Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 53%
2 arb excluded
$9.2K
$-5.7K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 59 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | — |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 74.5¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 49% 767-785 (1552) |
94 0x9417...6e5eCTR | Upavg 52.2¢ | $717.35 | — | -$717.35 | — |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 52.6¢ | $772.79 | — | -$737.64 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.1¢ | $609.94 | $514.98 | -$94.96 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
94 0x9412...0cd0CTR | Upavg 81.5¢ | $691.99 | — | -$602.42 | — |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $352.48 | $455.27 | +$102.79 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $325.43 | $500.67 | +$175.24 | — |
37 0x3708...daf9ARB<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $207.99 | $337.99 | +$130 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17¢ | $57.46 | $337.99 | +$280.53 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35¢ | $150.54 | — | -$150.54 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 49.8¢ | $270.87 | $327.54 | +$56.67 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.9¢ | $384.9 | $322.99 | -$61.91 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $314.32 | $280.74 | -$33.58 | 50% 1317-1303 (2620) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $307.63 | $240 | -$58.43 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 55.7¢ | $264.04 | $239.53 | -$20.66 | 53% 1134-1003 (2137) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 58.8¢ | $207.17 | $265.59 | +$58.42 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 61¢ | $191.24 | $202.58 | +$11.34 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 77.9¢ | $176.43 | $194.93 | +$18.5 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
BO bosona | Downavg 68.6¢ | $190.06 | $170.78 | -$19.28 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
56 0x568b...0b3b | Downavg 81.8¢ | $195.21 | $212.28 | +$17.07 | — |
85 0x855e...5189 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $144 | $205.91 | +$61.91 | — |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 59.3¢ | $181.7 | — | -$181.7 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
B5 0xb543...5d5eCTR | Upavg 45.6¢ | $273.49 | — | -$273.49 | — |
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0 | Downavg 56¢ | $150.59 | $150.15 | +$5.86 | — |
42 0x424e...263b | Downavg 66.7¢ | $165.74 | $146.47 | -$13.36 | — |
28 0x280e...fbd8 | Downavg 16¢ | $29.29 | $169 | +$139.71 | — |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
—
Invested
$1,648.88
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
49%
767-785 (1552)
Invested
$717.35
Value
—
PnL
-$717.35
Record
—
Invested
$772.79
Value
—
PnL
-$737.64
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$609.94
Value
$514.98
PnL
-$94.96
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$691.99
Value
—
PnL
-$602.42
Record
—
Invested
$352.48
Value
$455.27
PnL
+$102.79
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
Invested
$325.43
Value
$500.67
PnL
+$175.24
Record
—
Invested
$207.99
Value
$337.99
PnL
+$130
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$270.87
Value
$327.54
PnL
+$56.67
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$384.9
Value
$322.99
PnL
-$61.91
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$314.32
Value
$280.74
PnL
-$33.58
Record
50%
1317-1303 (2620)
Invested
$307.63
Value
$240
PnL
-$58.43
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$264.04
Value
$239.53
PnL
-$20.66
Record
53%
1134-1003 (2137)
Invested
$207.17
Value
$265.59
PnL
+$58.42
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$191.24
Value
$202.58
PnL
+$11.34
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Invested
$176.43
Value
$194.93
PnL
+$18.5
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
Invested
$190.06
Value
$170.78
PnL
-$19.28
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$195.21
Value
$212.28
PnL
+$17.07
Record
—
Invested
$144
Value
$205.91
PnL
+$61.91
Record
—
Invested
$181.7
Value
—
PnL
-$181.7
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Invested
$273.49
Value
—
PnL
-$273.49
Record
—
Invested
$150.59
Value
$150.15
PnL
+$5.86
Record
—
Invested
$165.74
Value
$146.47
PnL
-$13.36
Record
—
Invested
$29.29
Value
$169
PnL
+$139.71
Record
—
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x5e4a...be6b
Down — $3.5K
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
0x9417...6e5e
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $514.98
0x9412...0cd0
CTRUp — $0
0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335
Down — $455.27
0xcd30...2dd0
Down — $500.67
0x3708...daf9
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $327.54