Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 56%
2 arb excluded
$4.9K
-$543.3
Smart Money Signal
30 of 53 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Downavg 83.3¢ | $556.8 | $581.47 | +$24.66 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.5¢ | $428.68 | $469.87 | +$44.83 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 87.1¢ | $445.96 | $375.83 | -$46.88 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
5E 0x5e8e...8212 | Downavg 99¢ | $343.53 | $347 | +$3.47 | — |
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Downavg 99¢ | $335.03 | $338.41 | +$3.38 | — |
ST stepahead | Downavg 84.7¢ | $255.16 | $262.67 | +$7.52 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.9¢ | $231.78 | $260.08 | +$28.3 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
4C 0x4c94...ffad | Downavg 88.9¢ | $229.78 | $245.4 | +$15.62 | — |
23 0x239e...1c10 | Downavg 92.8¢ | $247.12 | $234.51 | -$12.61 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 83.2¢ | $201.74 | $200.14 | -$1.6 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $188.1 | $190 | +$1.9 | 98% 1899-39 (1938) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 75.4¢ | $145.56 | $143.96 | -$1.6 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 70.4¢ | $119.88 | $145.22 | +$32.71 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.2¢ | $235.15 | $144.26 | -$56.24 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 87¢ | $142.79 | $153.07 | +$10.27 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 82.3¢ | $142.91 | $120.43 | -$22.48 | 53% 1134-1003 (2137) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $88.86 | $81.23 | -$7.63 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84¢ | $68.23 | $81.23 | +$13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.7¢ | $20.62 | — | -$20.62 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 83.4¢ | $108.05 | $111 | +$11.95 | 53% 4144-3610 (7754) |
56 0x568b...0b3b | Downavg 91.6¢ | $96.36 | $100.63 | +$4.27 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $56.39 | $66.74 | +$10.35 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 4.4¢ | $46.23 | $38.02 | -$8.21 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56¢ | $21.29 | $38.02 | +$16.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.4¢ | $24.94 | — | -$24.94 | |
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $69.52 | $58.55 | -$10.97 | — |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $82.12 | $50.74 | -$31.38 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
94 0x9417...6e5eCTR | Upavg 36.5¢ | $129.94 | — | -$129.94 | — |
94 0x9412...0cd0<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $41.71 | $60.45 | +$18.74 | — |
Invested
$556.8
Value
$581.47
PnL
+$24.66
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$428.68
Value
$469.87
PnL
+$44.83
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$445.96
Value
$375.83
PnL
-$46.88
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$343.53
Value
$347
PnL
+$3.47
Record
—
Invested
$335.03
Value
$338.41
PnL
+$3.38
Record
—
Invested
$255.16
Value
$262.67
PnL
+$7.52
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
machinelearnedInvested
$231.78
Value
$260.08
PnL
+$28.3
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$229.78
Value
$245.4
PnL
+$15.62
Record
—
Invested
$247.12
Value
$234.51
PnL
-$12.61
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$201.74
Value
$200.14
PnL
-$1.6
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Invested
$188.1
Value
$190
PnL
+$1.9
Record
98%
1899-39 (1938)
Invested
$145.56
Value
$143.96
PnL
-$1.6
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Invested
$119.88
Value
$145.22
PnL
+$32.71
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Invested
$235.15
Value
$144.26
PnL
-$56.24
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$142.79
Value
$153.07
PnL
+$10.27
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$142.91
Value
$120.43
PnL
-$22.48
Record
53%
1134-1003 (2137)
Invested
$88.86
Value
$81.23
PnL
-$7.63
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$108.05
Value
$111
PnL
+$11.95
Record
53%
4144-3610 (7754)
Invested
$96.36
Value
$100.63
PnL
+$4.27
Record
—
Invested
$56.39
Value
$66.74
PnL
+$10.35
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$46.23
Value
$38.02
PnL
-$8.21
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.52
Value
$58.55
PnL
-$10.97
Record
—
Invested
$82.12
Value
$50.74
PnL
-$31.38
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Invested
$129.94
Value
—
PnL
-$129.94
Record
—
Invested
$41.71
Value
$60.45
PnL
+$18.74
Record
—
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
Down — $581.47
Bonereaper
Down — $469.87
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $375.83
0x5e8e...8212
Down — $347
0x5e4a...be6b
Down — $338.41
stepahead
Down — $262.67
machinelearned
Down — $260.08
0x4c94...ffad
Down — $245.4
0x239e...1c10
Down — $234.51
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Down — $200.14