Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Up 47%
5 arb excluded
$8.4K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 55 top traders (47%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 71.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$313.1 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
BO bosona | Downavg 21.5¢ | $193.85 | $887.56 | +$693.71 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
AL almach | Downavg 18¢ | $195.76 | $1.1K | +$891.3 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 56.9¢ | $673.22 | — | -$667.05 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 54.3¢ | $561.48 | — | -$561.48 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 20.7¢ | $142.41 | $544.46 | +$402.05 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 70.2¢ | $364.6 | — | -$364.6 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
23 0x239e...1c10CTR | Upavg 61.2¢ | $379.89 | — | -$379.89 | — |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 13.7¢ | $235.18 | — | -$229.63 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
B1 0xb129...890c | Downavg 68.8¢ | $337.64 | $411.5 | +$73.86 | — |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 52.3¢ | $344.48 | — | -$344.48 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
94 0x9412...0cd0ARB<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $349.44 | $366.85 | +$17.41 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.3¢ | $151.5 | $366.85 | +$215.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $197.94 | — | -$197.94 | |
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Downavg 99¢ | $325.56 | $328.85 | +$3.29 | — |
28 0x280e...fbd8ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $198.17 | $284.23 | +$86.06 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $137.33 | $284.23 | +$146.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18¢ | $60.84 | — | -$60.84 | |
94 0x9417...6e5e | Downavg 39.5¢ | $124.77 | $305.69 | +$180.92 | — |
HO hoodquantCTR | Upavg 97.2¢ | $297.62 | — | -$297.62 | 98% 1899-39 (1938) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 37.6¢ | $230.16 | — | -$230.16 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $194.24 | $269.96 | +$75.72 | 50% 1317-1303 (2620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 9.1¢ | $24.69 | $269.96 | +$245.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.6¢ | $169.55 | — | -$169.55 | |
BA 0xba67...4727 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $194.33 | $265.29 | +$70.96 | — |
44 0x4483...54c6 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $215.35 | $235.25 | +$19.9 | — |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 59.7¢ | $294.65 | — | -$294.65 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 37.5¢ | $155.91 | $203.98 | +$102.57 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 55.5¢ | $231.88 | — | -$231.88 | 53% 4144-3610 (7754) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $180.83 | $188.73 | +$7.9 | 51% 406-397 (803) |
37 0x3708...daf9CTR | Upavg 50.6¢ | $122.17 | — | -$122.17 | — |
Invested
$1,282.4
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$313.1
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$193.85
Value
$887.56
PnL
+$693.71
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$195.76
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$891.3
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$673.22
Value
—
PnL
-$667.05
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$561.48
Value
—
PnL
-$561.48
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$142.41
Value
$544.46
PnL
+$402.05
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$364.6
Value
—
PnL
-$364.6
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$379.89
Value
—
PnL
-$379.89
Record
—
Invested
$235.18
Value
—
PnL
-$229.63
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$337.64
Value
$411.5
PnL
+$73.86
Record
—
Invested
$344.48
Value
—
PnL
-$344.48
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Invested
$349.44
Value
$366.85
PnL
+$17.41
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$325.56
Value
$328.85
PnL
+$3.29
Record
—
Invested
$198.17
Value
$284.23
PnL
+$86.06
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$124.77
Value
$305.69
PnL
+$180.92
Record
—
Invested
$297.62
Value
—
PnL
-$297.62
Record
98%
1899-39 (1938)
Invested
$230.16
Value
—
PnL
-$230.16
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$194.24
Value
$269.96
PnL
+$75.72
Record
50%
1317-1303 (2620)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.33
Value
$265.29
PnL
+$70.96
Record
—
Invested
$215.35
Value
$235.25
PnL
+$19.9
Record
—
Invested
$294.65
Value
—
PnL
-$294.65
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Invested
$155.91
Value
$203.98
PnL
+$102.57
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$231.88
Value
—
PnL
-$231.88
Record
53%
4144-3610 (7754)
Invested
$180.83
Value
$188.73
PnL
+$7.9
Record
51%
406-397 (803)
Invested
$122.17
Value
—
PnL
-$122.17
Record
—
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.6K
bosona
Down — $887.56
almach
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $544.46
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0
0x239e...1c10
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
0xb129...890c
Down — $411.5