Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 42%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 33 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 51.8¢ | $510.6 | $824.33 | +$313.73 | 59% 510-360 (870) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $681.66 | $621.17 | -$60.49 | 50% 1269-1265 (2534) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 56.4¢ | $606.75 | $594.33 | -$12.42 | 41% 349-512 (861) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.7¢ | $477.6 | $491.06 | +$13.45 | 52% 3766-3522 (7288) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $270.58 | $232.43 | -$38.14 | 26% 407-1145 (1552) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 37.7¢ | $232.87 | — | -$232.87 | 54% 3758-3156 (6914) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 36.4¢ | $337.8 | — | -$337.8 | 50% 3857-3869 (7726) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 38.7¢ | $208.03 | — | -$208.03 | 41% 373-529 (902) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 43¢ | $297 | — | -$297 | 46% 502-596 (1098) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 55.8¢ | $134.85 | $162.3 | +$27.45 | 59% 489-339 (828) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.8¢ | $175.32 | $141.72 | -$32.59 | 53% 1101-972 (2073) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $129.96 | $131 | +$1.04 | 48% 969-1064 (2033) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.6¢ | $170.87 | $125.08 | -$45.79 | 46% 624-735 (1359) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 35.9¢ | $379.77 | $88.49 | -$291.28 | 40% 564-836 (1400) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 95.9¢ | $84.89 | $88.49 | +$3.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.9¢ | $294.89 | — | -$294.89 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $38.7 | $90 | +$51.3 | 50% 392-393 (785) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $60.9 | — | -$60.9 | 51% 391-378 (769) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 53.8¢ | $32.2 | $54.94 | +$22.73 | 53% 4130-3601 (7731) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $69.19 | — | -$69.19 | 34% 383-759 (1142) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $59.94 | — | -$59.94 | 51% 474-448 (922) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $62.67 | — | -$47.03 | 48% 325-358 (683) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $72.16 | — | -$72.16 | 49% 3456-3566 (7022) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $40.15 | $32.77 | -$7.38 | 48% 980-1048 (2028) |
 Synthesizerchan<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $13.02 | $26.04 | +$13.02 | 54% 50-43 (93) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $20.15 | — | -$20.15 | 50% 3458-3397 (6855) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $11.67 | — | -$11.67 | 44% 955-1216 (2171) |
Invested
$510.6
Value
$824.33
PnL
+$313.73
Record
59%
510-360 (870)
Invested
$681.66
Value
$621.17
PnL
-$60.49
Record
50%
1269-1265 (2534)
Invested
$606.75
Value
$594.33
PnL
-$12.42
Record
41%
349-512 (861)
Invested
$477.6
Value
$491.06
PnL
+$13.45
Record
52%
3766-3522 (7288)
Invested
$270.58
Value
$232.43
PnL
-$38.14
Record
26%
407-1145 (1552)
Invested
$232.87
Value
—
PnL
-$232.87
Record
54%
3758-3156 (6914)
Invested
$337.8
Value
—
PnL
-$337.8
Record
50%
3857-3869 (7726)
Invested
$208.03
Value
—
PnL
-$208.03
Record
41%
373-529 (902)
Invested
$297
Value
—
PnL
-$297
Record
46%
502-596 (1098)
Invested
$134.85
Value
$162.3
PnL
+$27.45
Record
59%
489-339 (828)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$175.32
Value
$141.72
PnL
-$32.59
Record
53%
1101-972 (2073)
Invested
$129.96
Value
$131
PnL
+$1.04
Record
48%
969-1064 (2033)
Invested
$170.87
Value
$125.08
PnL
-$45.79
Record
46%
624-735 (1359)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$379.77
Value
$88.49
PnL
-$291.28
Record
40%
564-836 (1400)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.7
Value
$90
PnL
+$51.3
Record
50%
392-393 (785)
Invested
$60.9
Value
—
PnL
-$60.9
Record
51%
391-378 (769)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$32.2
Value
$54.94
PnL
+$22.73
Record
53%
4130-3601 (7731)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR<$100Invested
$69.19
Value
—
PnL
-$69.19
Record
34%
383-759 (1142)
Invested
$59.94
Value
—
PnL
-$59.94
Record
51%
474-448 (922)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$62.67
Value
—
PnL
-$47.03
Record
48%
325-358 (683)
Invested
$72.16
Value
—
PnL
-$72.16
Record
49%
3456-3566 (7022)
ohioism<$100Invested
$40.15
Value
$32.77
PnL
-$7.38
Record
48%
980-1048 (2028)
Synthesizerchan<$100Invested
$13.02
Value
$26.04
PnL
+$13.02
Record
54%
50-43 (93)
Invested
$20.15
Value
—
PnL
-$20.15
Record
50%
3458-3397 (6855)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$11.67
Value
—
PnL
-$11.67
Record
44%
955-1216 (2171)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $824.33
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $621.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $594.33
blue.birds
Down — $491.06
ply-pm0
Down — $232.43
stepahead
CTRUp — $0
bosona
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $162.3