Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Down 56%
4 arb excluded
$6.2K
-$960.17
Smart Money Signal
28 of 50 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 84.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$285.06 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 51.9¢ | $442.59 | $591.34 | +$155.65 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 41.4¢ | $306.7 | — | -$306.7 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 52.4¢ | $206.56 | $344.99 | +$145.03 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
 BoneOhioCTR | Upavg 42¢ | $388.21 | — | -$388.21 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
28 0x280e...fbd8 | Downavg 40.6¢ | $166.73 | $364.2 | +$197.47 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59¢ | $262.82 | $272.74 | +$9.92 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $155.23 | $254.3 | +$99.07 | 51% 406-397 (803) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $225.08 | $210 | -$15.08 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.1¢ | $128.3 | $210 | +$81.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.7¢ | $96.78 | — | -$96.78 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.5¢ | $207.83 | $228.32 | +$20.49 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 73.2¢ | $150.53 | $199.63 | +$49.1 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
B1 0xb129...890cCTR | Upavg 49¢ | $292.37 | — | -$292.37 | — |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0 | Downavg 52¢ | $108.92 | $158.45 | +$49.53 | — |
4C 0x4c94...ffad | Downavg 63¢ | $100.83 | $154.88 | +$54.05 | — |
42 0x424e...263b | Downavg 59.1¢ | $142.53 | $152.46 | +$19.83 | — |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $130.87 | $189.8 | +$58.93 | 53% 4144-3610 (7754) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.9¢ | $81.4 | $189.8 | +$108.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.7¢ | $49.47 | — | -$49.47 | |
56 0x568b...0b3b | Downavg 57¢ | $78.01 | $136.94 | +$58.93 | — |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 59¢ | $114.95 | $128.44 | +$13.48 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Upavg 39.8¢ | $158.04 | — | -$158.04 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
B5 0xb543...5d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $119.27 | $87.99 | -$31.28 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.5¢ | $55.88 | $87.99 | +$32.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48¢ | $63.39 | — | -$63.39 | |
1B 0x1b41...0b56<$100 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $75.7 | $96.71 | +$33.18 | — |
37 0x3708...daf9 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $111.03 | $174 | +$62.97 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $58.47 | $93.17 | +$34.7 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $94.53 | $76.02 | -$18.51 | 44% 990-1249 (2239) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $47.89 | $76.02 | +$28.13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.7¢ | $46.64 | — | -$46.64 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $92.95 | — | -$92.95 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
Invested
$1,568.61
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$285.06
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$442.59
Value
$591.34
PnL
+$155.65
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$306.7
Value
—
PnL
-$306.7
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Invested
$206.56
Value
$344.99
PnL
+$145.03
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
BoneOhioCTRInvested
$388.21
Value
—
PnL
-$388.21
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Invested
$166.73
Value
$364.2
PnL
+$197.47
Record
—
Invested
$262.82
Value
$272.74
PnL
+$9.92
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$155.23
Value
$254.3
PnL
+$99.07
Record
51%
406-397 (803)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$225.08
Value
$210
PnL
-$15.08
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Both legs:
Invested
$207.83
Value
$228.32
PnL
+$20.49
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$150.53
Value
$199.63
PnL
+$49.1
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$292.37
Value
—
PnL
-$292.37
Record
—
Invested
$108.92
Value
$158.45
PnL
+$49.53
Record
—
Invested
$100.83
Value
$154.88
PnL
+$54.05
Record
—
Invested
$142.53
Value
$152.46
PnL
+$19.83
Record
—
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$130.87
Value
$189.8
PnL
+$58.93
Record
53%
4144-3610 (7754)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.01
Value
$136.94
PnL
+$58.93
Record
—
Invested
$114.95
Value
$128.44
PnL
+$13.48
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$158.04
Value
—
PnL
-$158.04
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Invested
$119.27
Value
$87.99
PnL
-$31.28
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$75.7
Value
$96.71
PnL
+$33.18
Record
—
Invested
$111.03
Value
$174
PnL
+$62.97
Record
—
Invested
$58.47
Value
$93.17
PnL
+$34.7
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$94.53
Value
$76.02
PnL
-$18.51
Record
44%
990-1249 (2239)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.95
Value
—
PnL
-$92.95
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.9K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $591.34
ply-pm0
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $344.99
BoneOhio
CTRUp — $0
0x280e...fbd8
Down — $364.2
stepahead
Down — $272.74
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Down — $254.3
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $228.32