Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$259.93

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 26 top traders (50%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,109

Combined PnL+$169.69

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,803

Combined PnL-$429.61

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 75¢	$897.63	$931.38	+$33.75	59% 527-368 (895)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$682.51	$722.86	+$40.35	52% 3801-3556 (7357)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$551.86	$722.86	+$171
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.2¢	$130.65	—	-$130.65
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 94¢	$506.11	$500.4	-$5.71	46% 656-776 (1432)
└ Down leg	Downavg 94¢	$470.31	$500.4	+$30.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 7.8¢	$35.8	—	-$35.8
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$430.77	$416.63	-$14.14	40% 358-526 (884)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.9¢	$303.88	$416.63	+$112.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.4¢	$126.89	—	-$126.89
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 73¢	$246.85	$233.62	-$12.58	41% 381-544 (925)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 71¢	$253.5	$218.8	-$34.7	54% 3778-3168 (6946)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$155.38	$218.8	+$63.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$98.12	—	-$98.12
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 75.7¢	$230.46	$263.41	+$32.95	59% 504-348 (852)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$155.3	$150	-$5.3	26% 417-1159 (1576)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$92	$150	+$58
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.9¢	$63.3	—	-$63.3
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$128.39	$134.34	+$5.95	34% 394-770 (1164)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.2¢	$103.76	$134.34	+$30.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.5¢	$24.63	—	-$24.63
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 62.1¢	$145.02	$124.11	-$5.61	46% 519-610 (1129)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 68.9¢	$110.29	$135.4	+$25.11	44% 990-1249 (2239)
BoneOhio	Downavg 81¢	$121.5	$150	+$28.5	73% 753-272 (1025)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$10.02	—	-$10.02	47% 619-701 (1320)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$71.81	$98.52	+$26.71	66% 1776-921 (2697)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$81.68	$74.06	-$7.61	48% 1014-1081 (2095)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.3¢	$53.57	$74.06	+$20.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.5¢	$28.1	—	-$28.1
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 26¢	$72.44	$43.76	-$28.68	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$44.44	—	-$44.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$28	$43.76	+$15.76
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$50.81	$67.06	+$16.26	48% 338-368 (706)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 25.3¢	$111.42	—	-$83.7	52% 489-456 (945)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100	Upavg 26.1¢	$70.28	—	-$70.28	51% 406-397 (803)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 77¢	$24.12	$21.74	-$2.38	50% 3878-3890 (7768)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 39¢	$156.8	—	-$89.48	49% 767-785 (1552)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$31.26	$60.82	+$29.56	51% 404-385 (789)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$44.07	—	-$44.07	49% 3495-3600 (7095)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 27.8¢	$64.02	—	-$16.63	62% 2020-1262 (3282)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4.3¢	$3.95	—	-$3.95	34% 549-1045 (1594)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$897.63

Value

$931.38

PnL

+$33.75

Record

59%

527-368 (895)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$682.51

Value

$722.86

PnL

+$40.35

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

Both legs:

Down$551.8676.3¢+$171

Up$130.6515.2¢-$130.65

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$506.11

Value

$500.4

PnL

-$5.71

Record

46%

656-776 (1432)

Both legs:

Down$470.3194¢+$30.09

Up$35.87.8¢-$35.8

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$430.77

Value

$416.63

PnL

-$14.14

Record

40%

358-526 (884)

Both legs:

Down$303.8872.9¢+$112.75

Up$126.8928.4¢-$126.89

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$246.85

Value

$233.62

PnL

-$12.58

Record

41%

381-544 (925)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$253.5

Value

$218.8

PnL

-$34.7

Record

54%

3778-3168 (6946)

Both legs:

Down$155.3871¢+$63.42

Up$98.1239.2¢-$98.12

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$230.46

Value

$263.41

PnL

+$32.95

Record

59%

504-348 (852)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$155.3

Value

$150

PnL

-$5.3

Record

26%

417-1159 (1576)

Both legs:

Down$9261.3¢+$58

Up$63.328.9¢-$63.3

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$128.39

Value

$134.34

PnL

+$5.95

Record

34%

394-770 (1164)

Both legs:

Down$103.7677.2¢+$30.58

Up$24.6320.5¢-$24.63

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$145.02

Value

$124.11

PnL

-$5.61

Record

46%

519-610 (1129)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$110.29

Value

$135.4

PnL

+$25.11

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$121.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$28.5

Record

73%

753-272 (1025)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

—

PnL

-$10.02

Record

47%

619-701 (1320)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$71.81

Value

$98.52

PnL

+$26.71

Record

66%

1776-921 (2697)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.68

Value

$74.06

PnL

-$7.61

Record

48%

1014-1081 (2095)

Both legs:

Down$53.5772.3¢+$20.49

Up$28.122.5¢-$28.1

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$72.44

Value

$43.76

PnL

-$28.68

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.81

Value

$67.06

PnL

+$16.26

Record

48%

338-368 (706)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$111.42

Value

—

PnL

-$83.7

Record

52%

489-456 (945)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100

Invested

$70.28

Value

—

PnL

-$70.28

Record

51%

406-397 (803)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$24.12

Value

$21.74

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

3878-3890 (7768)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$156.8

Value

—

PnL

-$89.48

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$31.26

Value

$60.82

PnL

+$29.56

Record

51%

404-385 (789)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$44.07

Value

—

PnL

-$44.07

Record

49%

3495-3600 (7095)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$64.02

Value

—

PnL

-$16.63

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

—

PnL

-$3.95

Record

34%

549-1045 (1594)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 26 top traders (50%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xee4888f9...0d1268

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794447300

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $931.38

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$14.14

GoodFallen

Down — $233.62

-$12.58

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$34.7

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $263.41

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $124.11

-$5.61

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