Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

25 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Up (76%) · Up at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 33 top traders (76%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares12,553

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down8 traders

Total Value$41.6

Total Shares14,819

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUp 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Up 76% · 33

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 94.1¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$207.49	59% 481-338 (819)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$27.05	47% 570-651 (1221)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$23.45	98% 1763-37 (1800)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.1¢	$537.93	$694.78	+$156.84	45% 469-566 (1035)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 68.9¢	$398.7	$546.52	+$147.82	50% 375-372 (747)
BO bosona	Upavg 67¢	$350	$500	+$150	50% 3815-3834 (7649)
AL almach	Upavg 67¢	$346.63	$500	+$153.37	46% 586-697 (1283)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 66.2¢	$377.55	$449.26	+$71.7	25% 381-1123 (1504)
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.1¢	$278.8	$314.3	+$35.51	54% 3724-3126 (6850)
MO mo-money	Upavg 67¢	$217.73	$309.44	+$91.71	45% 592-714 (1306)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 75¢	$225	$297	+$72	36% 400-707 (1107)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 72.6¢	$147.63	$175.95	+$28.33	60% 466-315 (781)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 81¢	$188.97	$147.05	-$40.02	40% 330-485 (815)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.8¢	$101.92	$123.54	+$21.62	41% 349-507 (856)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 69¢	$104.98	$119.98	+$15.01	52% 3683-3453 (7136)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 67¢	$80.4	$118.8	+$38.4	53% 4104-3585 (7689)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 57.5¢	$59.93	$100.96	+$41.03	51% 446-431 (877)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100	Upavg 74¢	$87.38	$99.46	+$12.07	33% 358-737 (1095)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$34.75	$54.45	+$19.7	47% 548-611 (1159)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 76.4¢	$28.65	$37.47	+$8.82	66% 1693-878 (2571)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 17.7¢	$408.09	$23.08	-$385.01	47% 906-1010 (1916)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 68.5¢	$8.28	$11.97	+$3.69	40% 614-907 (1521)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 67.5¢	$8.03	$11.78	+$3.75	35% 503-921 (1424)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 69¢	$6.9	$9.9	+$3	47% 296-340 (636)
PA PapeasyCTR<$100	Downavg 32¢	$14.28	$9.81	-$4.47	50% 3433-3376 (6809)

Bonereaper

Invested

$3,313.87

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$207.49

Record

59%

481-338 (819)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,004.98

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$27.05

Record

47%

570-651 (1221)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,352.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$23.45

Record

98%

1763-37 (1800)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$537.93

Value

$694.78

PnL

+$156.84

Record

45%

469-566 (1035)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$398.7

Value

$546.52

PnL

+$147.82

Record

50%

375-372 (747)

bosona

Invested

$350

Value

$500

PnL

+$150

Record

50%

3815-3834 (7649)

almach

Invested

$346.63

Value

$500

PnL

+$153.37

Record

46%

586-697 (1283)

ply-pm0

Invested

$377.55

Value

$449.26

PnL

+$71.7

Record

25%

381-1123 (1504)

stepahead

Invested

$278.8

Value

$314.3

PnL

+$35.51

Record

54%

3724-3126 (6850)

mo-money

Invested

$217.73

Value

$309.44

PnL

+$91.71

Record

45%

592-714 (1306)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$225

Value

$297

PnL

+$72

Record

36%

400-707 (1107)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$147.63

Value

$175.95

PnL

+$28.33

Record

60%

466-315 (781)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$188.97

Value

$147.05

PnL

-$40.02

Record

40%

330-485 (815)

GoodFallen

Invested

$101.92

Value

$123.54

PnL

+$21.62

Record

41%

349-507 (856)

blue.birds

Invested

$104.98

Value

$119.98

PnL

+$15.01

Record

52%

3683-3453 (7136)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$80.4

Value

$118.8

PnL

+$38.4

Record

53%

4104-3585 (7689)

wzbbb

Invested

$59.93

Value

$100.96

PnL

+$41.03

Record

51%

446-431 (877)

x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100

Invested

$87.38

Value

$99.46

PnL

+$12.07

Record

33%

358-737 (1095)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$34.75

Value

$54.45

PnL

+$19.7

Record

47%

548-611 (1159)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$28.65

Value

$37.47

PnL

+$8.82

Record

66%

1693-878 (2571)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$408.09

Value

$23.08

PnL

-$385.01

Record

47%

906-1010 (1916)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$8.28

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$3.69

Record

40%

614-907 (1521)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$3.75

Record

35%

503-921 (1424)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

296-340 (636)

PapeasyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.28

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$4.47

Record

50%

3433-3376 (6809)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 33 top traders (76%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUp 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUp 64% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Up 76% · 33

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.