Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

-$197.19

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,215

Combined PnL+$198

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,184

Combined PnL-$395.19

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9	46% 582-670 (1252)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 96.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$62.9	58% 492-353 (845)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 47.2¢	$305.15	—	-$305.15	48% 937-1035 (1972)
machinelearned	Downavg 87.8¢	$541.13	$616.44	+$75.3	40% 548-820 (1368)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR<$100	Upavg 10.2¢	$55.97	—	-$55.97	46% 485-580 (1065)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 68.5¢	$168.82	$190.67	+$36.24	52% 3722-3489 (7211)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$142.91	$109.67	-$33.24	33% 371-747 (1118)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24¢	$54.43	—	-$54.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.7¢	$88.48	$109.67	+$21.19
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 87¢	$138.02	$155.08	+$17.06	45% 611-735 (1346)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2¢	$3.1	—	-$3.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 87¢	$134.92	$155.08	+$20.16
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 99¢	$136.54	$131	-$5.54	40% 634-948 (1582)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$122.54	$146.4	+$23.86	40% 337-501 (838)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.7¢	$104.94	$146.4	+$41.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$17.6	—	-$17.6
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$67.28	$64	-$3.28	54% 3739-3142 (6881)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$32.4	—	-$32.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$34.88	$64	+$29.12
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$87.87	$90.21	+$2.34	26% 393-1134 (1527)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 98.6¢	$90.9	$80	-$10.9	53% 1061-944 (2005)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$73.86	$99.3	+$25.44	41% 358-521 (879)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$68.16	$99.3	+$31.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.3¢	$5.7	—	-$5.7
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 90.5¢	$96.16	$106.23	+$10.07	59% 475-329 (804)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 5.9¢	$5.2	—	-$5.2	35% 522-960 (1482)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$24.7	—	-$24.7	48% 948-1028 (1976)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 65¢	$16.25	$25	+$8.75	44% 932-1181 (2113)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$23.36	$29.08	+$5.72	66% 1742-899 (2641)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$3.16	—	-$3.16	50% 3445-3387 (6832)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 63¢	$6.3	$10	+$3.7	47% 308-350 (658)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 95¢	$7.68	$8.08	+$0.4	61% 1209-787 (1996)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 0.1¢	$1	—	-$1	61% 1965-1241 (3206)