Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Up 66%
8 arb excluded
$8.6K
-$681.51
Smart Money Signal
31 of 47 top traders (66%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | — |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 64.1¢ | $651.3 | $593.11 | -$33.97 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 71.4¢ | $380.45 | $398.5 | +$22.3 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 61.6¢ | $309.57 | $356.66 | +$47.09 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.6¢ | $310.16 | $333.35 | +$23.19 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 65.3¢ | $336.36 | $296.08 | -$40.28 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
AL almach | Upavg 74.5¢ | $355.73 | $422.07 | +$66.34 | 47% 654-750 (1404) |
4C 0x4c94...ffad | Upavg 56.9¢ | $147.05 | $230.34 | +$83.3 | — |
42 0x424e...263b | Upavg 67.7¢ | $162.79 | $197.94 | +$35.15 | — |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 36.9¢ | $241.14 | — | -$235.42 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $177.92 | $169 | -$8.92 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $106.47 | $169 | +$62.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $71.45 | — | -$71.45 | |
B5 0xb543...5d5eARB<$100 | Upavg 65.3¢ | $163.98 | $141.24 | -$22.74 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.3¢ | $92.28 | $141.24 | +$48.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.6¢ | $71.71 | — | -$71.71 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 65¢ | $122.37 | $146.9 | +$41.03 | 53% 4144-3610 (7754) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 59.9¢ | $142.45 | $125.32 | -$17.13 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.9¢ | $75.08 | $125.32 | +$50.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.4¢ | $67.37 | — | -$67.37 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 45.6¢ | $488.65 | — | -$488.65 | 48% 991-1090 (2081) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68.7¢ | $165.05 | $125.53 | -$37.6 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
23 0x239e...1c10 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $118.98 | $121.74 | +$2.76 | — |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 20.5¢ | $141.81 | $72.36 | -$69.44 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.5¢ | $52.44 | $72.36 | +$19.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.5¢ | $89.37 | — | -$89.37 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 64.6¢ | $76.22 | $110.24 | +$34.03 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
CD 0xcd30...2dd0ARB<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $111.57 | $96.62 | -$13.05 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.8¢ | $53.92 | $96.62 | +$42.7 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $55.52 | — | -$55.76 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 59.9¢ | $95.53 | $111.99 | +$16.46 | 48% 338-368 (706) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 61.2¢ | $84.92 | $108.68 | +$23.76 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
85 0x855e...5189ARB<$100 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $88.01 | $85.42 | -$2.59 | — |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.7¢ | $55.29 | $85.42 | +$30.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22¢ | $32.72 | — | -$32.72 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $102.42 | $111.22 | +$8.8 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.7¢ | $66.35 | $111.22 | +$44.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.8¢ | $36.07 | — | -$36.07 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $99.92 | $107.88 | +$7.95 | 59% 504-348 (852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.4¢ | $74.92 | $107.88 | +$32.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.9¢ | $25.01 | — | -$25.01 |
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
—
Invested
$651.3
Value
$593.11
PnL
-$33.97
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$380.45
Value
$398.5
PnL
+$22.3
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$309.57
Value
$356.66
PnL
+$47.09
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$310.16
Value
$333.35
PnL
+$23.19
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Invested
$336.36
Value
$296.08
PnL
-$40.28
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Invested
$355.73
Value
$422.07
PnL
+$66.34
Record
47%
654-750 (1404)
Invested
$147.05
Value
$230.34
PnL
+$83.3
Record
—
Invested
$162.79
Value
$197.94
PnL
+$35.15
Record
—
Invested
$241.14
Value
—
PnL
-$235.42
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Invested
$177.92
Value
$169
PnL
-$8.92
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
Both legs:
Invested
$163.98
Value
$141.24
PnL
-$22.74
Record
—
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$122.37
Value
$146.9
PnL
+$41.03
Record
53%
4144-3610 (7754)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$142.45
Value
$125.32
PnL
-$17.13
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Both legs:
Invested
$488.65
Value
—
PnL
-$488.65
Record
48%
991-1090 (2081)
Invested
$165.05
Value
$125.53
PnL
-$37.6
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Invested
$118.98
Value
$121.74
PnL
+$2.76
Record
—
Invested
$141.81
Value
$72.36
PnL
-$69.44
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$76.22
Value
$110.24
PnL
+$34.03
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$111.57
Value
$96.62
PnL
-$13.05
Record
—
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$95.53
Value
$111.99
PnL
+$16.46
Record
48%
338-368 (706)
Invested
$84.92
Value
$108.68
PnL
+$23.76
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$88.01
Value
$85.42
PnL
-$2.59
Record
—
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$102.42
Value
$111.22
PnL
+$8.8
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.92
Value
$107.88
PnL
+$7.95
Record
59%
504-348 (852)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x5e4a...be6b
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $593.11
blue.birds
Up — $398.5
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $356.66
ply-pm0
Up — $333.35
GoodFallen
Up — $296.08
almach
Up — $422.07
0x4c94...ffad
Up — $230.34
0x424e...263b
Up — $197.94
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0