Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$8.5K
$1.8K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 26 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 87.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$200.62 | 58% 500-357 (857) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.38 | 98% 1837-39 (1876) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 45¢ | $394.57 | $877.17 | +$482.6 | 48% 950-1050 (2000) |
AL almach | Downavg 55.3¢ | $440.44 | $796.01 | +$355.57 | 46% 613-725 (1338) |
BO bosona | Downavg 87.3¢ | $569.42 | $652.61 | +$83.19 | 50% 3845-3861 (7706) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.8¢ | $336.67 | $545.35 | +$208.83 | 46% 495-586 (1081) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 75.8¢ | $386.95 | $510.78 | +$123.83 | 45% 619-745 (1364) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 43.1¢ | $139.78 | $285.08 | +$145.3 | 40% 554-833 (1387) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 58.5¢ | $195.47 | $209.37 | +$13.9 | 54% 3749-3148 (6897) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.6¢ | $155.37 | $194.07 | +$38.7 | 52% 3739-3509 (7248) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $126.9 | $135.23 | +$8.33 | 26% 398-1141 (1539) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 77.3¢ | $116 | $150 | +$34 | 49% 706-726 (1432) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 92.9¢ | $115.45 | $79.86 | -$34.99 | 53% 1080-957 (2037) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 92.9¢ | $74.2 | $79.86 | +$5.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.6¢ | $36.94 | — | -$40.65 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $85.5 | $85 | -$0.5 | 59% 480-336 (816) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $69.6 | $80.48 | +$10.88 | 52% 470-441 (911) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $48.84 | $76.32 | +$27.48 | 47% 315-355 (670) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $40.6 | $68.08 | +$27.49 | 51% 388-374 (762) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $38.18 | $70.24 | +$32.06 | 50% 3450-3393 (6843) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $35.3 | $40 | +$4.7 | 44% 945-1197 (2142) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $30.48 | $35 | +$4.52 | 48% 962-1040 (2002) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.9¢ | $11.61 | — | -$11.61 | 40% 643-968 (1611) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $9.74 | $12.19 | +$2.45 | 38% 687-1125 (1812) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.8¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 35% 531-973 (1504) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $18.3 | — | -$18.3 | 49% 3432-3549 (6981) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $18.6 | — | -$18.6 | 50% 388-390 (778) |
Invested
$2,195.18
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$200.62
Record
58%
500-357 (857)
Invested
$1,222.97
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.38
Record
98%
1837-39 (1876)
Invested
$394.57
Value
$877.17
PnL
+$482.6
Record
48%
950-1050 (2000)
Invested
$440.44
Value
$796.01
PnL
+$355.57
Record
46%
613-725 (1338)
Invested
$569.42
Value
$652.61
PnL
+$83.19
Record
50%
3845-3861 (7706)
Invested
$336.67
Value
$545.35
PnL
+$208.83
Record
46%
495-586 (1081)
Invested
$386.95
Value
$510.78
PnL
+$123.83
Record
45%
619-745 (1364)
machinelearnedInvested
$139.78
Value
$285.08
PnL
+$145.3
Record
40%
554-833 (1387)
Invested
$195.47
Value
$209.37
PnL
+$13.9
Record
54%
3749-3148 (6897)
Invested
$155.37
Value
$194.07
PnL
+$38.7
Record
52%
3739-3509 (7248)
Invested
$126.9
Value
$135.23
PnL
+$8.33
Record
26%
398-1141 (1539)
Invested
$116
Value
$150
PnL
+$34
Record
49%
706-726 (1432)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$115.45
Value
$79.86
PnL
-$34.99
Record
53%
1080-957 (2037)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.5
Value
$85
PnL
-$0.5
Record
59%
480-336 (816)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$80.48
PnL
+$10.88
Record
52%
470-441 (911)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$48.84
Value
$76.32
PnL
+$27.48
Record
47%
315-355 (670)
Invested
$40.6
Value
$68.08
PnL
+$27.49
Record
51%
388-374 (762)
Invested
$38.18
Value
$70.24
PnL
+$32.06
Record
50%
3450-3393 (6843)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$35.3
Value
$40
PnL
+$4.7
Record
44%
945-1197 (2142)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.48
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.52
Record
48%
962-1040 (2002)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$11.61
Value
—
PnL
-$11.61
Record
40%
643-968 (1611)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$12.19
PnL
+$2.45
Record
38%
687-1125 (1812)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
35%
531-973 (1504)
Invested
$18.3
Value
—
PnL
-$18.3
Record
49%
3432-3549 (6981)
Invested
$18.6
Value
—
PnL
-$18.6
Record
50%
388-390 (778)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $2.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $877.17
almach
Down — $796.01
bosona
Down — $652.61
CrouchPredictions
Down — $545.35
mo-money
Down — $510.78
machinelearned
Down — $285.08
stepahead
Down — $209.37
blue.birds
Down — $194.07