Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$184.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 28 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,650

Combined PnL+$99.29

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,523

Combined PnL-$284.09

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 91.1¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$8.59	59% 510-360 (870)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$611.62	$617.8	+$6.18	98% 1855-39 (1894)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 83.4¢	$473.47	$468.67	+$1.6	52% 3766-3522 (7288)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 59.6¢	$360	$389.19	+$29.19	46% 502-596 (1098)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$304.45	$272.01	-$32.44	48% 969-1064 (2033)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$179.65	—	-$179.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$124.79	$272.01	+$147.22
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 70.2¢	$322.28	$249.95	-$72.33	41% 349-512 (861)
ST stepahead	Downavg 73.3¢	$213.29	$189.58	-$23.7	54% 3758-3156 (6914)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 47.5¢	$125.28	$158.97	+$33.69	26% 407-1145 (1552)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63.4¢	$138.01	$149.99	+$11.97	50% 1269-1265 (2534)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 82.4¢	$139.01	$152.93	+$13.92	59% 489-339 (828)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.6¢	$99.12	$128.31	+$29.19	53% 1101-972 (2073)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 56.6¢	$127.25	$114.26	-$12.99	41% 373-529 (902)
machinelearned	Downavg 73.6¢	$175.33	$232.93	+$57.6	40% 564-836 (1400)
MO mo-money	Downavg 87¢	$120.86	$138.92	+$18.06	46% 632-753 (1385)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 35.4¢	$76.3	—	-$69.35	51% 474-448 (922)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$28.01	—	-$28.01	34% 383-759 (1142)
OhioAICTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$42.62	—	-$42.62	48% 325-358 (683)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 51¢	$21.59	$36.83	+$15.25	51% 391-378 (769)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$20.24	—	-$20.24	53% 4130-3601 (7731)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$43.62	—	-$43.62	48% 980-1048 (2028)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$15.97	—	-$15.97	52% 182-168 (350)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$9.48	—	-$9.48	44% 955-1216 (2171)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.5¢	$24.15	—	-$24.15	47% 601-679 (1280)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$6.8	—	-$6.8	48% 583-642 (1225)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$12.4	—	-$12.4	50% 3458-3397 (6855)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,625.83

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$8.59

Record

59%

510-360 (870)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$611.62

Value

$617.8

PnL

+$6.18

Record

98%

1855-39 (1894)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$473.47

Value

$468.67

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

3766-3522 (7288)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$360

Value

$389.19

PnL

+$29.19

Record

46%

502-596 (1098)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$304.45

Value

$272.01

PnL

-$32.44

Record

48%

969-1064 (2033)

Both legs:

Up$179.6546.6¢-$179.65

Down$124.7945.9¢+$147.22

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$322.28

Value

$249.95

PnL

-$72.33

Record

41%

349-512 (861)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$213.29

Value

$189.58

PnL

-$23.7

Record

54%

3758-3156 (6914)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$125.28

Value

$158.97

PnL

+$33.69

Record

26%

407-1145 (1552)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$138.01

Value

$149.99

PnL

+$11.97

Record

50%

1269-1265 (2534)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$139.01

Value

$152.93

PnL

+$13.92

Record

59%

489-339 (828)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$99.12

Value

$128.31

PnL

+$29.19

Record

53%

1101-972 (2073)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$127.25

Value

$114.26

PnL

-$12.99

Record

41%

373-529 (902)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$175.33

Value

$232.93

PnL

+$57.6

Record

40%

564-836 (1400)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$120.86

Value

$138.92

PnL

+$18.06

Record

46%

632-753 (1385)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$76.3

Value

—

PnL

-$69.35

Record

51%

474-448 (922)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100

Invested

$28.01

Value

—

PnL

-$28.01

Record

34%

383-759 (1142)

OhioAICTR<$100

Invested

$42.62

Value

—

PnL

-$42.62

Record

48%

325-358 (683)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$21.59

Value

$36.83

PnL

+$15.25

Record

51%

391-378 (769)

FairValueMachineCTR<$100

Invested

$20.24

Value

—

PnL

-$20.24

Record

53%

4130-3601 (7731)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$43.62

Value

—

PnL

-$43.62

Record

48%

980-1048 (2028)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$15.97

Value

—

PnL

-$15.97

Record

52%

182-168 (350)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$9.48

Value

—

PnL

-$9.48

Record

44%

955-1216 (2171)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$24.15

Value

—

PnL

-$24.15

Record

47%

601-679 (1280)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

—

PnL

-$6.8

Record

48%

583-642 (1225)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

—

PnL

-$12.4

Record

50%

3458-3397 (6855)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 28 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0e51f072...db76c9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794441900

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $1.6K

-$8.59

hoodquant

Down — $617.8

+$6.18

blue.birds

Down — $468.67

+$1.6

CrouchPredictions

Down — $389.19

+$29.19

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$32.44

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $249.95

-$72.33

stepahead

Down — $189.58

-$23.7

ply-pm0

Down — $158.97

+$33.69

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $149.99

+$11.97

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $152.93

+$13.92

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