Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 66%
1 arb excluded
$9.7K
$425.06
Smart Money Signal
19 of 29 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 46% 582-670 (1252) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 91.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.3K | +$139.81 | 58% 492-353 (845) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83.5¢ | $826.62 | $990.02 | +$163.4 | 50% 3834-3852 (7686) |
AL almach | Downavg 82.5¢ | $471.68 | $571.89 | +$100.21 | 46% 606-715 (1321) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $399.96 | $404 | +$4.04 | 98% 1814-38 (1852) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 84.8¢ | $305.11 | $359.89 | +$54.78 | 49% 683-704 (1387) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 89.4¢ | $247.33 | $254.56 | +$7.23 | 26% 393-1134 (1527) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.2¢ | $227.85 | $255.09 | +$27.24 | 54% 3739-3142 (6881) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83.5¢ | $239.12 | $286.43 | +$47.31 | 40% 548-820 (1368) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 88.9¢ | $205.35 | $199.99 | -$5.36 | 33% 371-747 (1118) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $195.35 | $193.55 | -$1.8 | 50% 383-386 (769) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86.9¢ | $182.61 | $210.18 | +$27.57 | 45% 611-735 (1346) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 88.8¢ | $223.08 | $184.12 | -$5.71 | 52% 3722-3489 (7211) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 98.5¢ | $179.15 | $175 | -$4.15 | 40% 634-948 (1582) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 43.4¢ | $107.2 | — | -$107.2 | 48% 937-1035 (1972) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $96.66 | $79.55 | -$17.11 | 46% 485-580 (1065) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.3¢ | $64.69 | $79.55 | +$14.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 7.3¢ | $31.98 | — | -$31.98 | |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $61.9 | $65.73 | +$5.43 | 41% 358-521 (879) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 88.3¢ | $72.63 | $60 | -$12.63 | 53% 1061-944 (2005) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $30.75 | $35 | +$4.25 | 48% 948-1028 (1976) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $24.75 | $25 | +$0.25 | 44% 932-1181 (2113) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $22 | $20 | -$2 | 59% 475-329 (804) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.8¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 53% 4117-3595 (7712) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.6¢ | $12.47 | — | -$12.47 | 50% 3445-3387 (6832) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.7¢ | $64.85 | — | -$10.85 | 40% 337-501 (838) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.9¢ | $2.15 | — | -$2.15 | 47% 563-628 (1191) |
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
46%
582-670 (1252)
Invested
$2,147.33
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$139.81
Record
58%
492-353 (845)
Invested
$826.62
Value
$990.02
PnL
+$163.4
Record
50%
3834-3852 (7686)
Invested
$471.68
Value
$571.89
PnL
+$100.21
Record
46%
606-715 (1321)
Invested
$399.96
Value
$404
PnL
+$4.04
Record
98%
1814-38 (1852)
Invested
$305.11
Value
$359.89
PnL
+$54.78
Record
49%
683-704 (1387)
Invested
$247.33
Value
$254.56
PnL
+$7.23
Record
26%
393-1134 (1527)
Invested
$227.85
Value
$255.09
PnL
+$27.24
Record
54%
3739-3142 (6881)
machinelearnedInvested
$239.12
Value
$286.43
PnL
+$47.31
Record
40%
548-820 (1368)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$205.35
Value
$199.99
PnL
-$5.36
Record
33%
371-747 (1118)
Invested
$195.35
Value
$193.55
PnL
-$1.8
Record
50%
383-386 (769)
Invested
$182.61
Value
$210.18
PnL
+$27.57
Record
45%
611-735 (1346)
Invested
$223.08
Value
$184.12
PnL
-$5.71
Record
52%
3722-3489 (7211)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$179.15
Value
$175
PnL
-$4.15
Record
40%
634-948 (1582)
Invested
$107.2
Value
—
PnL
-$107.2
Record
48%
937-1035 (1972)
Invested
$96.66
Value
$79.55
PnL
-$17.11
Record
46%
485-580 (1065)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.9
Value
$65.73
PnL
+$5.43
Record
41%
358-521 (879)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$72.63
Value
$60
PnL
-$12.63
Record
53%
1061-944 (2005)
ohioism<$100Invested
$30.75
Value
$35
PnL
+$4.25
Record
48%
948-1028 (1976)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$24.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
44%
932-1181 (2113)
Invested
$22
Value
$20
PnL
-$2
Record
59%
475-329 (804)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
53%
4117-3595 (7712)
Invested
$12.47
Value
—
PnL
-$12.47
Record
50%
3445-3387 (6832)
Invested
$64.85
Value
—
PnL
-$10.85
Record
40%
337-501 (838)
Invested
$2.15
Value
—
PnL
-$2.15
Record
47%
563-628 (1191)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.3K
bosona
Down — $990.02
almach
Down — $571.89
hoodquant
Down — $404
uninformedfloww
Down — $359.89
ply-pm0
Down — $254.56
stepahead
Down — $255.09
machinelearned
Down — $286.43
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Down — $199.99