Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Down 75%
3 arb excluded
$7.4K
$183.83
Smart Money Signal
24 of 32 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 92.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$59.99 | 59% 510-360 (870) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 78.4¢ | $762.52 | $693.91 | -$41.91 | 41% 349-512 (861) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.5¢ | $554.82 | $614.6 | +$59.78 | 46% 502-596 (1098) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 90.2¢ | $529.91 | $532.51 | +$23.34 | 53% 1101-972 (2073) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80.9¢ | $488.97 | $524.07 | +$40.07 | 52% 3766-3522 (7288) |
AL almach | Downavg 74.5¢ | $344.13 | $421.52 | +$77.39 | 46% 624-735 (1359) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78¢ | $389.81 | $386.18 | -$2.74 | 26% 407-1145 (1552) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 74.1¢ | $380.32 | $379.64 | +$4.81 | 41% 373-529 (902) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $319.71 | $347.29 | +$27.58 | 50% 1269-1265 (2534) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.5¢ | $244.81 | $347.29 | +$102.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.4¢ | $74.9 | — | -$74.9 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 77.8¢ | $275.19 | $284.96 | +$9.77 | 54% 3758-3156 (6914) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 84.1¢ | $224.09 | $223.69 | -$0.4 | 53% 4130-3601 (7731) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $116.98 | $99.98 | -$17 | 46% 632-753 (1385) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6¢ | $30 | — | -$30 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87¢ | $86.98 | $99.98 | +$13 | |
 machinelearned | Downavg 53¢ | $96.98 | $171.55 | +$74.57 | 40% 564-836 (1400) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $136.06 | $119.17 | -$16.89 | 50% 3857-3869 (7726) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82¢ | $97.72 | $119.17 | +$21.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6.2¢ | $38.34 | — | -$38.34 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 87.3¢ | $164.99 | $160 | -$4.99 | 59% 489-339 (828) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 86.9¢ | $155.11 | $145.77 | -$9.34 | 49% 3456-3566 (7022) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $151.32 | $106.34 | -$44.98 | 47% 601-679 (1280) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 88.3¢ | $112.87 | $110 | -$2.87 | 34% 383-759 (1142) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $86.49 | $85.53 | +$22.24 | 48% 980-1048 (2028) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $45.31 | $52.3 | +$6.98 | 51% 474-448 (922) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $26.4 | $40 | +$13.6 | 38% 697-1139 (1836) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $32.8 | $40 | +$7.2 | 57% 4386-3257 (7643) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $20.12 | $23.34 | +$3.22 | 50% 392-393 (785) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $30 | — | -$30 | 48% 969-1064 (2033) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $14.12 | $16.27 | +$2.15 | 51% 391-378 (769) |
Invested
$1,805.37
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$59.99
Record
59%
510-360 (870)
Invested
$762.52
Value
$693.91
PnL
-$41.91
Record
41%
349-512 (861)
Invested
$554.82
Value
$614.6
PnL
+$59.78
Record
46%
502-596 (1098)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$529.91
Value
$532.51
PnL
+$23.34
Record
53%
1101-972 (2073)
Invested
$488.97
Value
$524.07
PnL
+$40.07
Record
52%
3766-3522 (7288)
Invested
$344.13
Value
$421.52
PnL
+$77.39
Record
46%
624-735 (1359)
Invested
$389.81
Value
$386.18
PnL
-$2.74
Record
26%
407-1145 (1552)
Invested
$380.32
Value
$379.64
PnL
+$4.81
Record
41%
373-529 (902)
Invested
$319.71
Value
$347.29
PnL
+$27.58
Record
50%
1269-1265 (2534)
Both legs:
Invested
$275.19
Value
$284.96
PnL
+$9.77
Record
54%
3758-3156 (6914)
FairValueMachineInvested
$224.09
Value
$223.69
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
4130-3601 (7731)
Invested
$116.98
Value
$99.98
PnL
-$17
Record
46%
632-753 (1385)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$96.98
Value
$171.55
PnL
+$74.57
Record
40%
564-836 (1400)
Invested
$136.06
Value
$119.17
PnL
-$16.89
Record
50%
3857-3869 (7726)
Both legs:
Invested
$164.99
Value
$160
PnL
-$4.99
Record
59%
489-339 (828)
Invested
$155.11
Value
$145.77
PnL
-$9.34
Record
49%
3456-3566 (7022)
Invested
$151.32
Value
$106.34
PnL
-$44.98
Record
47%
601-679 (1280)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$112.87
Value
$110
PnL
-$2.87
Record
34%
383-759 (1142)
ohioism<$100Invested
$86.49
Value
$85.53
PnL
+$22.24
Record
48%
980-1048 (2028)
Invested
$45.31
Value
$52.3
PnL
+$6.98
Record
51%
474-448 (922)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$40
PnL
+$13.6
Record
38%
697-1139 (1836)
Invested
$32.8
Value
$40
PnL
+$7.2
Record
57%
4386-3257 (7643)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$23.34
PnL
+$3.22
Record
50%
392-393 (785)
Invested
$30
Value
—
PnL
-$30
Record
48%
969-1064 (2033)
Invested
$14.12
Value
$16.27
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
391-378 (769)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.8K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $693.91
CrouchPredictions
Down — $614.6
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $532.51
blue.birds
Down — $524.07
almach
Down — $421.52
ply-pm0
Down — $386.18
GoodFallen
Down — $379.64
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $284.96