Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 77%
4 arb excluded
$22.3K
$3.7K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 35 top traders (77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mo-money | Downavg 63.3¢ | $2.1K | $3.0K | +$899.05 | 45% 619-745 (1364) |
AL almach | Downavg 63.3¢ | $1.7K | $2.4K | +$663.39 | 46% 613-725 (1338) |
BO bosona | Downavg 63.2¢ | $1.9K | $3.0K | +$1.1K | 50% 3845-3861 (7706) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$169.94 | 26% 398-1141 (1539) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 49.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$388.56 | 46% 495-586 (1081) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 85.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$111.67 | 58% 500-357 (857) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 21.4¢ | $712.51 | $1.8K | +$1.0K | 48% 950-1050 (2000) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.4¢ | $337.58 | — | -$337.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.4¢ | $374.93 | $1.8K | +$1.4K | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 47.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$140.15 | 54% 3749-3148 (6897) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 47.9¢ | $873.09 | $1.1K | +$256.41 | 53% 1080-957 (2037) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 41.9¢ | $567.33 | $889.71 | +$322.39 | 40% 554-833 (1387) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73.6¢ | $738.32 | $611.09 | -$127.23 | 52% 3739-3509 (7248) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 28.3¢ | $254.38 | — | -$254.38 | 37% 435-728 (1163) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 47.7¢ | $235.95 | $350 | +$114.05 | 34% 379-751 (1130) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $275.8 | $328.57 | +$91.22 | 48% 575-634 (1209) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $326.58 | $329.88 | +$3.3 | 98% 1837-39 (1876) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 66.7¢ | $220.85 | $247.17 | +$26.32 | 51% 388-374 (762) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 39.4¢ | $276.03 | — | -$276.03 | 40% 341-509 (850) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Upavg 31.6¢ | $77.08 | — | -$77.08 | 52% 178-166 (344) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 97¢ | $145.5 | $150 | +$4.5 | 74% 723-254 (977) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 65¢ | $122.52 | $166.33 | +$43.81 | 50% 3450-3393 (6843) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 71.8¢ | $81.34 | $113.24 | +$31.9 | 52% 470-441 (911) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 75.6¢ | $112.57 | $109.83 | -$2.74 | 49% 3432-3549 (6981) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 33.3¢ | $131.45 | — | -$119.9 | 41% 364-527 (891) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 39.1¢ | $137 | $350 | +$213 | 49% 706-726 (1432) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $60.8 | $84.52 | +$23.72 | 57% 4377-3250 (7627) |
Invested
$2,100.26
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$899.05
Record
45%
619-745 (1364)
Invested
$1,731.16
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$663.39
Record
46%
613-725 (1338)
Invested
$1,894.07
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
50%
3845-3861 (7706)
Invested
$1,676.22
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$169.94
Record
26%
398-1141 (1539)
Invested
$1,449.66
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$388.56
Record
46%
495-586 (1081)
Invested
$1,700.91
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$111.67
Record
58%
500-357 (857)
Invested
$712.51
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
48%
950-1050 (2000)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,079.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$140.15
Record
54%
3749-3148 (6897)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$873.09
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$256.41
Record
53%
1080-957 (2037)
machinelearnedInvested
$567.33
Value
$889.71
PnL
+$322.39
Record
40%
554-833 (1387)
Invested
$738.32
Value
$611.09
PnL
-$127.23
Record
52%
3739-3509 (7248)
Invested
$254.38
Value
—
PnL
-$254.38
Record
37%
435-728 (1163)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$235.95
Value
$350
PnL
+$114.05
Record
34%
379-751 (1130)
Invested
$275.8
Value
$328.57
PnL
+$91.22
Record
48%
575-634 (1209)
Invested
$326.58
Value
$329.88
PnL
+$3.3
Record
98%
1837-39 (1876)
Invested
$220.85
Value
$247.17
PnL
+$26.32
Record
51%
388-374 (762)
Invested
$276.03
Value
—
PnL
-$276.03
Record
40%
341-509 (850)
Invested
$77.08
Value
—
PnL
-$77.08
Record
52%
178-166 (344)
BoneOhioInvested
$145.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$4.5
Record
74%
723-254 (977)
Invested
$122.52
Value
$166.33
PnL
+$43.81
Record
50%
3450-3393 (6843)
Invested
$81.34
Value
$113.24
PnL
+$31.9
Record
52%
470-441 (911)
Invested
$112.57
Value
$109.83
PnL
-$2.74
Record
49%
3432-3549 (6981)
Invested
$131.45
Value
—
PnL
-$119.9
Record
41%
364-527 (891)
Invested
$137
Value
$350
PnL
+$213
Record
49%
706-726 (1432)
Invested
$60.8
Value
$84.52
PnL
+$23.72
Record
57%
4377-3250 (7627)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
mo-money
Down — $3.0K
almach
Down — $2.4K
bosona
Down — $3.0K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.8K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.8K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.8K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
Down — $1.2K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $1.1K
machinelearned
Down — $889.71