Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 55%
3 arb excluded
$5.5K
$33.61
Smart Money Signal
16 of 29 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 91.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$245.11 | 59% 510-360 (870) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 60.8¢ | $369.59 | $378.64 | +$56.08 | 52% 3766-3522 (7288) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $263.32 | $267 | +$3.68 | 98% 1855-39 (1894) |
 ohioism | Upavg 53.9¢ | $197.14 | $344.98 | +$147.84 | 48% 980-1048 (2028) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 56.2¢ | $178.84 | $204.21 | +$42.32 | 51% 474-448 (922) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 43.8¢ | $146.2 | — | -$146.2 | 48% 969-1064 (2033) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 51.1¢ | $165.34 | $284.95 | +$119.61 | 44% 955-1216 (2171) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 45.2¢ | $150.21 | — | -$132.21 | 41% 349-512 (861) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $128 | $128.13 | +$0.13 | 47% 601-679 (1280) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 83.7¢ | $140.33 | $127.28 | -$12.89 | 53% 1101-972 (2073) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 68.7¢ | $96.49 | $119.99 | +$23.5 | 53% 4130-3601 (7731) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $90.59 | $93.5 | +$2.91 | 50% 1269-1265 (2534) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 62¢ | $130.86 | — | -$130.86 | 50% 3857-3869 (7726) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $65.91 | $84.49 | +$18.58 | 51% 391-378 (769) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41¢ | $34.64 | $84.49 | +$49.85 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40¢ | $31.27 | — | -$31.27 | |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $78.9 | $83.46 | +$4.56 | 48% 325-358 (683) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.1¢ | $43.48 | $83.46 | +$39.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.8¢ | $35.42 | — | -$35.42 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 63.5¢ | $50.87 | $79.98 | +$29.11 | 59% 489-339 (828) |
ST stepahead<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $65.53 | $78.09 | +$12.56 | 54% 3758-3156 (6914) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 51¢ | $76.5 | $149.99 | +$73.5 | 74% 738-260 (998) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $96.03 | — | -$96.03 | 41% 373-529 (902) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 99.2¢ | $84.62 | $58.19 | -$26.43 | 46% 624-735 (1359) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $53.42 | $50.73 | -$2.69 | 26% 407-1145 (1552) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $24.86 | $50.73 | +$25.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $28.56 | — | -$28.56 | |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $51 | — | -$51 | 40% 564-836 (1400) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $15.96 | $35.69 | +$19.73 | 57% 4386-3257 (7643) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100 | Downavg 7.9¢ | $50.11 | — | -$42.79 | 46% 502-596 (1098) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $11.85 | — | -$11.85 | 50% 3458-3397 (6855) |
Invested
$2,699.23
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$245.11
Record
59%
510-360 (870)
Invested
$369.59
Value
$378.64
PnL
+$56.08
Record
52%
3766-3522 (7288)
Invested
$263.32
Value
$267
PnL
+$3.68
Record
98%
1855-39 (1894)
ohioismInvested
$197.14
Value
$344.98
PnL
+$147.84
Record
48%
980-1048 (2028)
Invested
$178.84
Value
$204.21
PnL
+$42.32
Record
51%
474-448 (922)
Invested
$146.2
Value
—
PnL
-$146.2
Record
48%
969-1064 (2033)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$165.34
Value
$284.95
PnL
+$119.61
Record
44%
955-1216 (2171)
Invested
$150.21
Value
—
PnL
-$132.21
Record
41%
349-512 (861)
Invested
$128
Value
$128.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
601-679 (1280)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$140.33
Value
$127.28
PnL
-$12.89
Record
53%
1101-972 (2073)
FairValueMachineInvested
$96.49
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$23.5
Record
53%
4130-3601 (7731)
Invested
$90.59
Value
$93.5
PnL
+$2.91
Record
50%
1269-1265 (2534)
Invested
$130.86
Value
—
PnL
-$130.86
Record
50%
3857-3869 (7726)
Invested
$65.91
Value
$84.49
PnL
+$18.58
Record
51%
391-378 (769)
Both legs:
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$78.9
Value
$83.46
PnL
+$4.56
Record
48%
325-358 (683)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.87
Value
$79.98
PnL
+$29.11
Record
59%
489-339 (828)
Invested
$65.53
Value
$78.09
PnL
+$12.56
Record
54%
3758-3156 (6914)
BoneOhioInvested
$76.5
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$73.5
Record
74%
738-260 (998)
Invested
$96.03
Value
—
PnL
-$96.03
Record
41%
373-529 (902)
Invested
$84.62
Value
$58.19
PnL
-$26.43
Record
46%
624-735 (1359)
Invested
$53.42
Value
$50.73
PnL
-$2.69
Record
26%
407-1145 (1552)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$51
Value
—
PnL
-$51
Record
40%
564-836 (1400)
Invested
$15.96
Value
$35.69
PnL
+$19.73
Record
57%
4386-3257 (7643)
Invested
$50.11
Value
—
PnL
-$42.79
Record
46%
502-596 (1098)
Invested
$11.85
Value
—
PnL
-$11.85
Record
50%
3458-3397 (6855)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $2.9K
blue.birds
Up — $378.64
hoodquant
Up — $267
ohioism
Up — $344.98
wzbbb
Up — $204.21
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $284.95
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $128.13
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $127.28