260.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $73.86 | — | -$73.86 | |
28 0x280e...fbd8CTR | Downavg 58¢ | $229.05 | — | -$229.05 | — |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $189.66 | $240.27 | +$50.61 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
AL almach | Upavg 91.9¢ | $241.57 | $228.04 | -$13.52 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
B5 0xb543...5d5eCTR | Downavg 61.9¢ | $234.19 | — | -$232.84 | — |
4C 0x4c94...ffadARB<$100 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $246.5 | $143.52 | -$102.98 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.7¢ | $164.88 | — | -$164.88 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.9¢ | $81.62 | $143.52 | +$61.9 | |
B1 0xb129...890cCTR | Downavg 38.7¢ | $126.08 | — | -$126.08 | — |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $228.22 | $192.99 | -$13.01 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
BA 0xba67...4727ARB<$100 | Upavg 40.3¢ | $135.55 | $178.55 | +$43 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.8¢ | $63.62 | — | -$63.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.3¢ | $71.93 | $178.55 | +$106.62 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $324.25 | $590.13 | +$265.89 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $293.12 | $590.13 | +$297.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.9¢ | $31.13 | — | -$31.13 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 37.7¢ | $100.11 | $182 | +$104.54 | 48% 338-368 (706) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 47.5¢ | $138.79 | $167.94 | +$29.15 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.5¢ | $82.99 | — | -$82.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.2¢ | $55.79 | $167.94 | +$112.15 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $135.05 | $151.24 | +$16.19 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $97.32 | — | -$97.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.9¢ | $37.73 | $151.24 | +$113.52 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 61.4¢ | $250.61 | — | -$244.57 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
AS asdaefefCTR | Downavg 69.7¢ | $189.17 | — | -$189.17 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
56 0x568b...0b3bARB<$100 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $183.96 | $99 | -$84.96 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.8¢ | $118.49 | — | -$118.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.1¢ | $65.47 | $99 | +$33.53 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 68.5¢ | $154.94 | $123.5 | -$31.44 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.6¢ | $70.31 | — | -$70.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.5¢ | $84.63 | $123.5 | +$38.87 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 53.2¢ | $111.1 | $126.62 | +$15.52 | 53% 4144-3610 (7754) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.7¢ | $43.73 | — | -$43.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.2¢ | $67.37 | $126.62 | +$59.25 | |
1B 0x1b41...0b56CTR | Downavg 52.4¢ | $110.79 | — | -$110.79 | — |
Invested
$520.82
Value
$706.69
PnL
+$274.01
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$247.74
Value
$512.4
PnL
+$268.86
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$457.72
Value
$365.16
PnL
-$92.56
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Both legs:
Invested
$416.93
Value
$588.55
PnL
+$171.62
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Both legs:
Invested
$158.38
Value
$381.48
PnL
+$223.1
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Invested
$322.04
Value
$654.72
PnL
+$332.68
Record
48%
991-1090 (2081)
Invested
$196.23
Value
$382.67
PnL
+$186.44
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Both legs:
Invested
$229.05
Value
—
PnL
-$229.05
Record
—
Invested
$189.66
Value
$240.27
PnL
+$50.61
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Invested
$241.57
Value
$228.04
PnL
-$13.52
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$234.19
Value
—
PnL
-$232.84
Record
—
Invested
$246.5
Value
$143.52
PnL
-$102.98
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$126.08
Value
—
PnL
-$126.08
Record
—
Invested
$228.22
Value
$192.99
PnL
-$13.01
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
Invested
$135.55
Value
$178.55
PnL
+$43
Record
—
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$324.25
Value
$590.13
PnL
+$265.89
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$100.11
Value
$182
PnL
+$104.54
Record
48%
338-368 (706)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$138.79
Value
$167.94
PnL
+$29.15
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.05
Value
$151.24
PnL
+$16.19
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
Both legs:
Invested
$250.61
Value
—
PnL
-$244.57
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$189.17
Value
—
PnL
-$189.17
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$183.96
Value
$99
PnL
-$84.96
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$154.94
Value
$123.5
PnL
-$31.44
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$111.1
Value
$126.62
PnL
+$15.52
Record
53%
4144-3610 (7754)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.79
Value
—
PnL
-$110.79
Record
—
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $706.69
CrouchPredictions
Up — $512.4
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
Up — $381.48
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $654.72
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x280e...fbd8
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $240.27
almach
Up — $228.04