Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Up 64%
8 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$15.06
Smart Money Signal
30 of 47 top traders (64%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 90.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$271.99 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 41.6¢ | $315.2 | — | -$315.2 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
38 38791873984189 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $262.86 | $543.47 | +$280.6 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 61.2¢ | $163.96 | $254.64 | +$90.68 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $168.08 | $200 | +$31.92 | 51% 406-397 (803) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $97 | $200 | +$103 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.5¢ | $71.08 | — | -$71.08 | |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $178.34 | $195.09 | +$16.74 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.3¢ | $107.83 | $195.09 | +$87.26 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.6¢ | $70.51 | — | -$70.51 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 54.8¢ | $193.77 | $177.72 | -$16.05 | 50% 1317-1303 (2620) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 47.8¢ | $116.65 | $172.18 | +$55.53 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 56.4¢ | $198.85 | $174.85 | -$16.34 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $163.19 | $164.84 | +$1.65 | 98% 1899-39 (1938) |
B5 0xb543...5d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 46.8¢ | $170.14 | $141.98 | -$28.16 | — |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.8¢ | $89.52 | — | -$89.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.8¢ | $80.61 | $141.98 | +$61.36 | |
21 0x21d0...e8d7 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $147.5 | $300 | +$152.5 | — |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 47.7¢ | $154.51 | — | -$154.51 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $161.52 | $142.82 | -$18.7 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.6¢ | $92.32 | $142.82 | +$50.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.6¢ | $69.2 | — | -$69.2 | |
 BoneOhioARB<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $117.48 | $99.99 | -$17.49 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $64.49 | — | -$64.49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $52.99 | $99.99 | +$46.99 | |
42 0x424e...263b | Upavg 52.1¢ | $84.42 | $128.22 | +$43.8 | — |
94 0x9417...6e5e | Upavg 81.4¢ | $141.66 | $116.25 | -$25.41 | — |
C3 0xc387...e4f4CTR | Downavg 41.1¢ | $105.3 | — | -$105.3 | — |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $96.35 | $85 | -$11.35 | 44% 990-1249 (2239) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42¢ | $52.5 | — | -$52.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.6¢ | $43.85 | $85 | +$41.15 | |
1B 0x1b41...0b56ARB<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $88.78 | $111.7 | +$22.92 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $62.6 | $111.7 | +$49.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40¢ | $26.18 | — | -$26.18 | |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $86.61 | $84.83 | -$1.78 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 38.3¢ | $80.4 | $65 | -$15.41 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.8¢ | $36.3 | $65 | +$28.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.3¢ | $44.11 | — | -$44.11 | |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $66.8 | $80 | +$26.4 | 53% 4144-3610 (7754) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $52.61 | $78.66 | +$26.05 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0<$100 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $86.08 | $78.01 | +$6.02 | — |
Invested
$2,649.44
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$271.99
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$315.2
Value
—
PnL
-$315.2
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$262.86
Value
$543.47
PnL
+$280.6
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
machinelearnedInvested
$163.96
Value
$254.64
PnL
+$90.68
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$168.08
Value
$200
PnL
+$31.92
Record
51%
406-397 (803)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.34
Value
$195.09
PnL
+$16.74
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$193.77
Value
$177.72
PnL
-$16.05
Record
50%
1317-1303 (2620)
Invested
$116.65
Value
$172.18
PnL
+$55.53
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$198.85
Value
$174.85
PnL
-$16.34
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Invested
$163.19
Value
$164.84
PnL
+$1.65
Record
98%
1899-39 (1938)
Invested
$170.14
Value
$141.98
PnL
-$28.16
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$147.5
Value
$300
PnL
+$152.5
Record
—
Invested
$154.51
Value
—
PnL
-$154.51
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$161.52
Value
$142.82
PnL
-$18.7
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Both legs:
BoneOhioARB<$100Invested
$117.48
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$17.49
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Both legs:
Invested
$84.42
Value
$128.22
PnL
+$43.8
Record
—
Invested
$141.66
Value
$116.25
PnL
-$25.41
Record
—
Invested
$105.3
Value
—
PnL
-$105.3
Record
—
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$96.35
Value
$85
PnL
-$11.35
Record
44%
990-1249 (2239)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.78
Value
$111.7
PnL
+$22.92
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$86.61
Value
$84.83
PnL
-$1.78
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$80.4
Value
$65
PnL
-$15.41
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Both legs:
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$66.8
Value
$80
PnL
+$26.4
Record
53%
4144-3610 (7754)
Invested
$52.61
Value
$78.66
PnL
+$26.05
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$86.08
Value
$78.01
PnL
+$6.02
Record
—
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $2.9K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
38791873984189
Up — $543.47
machinelearned
Up — $254.64
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xcd30...2dd0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $177.72
CrouchPredictions
Up — $172.18
GoodFallen
Up — $174.85
hoodquant
Up — $164.84