Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
28
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$11.3K
$1.3K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 28 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 47% 593-674 (1267) |
AL almach | Downavg 69¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$492.43 | 46% 613-725 (1338) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.76 | 98% 1837-39 (1876) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 68.2¢ | $782.48 | $1.1K | +$365.53 | 45% 619-745 (1364) |
BO bosona | Downavg 64.8¢ | $487.44 | $751.65 | +$264.21 | 50% 3845-3861 (7706) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.8¢ | $444.13 | $549.73 | +$105.6 | 46% 495-586 (1081) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 60.8¢ | $375.53 | $404.71 | +$29.18 | 58% 500-357 (857) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $314.07 | $338.09 | +$24.02 | 26% 398-1141 (1539) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $338.33 | $675.03 | +$336.7 | 48% 950-1050 (2000) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 58¢ | $280.52 | $312.28 | +$31.76 | 54% 3749-3148 (6897) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 35.3¢ | $361.73 | — | -$361.73 | 40% 341-509 (850) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 68.4¢ | $299.43 | $278.13 | +$4.62 | 52% 3739-3509 (7248) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 65.2¢ | $220.69 | $225.47 | +$19.58 | 49% 706-726 (1432) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 13.1¢ | $137.98 | $100 | -$37.98 | 40% 554-833 (1387) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $44 | $100 | +$56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.1¢ | $93.98 | — | -$93.98 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.3¢ | $172.26 | $154.74 | -$17.52 | 41% 364-527 (891) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 68.8¢ | $80.57 | $106.25 | +$25.68 | 34% 379-751 (1130) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.4¢ | $142.42 | $95.04 | +$9.26 | 53% 1080-957 (2037) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $83.59 | $73.22 | -$10.36 | 59% 480-336 (816) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $54.5 | $53.24 | +$17.68 | 16% 62-334 (396) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $29.5 | $42.75 | +$14.98 | 52% 470-441 (911) |
 Bossgirl<$100 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $50.58 | $46 | +$6.12 | 49% 32-33 (65) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $36.26 | — | -$30.52 | 49% 3432-3549 (6981) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $20.28 | $25 | +$4.72 | 50% 3450-3393 (6843) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $16.72 | — | -$16.72 | 47% 315-355 (670) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $15.2 | $30 | +$14.8 | 53% 4123-3599 (7722) |
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
47%
593-674 (1267)
Invested
$1,093.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$492.43
Record
46%
613-725 (1338)
Invested
$1,263.24
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.76
Record
98%
1837-39 (1876)
Invested
$782.48
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$365.53
Record
45%
619-745 (1364)
Invested
$487.44
Value
$751.65
PnL
+$264.21
Record
50%
3845-3861 (7706)
Invested
$444.13
Value
$549.73
PnL
+$105.6
Record
46%
495-586 (1081)
Invested
$375.53
Value
$404.71
PnL
+$29.18
Record
58%
500-357 (857)
Invested
$314.07
Value
$338.09
PnL
+$24.02
Record
26%
398-1141 (1539)
Invested
$338.33
Value
$675.03
PnL
+$336.7
Record
48%
950-1050 (2000)
Invested
$280.52
Value
$312.28
PnL
+$31.76
Record
54%
3749-3148 (6897)
Invested
$361.73
Value
—
PnL
-$361.73
Record
40%
341-509 (850)
Invested
$299.43
Value
$278.13
PnL
+$4.62
Record
52%
3739-3509 (7248)
Invested
$220.69
Value
$225.47
PnL
+$19.58
Record
49%
706-726 (1432)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$137.98
Value
$100
PnL
-$37.98
Record
40%
554-833 (1387)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.26
Value
$154.74
PnL
-$17.52
Record
41%
364-527 (891)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$80.57
Value
$106.25
PnL
+$25.68
Record
34%
379-751 (1130)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$142.42
Value
$95.04
PnL
+$9.26
Record
53%
1080-957 (2037)
Invested
$83.59
Value
$73.22
PnL
-$10.36
Record
59%
480-336 (816)
Invested
$54.5
Value
$53.24
PnL
+$17.68
Record
16%
62-334 (396)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$42.75
PnL
+$14.98
Record
52%
470-441 (911)
Bossgirl<$100Invested
$50.58
Value
$46
PnL
+$6.12
Record
49%
32-33 (65)
Invested
$36.26
Value
—
PnL
-$30.52
Record
49%
3432-3549 (6981)
Invested
$20.28
Value
$25
PnL
+$4.72
Record
50%
3450-3393 (6843)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$16.72
Value
—
PnL
-$16.72
Record
47%
315-355 (670)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$15.2
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.8
Record
53%
4123-3599 (7722)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
almach
Down — $1.6K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
mo-money
Down — $1.1K
bosona
Down — $751.65
CrouchPredictions
Down — $549.73
Bonereaper
Down — $404.71
ply-pm0
Down — $338.09
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $675.03
stepahead
Down — $312.28