Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.5K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 38 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down34 traders

Total Value$29.0K

Total Shares29,033

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$138.07

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Downavg 55.7¢	$4.3K	$7.7K	+$3.4K	26% 47-134 (181)
Atomforge	Downavg 52¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$442.03	21% 199-744 (943)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 89.4¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$255.4	48% 937-1035 (1972)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 66.2¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$103.58	46% 485-580 (1065)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.2¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$704.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$808.46	—	-$808.46
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 86.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$30.08	58% 492-353 (845)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 65.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$32.78	26% 393-1134 (1527)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 47.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$162.29	40% 337-501 (838)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 71.1¢	$879.17	$1.2K	+$357.63	49% 683-704 (1387)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$49.33	54% 3739-3142 (6881)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$714.12	$1.1K	+$405.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$455.24	—	-$455.24
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 66.3¢	$936.32	$913.81	+$16.69	53% 1061-944 (2005)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 48.1¢	$767.93	$900.43	+$132.49	52% 3722-3489 (7211)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 89.3¢	$992.78	$840	-$151.78	56% 45-35 (80)
AL almach	Downavg 63.3¢	$651.45	$750.12	+$98.67	46% 606-715 (1321)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48.1¢	$559.92	$737.46	+$180.48	41% 358-521 (879)
MO mo-money	Downavg 65.8¢	$625.93	$720.87	+$94.94	45% 611-735 (1346)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 56.7¢	$594.26	$688.7	+$94.45	33% 371-747 (1118)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.6¢	$652.82	$669	+$16.18	98% 1814-38 (1852)
BO bosona	Downavg 61¢	$461.98	$539.13	+$77.15	50% 3834-3852 (7686)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 37.5¢	$246.71	$397.58	+$157.39	53% 4117-3595 (7712)
machinelearned	Downavg 51.3¢	$213.02	$403.2	+$190.18	40% 548-820 (1368)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 63.7¢	$274.43	$250.74	+$15.05	66% 1742-899 (2641)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 97¢	$256.38	$214.62	-$41.76	51% 460-439 (899)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 68.1¢	$224.05	$264.52	+$40.47	50% 383-386 (769)
OhioAI	Downavg 54.8¢	$152.05	$200.11	+$48.06	47% 308-350 (658)
PB PBot-5	Downavg 48.7¢	$85.25	$175	+$89.75	47% 563-628 (1191)

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$4,278.09

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

26%

47-134 (181)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$3,976.24

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$442.03

Record

21%

199-744 (943)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,163.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$255.4

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,186.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$103.58

Record

46%

485-580 (1065)

Both legs:

Down$1,378.2666.2¢+$704.87

Up$808.4647.2¢-$808.46

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,866.79

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$30.08

Record

58%

492-353 (845)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,389.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$32.78

Record

26%

393-1134 (1527)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,130.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$162.29

Record

40%

337-501 (838)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$879.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$357.63

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,169.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$49.33

Record

54%

3739-3142 (6881)

Both legs:

Down$714.1263.8¢+$405.92

Up$455.2447.8¢-$455.24

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$936.32

Value

$913.81

PnL

+$16.69

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$767.93

Value

$900.43

PnL

+$132.49

Record

52%

3722-3489 (7211)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$992.78

Value

$840

PnL

-$151.78

Record

56%

45-35 (80)

almach

Down

Invested

$651.45

Value

$750.12

PnL

+$98.67

Record

46%

606-715 (1321)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$559.92

Value

$737.46

PnL

+$180.48

Record

41%

358-521 (879)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$625.93

Value

$720.87

PnL

+$94.94

Record

45%

611-735 (1346)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$594.26

Value

$688.7

PnL

+$94.45

Record

33%

371-747 (1118)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$652.82

Value

$669

PnL

+$16.18

Record

98%

1814-38 (1852)

bosona

Down

Invested

$461.98

Value

$539.13

PnL

+$77.15

Record

50%

3834-3852 (7686)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$246.71

Value

$397.58

PnL

+$157.39

Record

53%

4117-3595 (7712)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$213.02

Value

$403.2

PnL

+$190.18

Record

40%

548-820 (1368)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$274.43

Value

$250.74

PnL

+$15.05

Record

66%

1742-899 (2641)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$256.38

Value

$214.62

PnL

-$41.76

Record

51%

460-439 (899)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$224.05

Value

$264.52

PnL

+$40.47

Record

50%

383-386 (769)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$152.05

Value

$200.11

PnL

+$48.06

Record

47%

308-350 (658)

PBot-5

Down

Invested

$85.25

Value

$175

PnL

+$89.75

Record

47%

563-628 (1191)

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 38 top traders (89%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xefd1e242...903629

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794434100

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Down — $7.7K

+$3.4K

Atomforge

Down — $3.6K

+$442.03

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.4K

+$255.4

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$103.58

Bonereaper

Down — $1.9K

+$30.08

ply-pm0

Down — $1.4K

+$32.78

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.3K

+$162.29

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.2K

+$357.63

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$49.33

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $913.81

+$16.69

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