Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 71%
2 arb excluded
$10.2K
-$370.6
Smart Money Signal
37 of 52 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.2¢ | $654.09 | $705.55 | +$55.16 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $633.6 | $598.16 | -$35.44 | 51% 406-397 (803) |
23 0x239e...1c10 | Downavg 96.4¢ | $565.94 | $565.32 | -$0.62 | — |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79.1¢ | $511.89 | $544.37 | +$32.48 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 77.7¢ | $441.34 | $392.97 | -$23.74 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $279.82 | $251.9 | -$27.92 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.2¢ | $73.43 | — | -$73.43 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.9¢ | $206.39 | $251.9 | +$45.51 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 69.4¢ | $277.61 | $279.45 | +$1.84 | 46% 656-776 (1432) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 80.2¢ | $256.24 | $271.14 | +$14.89 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $224.44 | $265.9 | +$44.41 | — |
BO bosona | Downavg 78.1¢ | $171.97 | $216.53 | +$44.56 | 50% 3878-3890 (7768) |
AL almach | Downavg 86.9¢ | $186.06 | $189.7 | +$3.64 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 73.4¢ | $181.97 | $197.29 | +$15.32 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
B1 0xb129...890c | Downavg 89¢ | $179.22 | $168.99 | -$10.23 | — |
B5 0xb543...5d5e | Downavg 70.1¢ | $170.42 | $150.17 | -$20.25 | — |
94 0x9417...6e5e | Downavg 68¢ | $125.61 | $150.28 | +$24.67 | — |
 machinelearned | Downavg 75.9¢ | $137.76 | $119.67 | -$18.09 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $115.28 | $130.9 | +$19.77 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 98¢ | $115.59 | $110.36 | -$5.23 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
 ohioism | Downavg 77.3¢ | $119.2 | $114.76 | -$4.44 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 75¢ | $187.69 | $110.16 | -$52.9 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 84.1¢ | $91.1 | $106.86 | +$22.74 | 53% 1134-1003 (2137) |
42 0x424e...263b | Downavg 63.4¢ | $98.87 | $101.68 | +$2.81 | — |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 80.6¢ | $101.54 | $92.33 | -$9.21 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $159.96 | $92.2 | -$22.19 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
—
Invested
$654.09
Value
$705.55
PnL
+$55.16
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$633.6
Value
$598.16
PnL
-$35.44
Record
51%
406-397 (803)
Invested
$565.94
Value
$565.32
PnL
-$0.62
Record
—
Invested
$511.89
Value
$544.37
PnL
+$32.48
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$441.34
Value
$392.97
PnL
-$23.74
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$279.82
Value
$251.9
PnL
-$27.92
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Both legs:
Invested
$277.61
Value
$279.45
PnL
+$1.84
Record
46%
656-776 (1432)
Invested
$256.24
Value
$271.14
PnL
+$14.89
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$224.44
Value
$265.9
PnL
+$44.41
Record
—
Invested
$171.97
Value
$216.53
PnL
+$44.56
Record
50%
3878-3890 (7768)
Invested
$186.06
Value
$189.7
PnL
+$3.64
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$181.97
Value
$197.29
PnL
+$15.32
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Invested
$179.22
Value
$168.99
PnL
-$10.23
Record
—
Invested
$170.42
Value
$150.17
PnL
-$20.25
Record
—
Invested
$125.61
Value
$150.28
PnL
+$24.67
Record
—
machinelearnedInvested
$137.76
Value
$119.67
PnL
-$18.09
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$115.28
Value
$130.9
PnL
+$19.77
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
Invested
$115.59
Value
$110.36
PnL
-$5.23
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
ohioismInvested
$119.2
Value
$114.76
PnL
-$4.44
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$187.69
Value
$110.16
PnL
-$52.9
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$91.1
Value
$106.86
PnL
+$22.74
Record
53%
1134-1003 (2137)
Invested
$98.87
Value
$101.68
PnL
+$2.81
Record
—
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$101.54
Value
$92.33
PnL
-$9.21
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Invested
$159.96
Value
$92.2
PnL
-$22.19
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x5e4a...be6b
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $705.55
0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212
Down — $598.16
0x239e...1c10
Down — $565.32
blue.birds
Down — $544.37
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $392.97
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $279.45
stepahead
Down — $271.14
0xcd30...2dd0
Down — $265.9