Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Up 86%
2 arb excluded
$7.5K
$1.2K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 28 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO bosona | Upavg 67¢ | $734.55 | $1.0K | +$265.45 | 50% 3857-3869 (7726) |
AL almach | Upavg 67¢ | $670 | $1.0K | +$330 | 46% 624-735 (1359) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $705.5 | $706.21 | +$0.71 | 47% 601-679 (1280) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 85¢ | $704.69 | $676.89 | +$20.21 | 52% 3766-3522 (7288) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 67.2¢ | $525.06 | $780.59 | +$255.52 | 46% 632-753 (1385) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 68¢ | $400.74 | $589.05 | +$188.3 | 40% 564-836 (1400) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $463.95 | $469.04 | +$5.1 | 50% 1269-1265 (2534) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 51.6¢ | $295.8 | $418.04 | +$122.24 | 59% 510-360 (870) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 50.2¢ | $232.53 | $266.67 | +$34.14 | 41% 349-512 (861) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63¢ | $235.21 | $261.02 | +$25.81 | 54% 3758-3156 (6914) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 23.3¢ | $244.04 | $214.75 | -$29.29 | 46% 502-596 (1098) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.3¢ | $112.24 | $214.75 | +$102.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.3¢ | $131.8 | — | -$131.8 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 55.2¢ | $217.14 | $244.7 | +$27.56 | 41% 373-529 (902) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 67.8¢ | $151.91 | $149.85 | -$2.07 | 53% 1101-972 (2073) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 63.9¢ | $130.18 | $108 | -$22.18 | 26% 407-1145 (1552) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 61.4¢ | $74.31 | $85.17 | +$10.87 | 34% 383-759 (1142) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $56.09 | $86.19 | +$30.1 | 44% 955-1216 (2171) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Downavg 43.8¢ | $109.61 | — | -$109.61 | 50% 392-393 (785) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $53.85 | $75 | +$21.15 | 50% 3458-3397 (6855) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 35.4¢ | $105.1 | — | -$86.57 | 53% 4130-3601 (7731) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $63.03 | $54.4 | -$8.63 | 51% 391-378 (769) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60¢ | $37.46 | — | -$37.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $25.57 | $54.4 | +$28.83 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $53.6 | $90.45 | +$36.85 | 49% 3456-3566 (7022) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $43.66 | $53.74 | +$10.08 | 48% 325-358 (683) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $54.15 | $42.33 | -$10.42 | 51% 474-448 (922) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 58.5¢ | $29.25 | $49.99 | +$20.74 | 59% 489-339 (828) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $22.27 | $45.83 | +$23.56 | 48% 583-642 (1225) |
Invested
$734.55
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$265.45
Record
50%
3857-3869 (7726)
Invested
$670
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$330
Record
46%
624-735 (1359)
Invested
$705.5
Value
$706.21
PnL
+$0.71
Record
47%
601-679 (1280)
Invested
$704.69
Value
$676.89
PnL
+$20.21
Record
52%
3766-3522 (7288)
Invested
$525.06
Value
$780.59
PnL
+$255.52
Record
46%
632-753 (1385)
machinelearnedInvested
$400.74
Value
$589.05
PnL
+$188.3
Record
40%
564-836 (1400)
Invested
$463.95
Value
$469.04
PnL
+$5.1
Record
50%
1269-1265 (2534)
Invested
$295.8
Value
$418.04
PnL
+$122.24
Record
59%
510-360 (870)
Invested
$232.53
Value
$266.67
PnL
+$34.14
Record
41%
349-512 (861)
Invested
$235.21
Value
$261.02
PnL
+$25.81
Record
54%
3758-3156 (6914)
Invested
$244.04
Value
$214.75
PnL
-$29.29
Record
46%
502-596 (1098)
Both legs:
Invested
$217.14
Value
$244.7
PnL
+$27.56
Record
41%
373-529 (902)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$151.91
Value
$149.85
PnL
-$2.07
Record
53%
1101-972 (2073)
Invested
$130.18
Value
$108
PnL
-$22.18
Record
26%
407-1145 (1552)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$74.31
Value
$85.17
PnL
+$10.87
Record
34%
383-759 (1142)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$56.09
Value
$86.19
PnL
+$30.1
Record
44%
955-1216 (2171)
Invested
$109.61
Value
—
PnL
-$109.61
Record
50%
392-393 (785)
Invested
$53.85
Value
$75
PnL
+$21.15
Record
50%
3458-3397 (6855)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$105.1
Value
—
PnL
-$86.57
Record
53%
4130-3601 (7731)
Invested
$63.03
Value
$54.4
PnL
-$8.63
Record
51%
391-378 (769)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.6
Value
$90.45
PnL
+$36.85
Record
49%
3456-3566 (7022)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$43.66
Value
$53.74
PnL
+$10.08
Record
48%
325-358 (683)
Invested
$54.15
Value
$42.33
PnL
-$10.42
Record
51%
474-448 (922)
Invested
$29.25
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$20.74
Record
59%
489-339 (828)
Invested
$22.27
Value
$45.83
PnL
+$23.56
Record
48%
583-642 (1225)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
bosona
Up — $1.0K
almach
Up — $1.0K
0x50f7
Up — $706.21
blue.birds
Up — $676.89
mo-money
Up — $780.59
machinelearned
Up — $589.05
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $469.04
Bonereaper
Up — $418.04
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $266.67
stepahead
Up — $261.02