Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
46
Down 72%
4 arb excluded
$7.0K
-$675.66
Smart Money Signal
33 of 46 top traders (72%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5E 0x5e4a...be6b | Downavg 99¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$27.77 | — |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 50.7¢ | $442.32 | — | -$442.32 | 59% 527-368 (895) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 69.3¢ | $276.89 | $356.38 | +$79.5 | 46% 519-610 (1129) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 50.1¢ | $483.74 | — | -$466.34 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 53.2¢ | $353.36 | $334.32 | -$13.85 | 40% 358-526 (884) |
94 0x9417...6e5e | Downavg 78.6¢ | $228.96 | $265.15 | +$36.2 | — |
23 0x239e...1c10 | Downavg 97¢ | $251.94 | $248.66 | -$3.28 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 61.7¢ | $336.54 | $237.12 | -$54.63 | 49% 767-785 (1552) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $199.74 | $202.66 | +$2.92 | 41% 381-544 (925) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.7¢ | $92.55 | $202.66 | +$110.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.6¢ | $107.19 | — | -$107.19 | |
1B 0x1b41...0b56 | Downavg 49¢ | $140.55 | $198.93 | +$73.91 | — |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 47.8¢ | $147.96 | $196.74 | +$72.73 | 52% 489-456 (945) |
42 0x424e...263b | Downavg 40.9¢ | $135.78 | $204.96 | +$69.18 | — |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $200.67 | $172.74 | -$27.84 | 26% 417-1159 (1576) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $151.76 | $185.97 | +$34.21 | 51% 404-385 (789) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $119.59 | $166.64 | +$47.05 | 51% 406-397 (803) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 61.4¢ | $153.45 | $160 | +$6.55 | 34% 394-770 (1164) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 70.2¢ | $145.55 | $146.08 | +$0.53 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
C3 0xc387...e4f4 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $94.24 | $216.38 | +$122.15 | — |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $47.38 | $99.99 | +$52.61 | 41% 580-851 (1431) |
85 0x855e...5189CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $91.69 | — | -$91.69 | — |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $83.28 | $114.97 | +$31.68 | 44% 990-1249 (2239) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $49.49 | $114.97 | +$65.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.4¢ | $33.8 | — | -$33.8 | |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $97.98 | $55 | -$42.98 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.4¢ | $73.28 | — | -$73.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.9¢ | $24.7 | $55 | +$30.3 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $68.65 | $86 | +$17.35 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $82.28 | $81.4 | -$0.88 | 54% 3778-3168 (6946) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.7¢ | $39.55 | — | -$39.55 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $42.72 | $81.4 | +$38.68 | |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $81.24 | — | -$78.74 | 48% 338-368 (706) |
Invested
$2,748.99
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$27.77
Record
—
Invested
$442.32
Value
—
PnL
-$442.32
Record
59%
527-368 (895)
Invested
$276.89
Value
$356.38
PnL
+$79.5
Record
46%
519-610 (1129)
Invested
$483.74
Value
—
PnL
-$466.34
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$353.36
Value
$334.32
PnL
-$13.85
Record
40%
358-526 (884)
Invested
$228.96
Value
$265.15
PnL
+$36.2
Record
—
Invested
$251.94
Value
$248.66
PnL
-$3.28
Record
—
Invested
$336.54
Value
$237.12
PnL
-$54.63
Record
49%
767-785 (1552)
Invested
$199.74
Value
$202.66
PnL
+$2.92
Record
41%
381-544 (925)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.55
Value
$198.93
PnL
+$73.91
Record
—
Invested
$147.96
Value
$196.74
PnL
+$72.73
Record
52%
489-456 (945)
Invested
$135.78
Value
$204.96
PnL
+$69.18
Record
—
Invested
$200.67
Value
$172.74
PnL
-$27.84
Record
26%
417-1159 (1576)
Invested
$151.76
Value
$185.97
PnL
+$34.21
Record
51%
404-385 (789)
Invested
$119.59
Value
$166.64
PnL
+$47.05
Record
51%
406-397 (803)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$153.45
Value
$160
PnL
+$6.55
Record
34%
394-770 (1164)
Invested
$145.55
Value
$146.08
PnL
+$0.53
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Invested
$94.24
Value
$216.38
PnL
+$122.15
Record
—
machinelearned<$100Invested
$47.38
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$52.61
Record
41%
580-851 (1431)
Invested
$91.69
Value
—
PnL
-$91.69
Record
—
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$83.28
Value
$114.97
PnL
+$31.68
Record
44%
990-1249 (2239)
Both legs:
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$97.98
Value
$55
PnL
-$42.98
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.65
Value
$86
PnL
+$17.35
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
Invested
$82.28
Value
$81.4
PnL
-$0.88
Record
54%
3778-3168 (6946)
Both legs:
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$81.24
Value
—
PnL
-$78.74
Record
48%
338-368 (706)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x5e4a...be6b
Down — $2.8K
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $356.38
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $334.32
0x9417...6e5e
Down — $265.15
0x239e...1c10
Down — $248.66
uninformedfloww
Down — $237.12
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1b41...0b56
Down — $198.93