Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 65%
5 arb excluded
$4.5K
$231.94
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $558.71 | $559.4 | +$0.69 | 41% 349-512 (861) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $254.51 | $559.4 | +$304.89 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38¢ | $304.19 | — | -$304.19 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 56.8¢ | $516.6 | $508.82 | -$7.78 | 59% 510-360 (870) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 46.1¢ | $448.84 | $510.34 | +$75.91 | 46% 502-596 (1098) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 54.2¢ | $311.18 | $350.91 | +$39.74 | 54% 3758-3156 (6914) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $221.19 | $265.76 | +$44.57 | 53% 1101-972 (2073) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $140.97 | $265.76 | +$124.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.5¢ | $80.22 | — | -$80.22 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 61.6¢ | $206.5 | $335.08 | +$128.58 | 46% 632-753 (1385) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 53.3¢ | $196.54 | $203.9 | +$7.36 | 48% 325-358 (683) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 65.6¢ | $158.29 | $197.96 | +$39.67 | 59% 489-339 (828) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 62.6¢ | $237.05 | $191.23 | -$45.82 | 52% 3766-3522 (7288) |
BO bosona | Upavg 60.2¢ | $179.8 | $298.63 | +$118.84 | 50% 3857-3869 (7726) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $194.54 | $126.75 | -$67.79 | 51% 474-448 (922) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $124 | — | -$124 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.7¢ | $70.54 | $126.75 | +$56.21 | |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 34.6¢ | $182.28 | — | -$182.28 | 26% 407-1145 (1552) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $177.51 | $153.1 | -$24.41 | 50% 1269-1265 (2534) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.4¢ | $81.08 | — | -$81.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $96.43 | $153.1 | +$56.67 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 38.1¢ | $169.17 | $134.38 | -$34.79 | 41% 373-529 (902) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $67.02 | $134.38 | +$67.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.1¢ | $102.15 | — | -$102.15 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 63.8¢ | $92.29 | $139.27 | +$46.98 | 40% 564-836 (1400) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 63.4¢ | $108.12 | $129.14 | +$21.02 | 50% 392-393 (785) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 55.5¢ | $79.68 | $107.18 | +$27.5 | 53% 4130-3601 (7731) |
AL almach | Upavg 65.1¢ | $76.6 | $112.37 | +$35.77 | 46% 624-735 (1359) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 46.7¢ | $56.79 | $78.45 | +$21.66 | 44% 955-1216 (2171) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $28.09 | $60.89 | +$32.8 | 34% 383-759 (1142) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.3¢ | $81.94 | — | -$81.94 | 49% 3456-3566 (7022) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $40.88 | — | -$40.88 | 48% 980-1048 (2028) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.1¢ | $9.91 | — | -$9.91 | 38% 697-1139 (1836) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $27.89 | $14.99 | +$13.19 | 58% 1973-1454 (3427) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.8¢ | $3.92 | — | -$3.92 | 50% 3458-3397 (6855) |
Invested
$558.71
Value
$559.4
PnL
+$0.69
Record
41%
349-512 (861)
Both legs:
Invested
$516.6
Value
$508.82
PnL
-$7.78
Record
59%
510-360 (870)
Invested
$448.84
Value
$510.34
PnL
+$75.91
Record
46%
502-596 (1098)
Invested
$311.18
Value
$350.91
PnL
+$39.74
Record
54%
3758-3156 (6914)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$221.19
Value
$265.76
PnL
+$44.57
Record
53%
1101-972 (2073)
Both legs:
Invested
$206.5
Value
$335.08
PnL
+$128.58
Record
46%
632-753 (1385)
OhioAIInvested
$196.54
Value
$203.9
PnL
+$7.36
Record
48%
325-358 (683)
Invested
$158.29
Value
$197.96
PnL
+$39.67
Record
59%
489-339 (828)
Invested
$237.05
Value
$191.23
PnL
-$45.82
Record
52%
3766-3522 (7288)
Invested
$179.8
Value
$298.63
PnL
+$118.84
Record
50%
3857-3869 (7726)
Invested
$194.54
Value
$126.75
PnL
-$67.79
Record
51%
474-448 (922)
Both legs:
Invested
$182.28
Value
—
PnL
-$182.28
Record
26%
407-1145 (1552)
Invested
$177.51
Value
$153.1
PnL
-$24.41
Record
50%
1269-1265 (2534)
Both legs:
Invested
$169.17
Value
$134.38
PnL
-$34.79
Record
41%
373-529 (902)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$92.29
Value
$139.27
PnL
+$46.98
Record
40%
564-836 (1400)
Invested
$108.12
Value
$129.14
PnL
+$21.02
Record
50%
392-393 (785)
FairValueMachineInvested
$79.68
Value
$107.18
PnL
+$27.5
Record
53%
4130-3601 (7731)
Invested
$76.6
Value
$112.37
PnL
+$35.77
Record
46%
624-735 (1359)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$56.79
Value
$78.45
PnL
+$21.66
Record
44%
955-1216 (2171)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$28.09
Value
$60.89
PnL
+$32.8
Record
34%
383-759 (1142)
Invested
$81.94
Value
—
PnL
-$81.94
Record
49%
3456-3566 (7022)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$40.88
Value
—
PnL
-$40.88
Record
48%
980-1048 (2028)
Invested
$9.91
Value
—
PnL
-$9.91
Record
38%
697-1139 (1836)
Invested
$27.89
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$13.19
Record
58%
1973-1454 (3427)
Invested
$3.92
Value
—
PnL
-$3.92
Record
50%
3458-3397 (6855)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $508.82
CrouchPredictions
Up — $510.34
stepahead
Up — $350.91
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $335.08
OhioAI
Up — $203.9
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $197.96
blue.birds
Up — $191.23
bosona
Up — $298.63