Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

35 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 99.5¢

+106% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

35 of 58 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up35 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,924

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down23 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,162

Combined PnL-$361.8

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 50.9¢	$842.29	$894.13	+$51.84	40% 358-526 (884)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 40.9¢	$588.05	$760.44	+$172.39	59% 527-368 (895)
CD 0xcd30...2dd0CTR	Downavg 68.4¢	$615.44	$550.04	-$65.39	—
MO mo-money	Upavg 64.9¢	$407.72	$486.98	+$79.26	46% 656-776 (1432)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 68.2¢	$426.41	$465.04	+$38.63	52% 3801-3556 (7357)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 51¢	$411.51	$443.56	+$32.05	41% 381-544 (925)
37 0x3708...daf9	Upavg 55.2¢	$252.73	$422.19	+$169.46	—
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 41.9¢	$301.4	$415.09	+$113.69	46% 519-610 (1129)
B5 0xb543...5d5e	Upavg 59.8¢	$362.53	$403.96	+$41.43	—
machinelearned	Upavg 10.6¢	$86.79	$390.69	+$303.89	41% 580-851 (1431)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 71.4¢	$336.85	$386.76	+$64.71	34% 394-770 (1164)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54.5¢	$318.38	$376.89	+$58.51	53% 4144-3610 (7754)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 35.9¢	$399.72	$372.45	+$52.48	26% 417-1159 (1576)
ST stepahead	Upavg 39.7¢	$239.32	$304.43	+$65.11	54% 3778-3168 (6946)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 61.5¢	$266.15	$296.48	+$30.33	51% 404-385 (789)
28 0x280e...fbd8	Upavg 72¢	$202.26	$279.61	+$77.35	—
94 0x9412...0cd0	Upavg 26¢	$126.43	$273.07	+$146.64	—
94 0x9417...6e5e	Upavg 60.7¢	$181	$255.05	+$74.05	—
BA 0xba67...4727ARB<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$221.62	$231.19	+$9.57	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$104.72	$181.09	+$76.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$116.9	$50.1	-$66.8
44 0x4483...54c6	Upavg 80.2¢	$222.73	$222.58	-$0.15	—
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0	Upavg 45.2¢	$184.16	$203.7	+$28.23	—
23 0x239e...1c10	Upavg 42.3¢	$144.03	$203.26	+$59.23	—
AL almach	Upavg 61¢	$227.97	$192.4	-$35.57	47% 654-750 (1404)
BO bosona	Upavg 56¢	$144.84	$168.42	+$23.58	50% 3878-3890 (7768)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 58.3¢	$137.51	$150.33	+$13.01	66% 1776-921 (2697)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$842.29

Value

$894.13

PnL

+$51.84

Record

40%

358-526 (884)

Bonereaper

Invested

$588.05

Value

$760.44

PnL

+$172.39

Record

59%

527-368 (895)

0xcd30...2dd0CTR

Down

Invested

$615.44

Value

$550.04

PnL

-$65.39

Record

—

mo-money

Invested

$407.72

Value

$486.98

PnL

+$79.26

Record

46%

656-776 (1432)

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$426.41

Value

$465.04

PnL

+$38.63

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

GoodFallen

Invested

$411.51

Value

$443.56

PnL

+$32.05

Record

41%

381-544 (925)

0x3708...daf9

Invested

$252.73

Value

$422.19

PnL

+$169.46

Record

—

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$301.4

Value

$415.09

PnL

+$113.69

Record

46%

519-610 (1129)

0xb543...5d5e

Invested

$362.53

Value

$403.96

PnL

+$41.43

Record

—

machinelearned

Invested

$86.79

Value

$390.69

PnL

+$303.89

Record

41%

580-851 (1431)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$336.85

Value

$386.76

PnL

+$64.71

Record

34%

394-770 (1164)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$318.38

Value

$376.89

PnL

+$58.51

Record

53%

4144-3610 (7754)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$399.72

Value

$372.45

PnL

+$52.48

Record

26%

417-1159 (1576)

stepahead

Invested

$239.32

Value

$304.43

PnL

+$65.11

Record

54%

3778-3168 (6946)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$266.15

Value

$296.48

PnL

+$30.33

Record

51%

404-385 (789)

0x280e...fbd8

Invested

$202.26

Value

$279.61

PnL

+$77.35

Record

—

0x9412...0cd0

Invested

$126.43

Value

$273.07

PnL

+$146.64

Record

—

0x9417...6e5e

Invested

$181

Value

$255.05

PnL

+$74.05

Record

—

0xba67...4727ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.62

Value

$231.19

PnL

+$9.57

Record

—

Both legs:

Up$104.7246.6¢+$76.36

Down$116.945.5¢-$66.8

0x4483...54c6

Invested

$222.73

Value

$222.58

PnL

-$0.15

Record

—

0xdc3f...4fa0

Invested

$184.16

Value

$203.7

PnL

+$28.23

Record

—

0x239e...1c10

Invested

$144.03

Value

$203.26

PnL

+$59.23

Record

—

almach

Invested

$227.97

Value

$192.4

PnL

-$35.57

Record

47%

654-750 (1404)

bosona

Invested

$144.84

Value

$168.42

PnL

+$23.58

Record

50%

3878-3890 (7768)

asdaefef

Invested

$137.51

Value

$150.33

PnL

+$13.01

Record

66%

1776-921 (2697)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

35 of 58 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.