Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
30
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$7.8K
$1.3K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 30 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 89.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$80.17 | 58% 492-353 (845) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $995.21 | $1.2K | +$249.45 | 48% 937-1035 (1972) |
AL almach | Downavg 58.2¢ | $549.69 | $943.76 | +$394.07 | 46% 606-715 (1321) |
BO bosona | Downavg 59.1¢ | $376.01 | $636.7 | +$260.69 | 50% 3834-3852 (7686) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 57.1¢ | $462.52 | $566.52 | +$120.4 | 40% 337-501 (838) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 53.2¢ | $472.92 | $522.96 | +$50.04 | 46% 485-580 (1065) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 62¢ | $321.76 | $518.55 | +$196.79 | 45% 611-735 (1346) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 52¢ | $162.48 | $300 | +$137.52 | 40% 548-820 (1368) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $259.64 | $268.64 | +$9 | 26% 393-1134 (1527) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 45.1¢ | $250.58 | — | -$250.58 | 54% 3739-3142 (6881) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 49.3¢ | $176.3 | $190.51 | +$14.21 | 53% 1061-944 (2005) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58.4¢ | $110.78 | $189.7 | +$78.92 | 52% 3722-3489 (7211) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 76.4¢ | $173.86 | $187.5 | +$13.64 | 59% 475-329 (804) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 70.9¢ | $214.52 | $154.99 | -$59.53 | 33% 371-747 (1118) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $162.23 | $79.13 | -$83.1 | 41% 358-521 (879) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $40.21 | $79.13 | +$38.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $122.02 | — | -$122.02 | |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $44.14 | $75.85 | +$31.71 | 66% 1742-899 (2641) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $60.17 | $89.41 | +$29.24 | 50% 3445-3387 (6832) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $77.61 | $53.85 | -$23.76 | 53% 4117-3595 (7712) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $40.94 | $66.28 | +$25.34 | 47% 308-350 (658) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $41.94 | — | -$41.94 | 50% 383-386 (769) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $19.5 | $30 | +$10.5 | 48% 948-1028 (1976) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.6¢ | $37.56 | — | -$37.56 | 44% 932-1181 (2113) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $8.75 | $25 | +$16.25 | 47% 563-628 (1191) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $19.5 | $50 | +$30.5 | 49% 3410-3533 (6943) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $15 | — | -$15 | 51% 460-439 (899) |
Invested
$1,495.73
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$80.17
Record
58%
492-353 (845)
Invested
$995.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$249.45
Record
48%
937-1035 (1972)
Invested
$549.69
Value
$943.76
PnL
+$394.07
Record
46%
606-715 (1321)
Invested
$376.01
Value
$636.7
PnL
+$260.69
Record
50%
3834-3852 (7686)
Invested
$462.52
Value
$566.52
PnL
+$120.4
Record
40%
337-501 (838)
Invested
$472.92
Value
$522.96
PnL
+$50.04
Record
46%
485-580 (1065)
Invested
$321.76
Value
$518.55
PnL
+$196.79
Record
45%
611-735 (1346)
machinelearnedInvested
$162.48
Value
$300
PnL
+$137.52
Record
40%
548-820 (1368)
Invested
$259.64
Value
$268.64
PnL
+$9
Record
26%
393-1134 (1527)
Invested
$250.58
Value
—
PnL
-$250.58
Record
54%
3739-3142 (6881)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$176.3
Value
$190.51
PnL
+$14.21
Record
53%
1061-944 (2005)
Invested
$110.78
Value
$189.7
PnL
+$78.92
Record
52%
3722-3489 (7211)
Invested
$173.86
Value
$187.5
PnL
+$13.64
Record
59%
475-329 (804)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$214.52
Value
$154.99
PnL
-$59.53
Record
33%
371-747 (1118)
Invested
$162.23
Value
$79.13
PnL
-$83.1
Record
41%
358-521 (879)
Both legs:
Invested
$44.14
Value
$75.85
PnL
+$31.71
Record
66%
1742-899 (2641)
Invested
$60.17
Value
$89.41
PnL
+$29.24
Record
50%
3445-3387 (6832)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$77.61
Value
$53.85
PnL
-$23.76
Record
53%
4117-3595 (7712)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$40.94
Value
$66.28
PnL
+$25.34
Record
47%
308-350 (658)
Invested
$41.94
Value
—
PnL
-$41.94
Record
50%
383-386 (769)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$10.5
Record
48%
948-1028 (1976)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$37.56
Value
—
PnL
-$37.56
Record
44%
932-1181 (2113)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$16.25
Record
47%
563-628 (1191)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$30.5
Record
49%
3410-3533 (6943)
Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$15
Record
51%
460-439 (899)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $1.6K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.2K
almach
Down — $943.76
bosona
Down — $636.7
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $566.52
CrouchPredictions
Down — $522.96
mo-money
Down — $518.55
machinelearned
Down — $300
ply-pm0
Down — $268.64
stepahead
CTRUp — $0