Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 48%
8 arb excluded
$13.9K
$-4.0K
Smart Money Signal
25 of 52 top traders (48%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 60.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$27.03 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 48.9¢ | $916.31 | — | -$910.93 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
28 0x280e...fbd8 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$88.36 | — |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 48.3¢ | $919.53 | $1.0K | +$88.8 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 78.4¢ | $915 | — | -$915 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
44 0x4483...54c6 | Upavg 70.8¢ | $560.82 | $792.17 | +$231.35 | — |
B5 0xb543...5d5e | Upavg 49.6¢ | $607.99 | $623.26 | +$16.28 | — |
B1 0xb129...890c | Upavg 67.6¢ | $490.45 | $599.78 | +$109.32 | — |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 45.3¢ | $559.2 | — | -$557.7 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 69.3¢ | $592.69 | — | -$592.69 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0 | Upavg 62.9¢ | $569.31 | $508.54 | -$60.77 | — |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $280.99 | $346.92 | +$65.93 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.9¢ | $103.9 | $346.92 | +$243.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $177.09 | — | -$177.09 | |
94 0x9412...0cd0ARB<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $300 | $299.99 | -$0.01 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21¢ | $63 | $299.99 | +$236.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79¢ | $237 | — | -$237 | |
42 0x424e...263b | Upavg 26.5¢ | $87.73 | $295.91 | +$208.18 | — |
 ohioism | Upavg 32.1¢ | $110.84 | $288.99 | +$178.16 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 49.8¢ | $302.04 | — | -$294.99 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
 BoneOhioCTR | Downavg 73¢ | $170.23 | — | -$170.23 | 73% 753-272 (1025) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 63.6¢ | $118.74 | — | -$118.74 | 53% 1134-1003 (2137) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.3¢ | $237.08 | $203.06 | -$31.1 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 61.1¢ | $242.34 | $181.81 | -$60.53 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.2¢ | $76.78 | $181.81 | +$105.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.1¢ | $165.55 | — | -$165.55 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 65.6¢ | $233.78 | — | -$233.78 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
23 0x239e...1c10CTR | Downavg 43.3¢ | $181.37 | — | -$181.37 | — |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $280.45 | $1.4K | +$1.1K | 49% 767-785 (1552) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.7¢ | $240.45 | $1.4K | +$1.1K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80¢ | $40 | — | -$40 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $231.14 | $145.36 | -$85.78 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.9¢ | $62.43 | $145.36 | +$82.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.9¢ | $168.71 | — | -$168.71 |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
—
Invested
$1,149.07
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$27.03
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$916.31
Value
—
PnL
-$910.93
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$1,131.37
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$88.36
Record
—
Invested
$919.53
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$88.8
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$915
Value
—
PnL
-$915
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$560.82
Value
$792.17
PnL
+$231.35
Record
—
Invested
$607.99
Value
$623.26
PnL
+$16.28
Record
—
Invested
$490.45
Value
$599.78
PnL
+$109.32
Record
—
Invested
$559.2
Value
—
PnL
-$557.7
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Invested
$592.69
Value
—
PnL
-$592.69
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$569.31
Value
$508.54
PnL
-$60.77
Record
—
Invested
$280.99
Value
$346.92
PnL
+$65.93
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Both legs:
Invested
$300
Value
$299.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$87.73
Value
$295.91
PnL
+$208.18
Record
—
ohioismInvested
$110.84
Value
$288.99
PnL
+$178.16
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$302.04
Value
—
PnL
-$294.99
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
BoneOhioCTRInvested
$170.23
Value
—
PnL
-$170.23
Record
73%
753-272 (1025)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$118.74
Value
—
PnL
-$118.74
Record
53%
1134-1003 (2137)
Invested
$237.08
Value
$203.06
PnL
-$31.1
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$242.34
Value
$181.81
PnL
-$60.53
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Both legs:
Invested
$233.78
Value
—
PnL
-$233.78
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$181.37
Value
—
PnL
-$181.37
Record
—
Invested
$280.45
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
49%
767-785 (1552)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.14
Value
$145.36
PnL
-$85.78
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x5e4a...be6b
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
0x280e...fbd8
Up — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.0K
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
0x4483...54c6
Up — $792.17
0xb543...5d5e
Up — $623.26
0xb129...890c
Up — $599.78
GoodFallen
CTRDown — $0