Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$115.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 32 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,442

Combined PnL+$402.74

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$286.97

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 71.4¢	$771.83	$899.27	+$127.43	59% 510-360 (870)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 71.9¢	$641.28	$576.2	-$65.08	41% 349-512 (861)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80.3¢	$507.56	$483.8	-$23.76	52% 3766-3522 (7288)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$232.02	$250.82	+$18.8	50% 1269-1265 (2534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$159.93	$250.82	+$90.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.1¢	$72.09	—	-$72.09
MO mo-money	Downavg 59.5¢	$140.33	$231.99	+$91.66	46% 632-753 (1385)
BO bosona	Downavg 55.1¢	$116.07	$204.82	+$88.74	50% 3857-3869 (7726)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 95.1¢	$259.05	$187.99	-$71.05	46% 502-596 (1098)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.8¢	$196.45	$187.41	-$9.04	26% 407-1145 (1552)
machinelearned	Downavg 83.7¢	$167.25	$187.94	+$20.69	40% 564-836 (1400)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$166.99	—	-$166.99	48% 969-1064 (2033)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 61.1¢	$182.55	$155.27	-$26.36	41% 373-529 (902)
ST stepahead	Downavg 68.9¢	$155.68	$151.55	-$4.13	54% 3758-3156 (6914)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 66.9¢	$126.01	$138.93	+$12.92	53% 4130-3601 (7731)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 59.8¢	$86.89	$118.81	+$37.02	51% 474-448 (922)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 78¢	$97.87	$110	+$12.13	34% 383-759 (1142)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 86.6¢	$110.47	$101.31	-$9.16	59% 489-339 (828)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 62¢	$66.55	$92.97	+$35.34	49% 3456-3566 (7022)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$84.46	$172.36	+$87.9	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$55.52	$80	+$24.48	44% 955-1216 (2171)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$54.59	$93.93	+$39.34	46% 624-735 (1359)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 62.1¢	$102.28	$75.73	-$1.7	53% 1101-972 (2073)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 62¢	$43.52	$39.08	+$4.14	48% 325-358 (683)
PA Papeasy<$100	Downavg 54¢	$40.5	$74.99	+$34.5	50% 3458-3397 (6855)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$70.2	—	-$70.2	48% 980-1048 (2028)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Downavg 82¢	$42.93	$29.99	-$12.94	50% 392-393 (785)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$771.83

Value

$899.27

PnL

+$127.43

Record

59%

510-360 (870)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$641.28

Value

$576.2

PnL

-$65.08

Record

41%

349-512 (861)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$507.56

Value

$483.8

PnL

-$23.76

Record

52%

3766-3522 (7288)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$232.02

Value

$250.82

PnL

+$18.8

Record

50%

1269-1265 (2534)

Both legs:

Down$159.9363.8¢+$90.9

Up$72.0929.1¢-$72.09

mo-money

Down

Invested

$140.33

Value

$231.99

PnL

+$91.66

Record

46%

632-753 (1385)

bosona

Down

Invested

$116.07

Value

$204.82

PnL

+$88.74

Record

50%

3857-3869 (7726)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$259.05

Value

$187.99

PnL

-$71.05

Record

46%

502-596 (1098)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$196.45

Value

$187.41

PnL

-$9.04

Record

26%

407-1145 (1552)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$167.25

Value

$187.94

PnL

+$20.69

Record

40%

564-836 (1400)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$166.99

Value

—

PnL

-$166.99

Record

48%

969-1064 (2033)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$182.55

Value

$155.27

PnL

-$26.36

Record

41%

373-529 (902)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$155.68

Value

$151.55

PnL

-$4.13

Record

54%

3758-3156 (6914)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$126.01

Value

$138.93

PnL

+$12.92

Record

53%

4130-3601 (7731)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$86.89

Value

$118.81

PnL

+$37.02

Record

51%

474-448 (922)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$97.87

Value

$110

PnL

+$12.13

Record

34%

383-759 (1142)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$110.47

Value

$101.31

PnL

-$9.16

Record

59%

489-339 (828)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$66.55

Value

$92.97

PnL

+$35.34

Record

49%

3456-3566 (7022)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$84.46

Value

$172.36

PnL

+$87.9

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$55.52

Value

$80

PnL

+$24.48

Record

44%

955-1216 (2171)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$54.59

Value

$93.93

PnL

+$39.34

Record

46%

624-735 (1359)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$102.28

Value

$75.73

PnL

-$1.7

Record

53%

1101-972 (2073)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$43.52

Value

$39.08

PnL

+$4.14

Record

48%

325-358 (683)

Papeasy<$100

Down

Invested

$40.5

Value

$74.99

PnL

+$34.5

Record

50%

3458-3397 (6855)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$70.2

Value

—

PnL

-$70.2

Record

48%

980-1048 (2028)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Down

Invested

$42.93

Value

$29.99

PnL

-$12.94

Record

50%

392-393 (785)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 32 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x21c4569f...415441

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794442200

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $899.27

+$127.43

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $576.2

-$65.08

blue.birds

Down — $483.8

-$23.76

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.8

mo-money

Down — $231.99

+$91.66

bosona

Down — $204.82

+$88.74

CrouchPredictions

Down — $187.99

-$71.05

ply-pm0

Down — $187.41

-$9.04

machinelearned

Down — $187.94

+$20.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$166.99

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