Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
31
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$9.2K
$278.6
Smart Money Signal
25 of 31 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$23.21 | 74% 712-248 (960) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$143 | 48% 937-1035 (1972) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 91.9¢ | $981.8 | $973.15 | -$8.65 | 46% 485-580 (1065) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 97¢ | $485 | $500 | +$15 | 45% 611-735 (1346) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 67.4¢ | $375.71 | $390.09 | +$14.38 | 26% 393-1134 (1527) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 69.2¢ | $292.08 | $373.03 | +$80.95 | 53% 1061-944 (2005) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 48.9¢ | $258.53 | $372.72 | +$114.18 | 40% 337-501 (838) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.9¢ | $271.17 | $272.97 | +$1.79 | 54% 3739-3142 (6881) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 75.9¢ | $247.74 | $272.12 | +$24.38 | 59% 475-329 (804) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 43.9¢ | $364.52 | — | -$364.52 | 58% 492-353 (845) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 4.1¢ | $174.88 | $162.62 | -$12.26 | 40% 548-820 (1368) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $83.31 | $162.62 | +$79.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 4.1¢ | $91.57 | — | -$91.57 | |
AL almach | Downavg 97¢ | $194.87 | $200.9 | +$6.03 | 46% 606-715 (1321) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $195.02 | $199 | +$3.98 | 98% 1814-38 (1852) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 53.3¢ | $135.37 | $170.37 | +$34.99 | 41% 358-521 (879) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 49¢ | $101.68 | $167.4 | +$65.72 | 33% 371-747 (1118) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 43.8¢ | $101.52 | $159.21 | +$72.24 | 52% 3722-3489 (7211) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $83.7 | $82.03 | -$1.67 | 66% 1742-899 (2641) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $58.77 | $70.18 | +$11.41 | 61% 1965-1241 (3206) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $66.3 | $66.3 | -$0 | 35% 522-960 (1482) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $19.5 | $50 | +$30.5 | 49% 3410-3533 (6943) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $36.42 | $49 | +$12.58 | 47% 308-350 (658) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $31.6 | $40 | +$8.4 | 53% 4117-3595 (7712) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $17.19 | $39.98 | +$22.79 | 44% 932-1181 (2113) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $47.8 | $35 | +$1.7 | 51% 460-439 (899) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $14.5 | $25 | +$10.5 | 50% 3445-3387 (6832) |
BoneOhioInvested
$2,298.08
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$23.21
Record
74%
712-248 (960)
Invested
$2,084.78
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$143
Record
48%
937-1035 (1972)
Invested
$981.8
Value
$973.15
PnL
-$8.65
Record
46%
485-580 (1065)
Invested
$485
Value
$500
PnL
+$15
Record
45%
611-735 (1346)
Invested
$375.71
Value
$390.09
PnL
+$14.38
Record
26%
393-1134 (1527)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$292.08
Value
$373.03
PnL
+$80.95
Record
53%
1061-944 (2005)
Invested
$258.53
Value
$372.72
PnL
+$114.18
Record
40%
337-501 (838)
Invested
$271.17
Value
$272.97
PnL
+$1.79
Record
54%
3739-3142 (6881)
Invested
$247.74
Value
$272.12
PnL
+$24.38
Record
59%
475-329 (804)
Invested
$364.52
Value
—
PnL
-$364.52
Record
58%
492-353 (845)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$174.88
Value
$162.62
PnL
-$12.26
Record
40%
548-820 (1368)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.87
Value
$200.9
PnL
+$6.03
Record
46%
606-715 (1321)
Invested
$195.02
Value
$199
PnL
+$3.98
Record
98%
1814-38 (1852)
Invested
$135.37
Value
$170.37
PnL
+$34.99
Record
41%
358-521 (879)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$101.68
Value
$167.4
PnL
+$65.72
Record
33%
371-747 (1118)
Invested
$101.52
Value
$159.21
PnL
+$72.24
Record
52%
3722-3489 (7211)
Invested
$83.7
Value
$82.03
PnL
-$1.67
Record
66%
1742-899 (2641)
Invested
$58.77
Value
$70.18
PnL
+$11.41
Record
61%
1965-1241 (3206)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$66.3
Value
$66.3
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
522-960 (1482)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$30.5
Record
49%
3410-3533 (6943)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$36.42
Value
$49
PnL
+$12.58
Record
47%
308-350 (658)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$31.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$8.4
Record
53%
4117-3595 (7712)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$17.19
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$22.79
Record
44%
932-1181 (2113)
Invested
$47.8
Value
$35
PnL
+$1.7
Record
51%
460-439 (899)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$10.5
Record
50%
3445-3387 (6832)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $2.3K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $973.15
mo-money
Down — $500
ply-pm0
Down — $390.09
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $373.03
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $372.72
stepahead
Down — $272.97
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $272.12
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0