Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
27 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
35
Down 77%
$16.2K
$-3.9K
87.2¢ → 100¢
+15% since entry · 27 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
27 of 35 top traders (77%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$4.5 | 47% 560-640 (1200) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$0.95 | 98% 1733-37 (1770) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 69.3¢ | $703.25 | $988.76 | +$285.51 | 45% 584-705 (1289) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 63.2¢ | $573.33 | $731.18 | +$159.44 | 46% 465-554 (1019) |
AL almach | Downavg 64.6¢ | $418.74 | $630.8 | +$212.06 | 46% 578-687 (1265) |
BO bosona | Downavg 65.2¢ | $405.02 | $600 | +$194.98 | 50% 3804-3824 (7628) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $492.63 | $550.49 | +$57.86 | 25% 375-1116 (1491) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59.5¢ | $279.35 | $302.53 | +$23.17 | 54% 3713-3120 (6833) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 37.9¢ | $386.07 | $293.13 | -$92.94 | 41% 325-477 (802) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 84.5¢ | $292.35 | $267.35 | -$25 | 60% 461-307 (768) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58.5¢ | $270.31 | $241.62 | -$28.69 | 52% 3662-3433 (7095) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 72.6¢ | $209.67 | $181.42 | -$19.05 | 59% 471-334 (805) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 59.6¢ | $180.79 | $179.98 | +$11.94 | 47% 538-599 (1137) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 60¢ | $180 | $166.5 | -$13.5 | 36% 395-700 (1095) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 68.3¢ | $149.87 | $160.95 | +$11.08 | 41% 346-497 (843) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 73.1¢ | $80.4 | $101.75 | +$21.35 | 33% 352-730 (1082) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $84.76 | $100.9 | +$16.13 | 47% 887-999 (1886) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $64 | $75.9 | +$11.9 | 52% 161-150 (311) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 61.9¢ | $59.44 | $61 | +$1.57 | 44% 880-1138 (2018) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $57.55 | $60.99 | +$3.94 | 66% 1661-871 (2532) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $47.32 | $54.5 | +$7.18 | 51% 373-363 (736) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $48.67 | $49.62 | +$0.94 | 62% 1888-1180 (3068) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $37.48 | $43.86 | +$6.39 | 47% 292-331 (623) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $33.6 | $42.6 | +$9 | 48% 909-982 (1891) |
PA PapeasyCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $50.93 | $35.05 | -$15.88 | 50% 3426-3372 (6798) |
Invested
$8,997.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$4.5
Record
47%
560-640 (1200)
Invested
$1,169.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$0.95
Record
98%
1733-37 (1770)
Invested
$703.25
Value
$988.76
PnL
+$285.51
Record
45%
584-705 (1289)
Invested
$573.33
Value
$731.18
PnL
+$159.44
Record
46%
465-554 (1019)
Invested
$418.74
Value
$630.8
PnL
+$212.06
Record
46%
578-687 (1265)
Invested
$405.02
Value
$600
PnL
+$194.98
Record
50%
3804-3824 (7628)
Invested
$492.63
Value
$550.49
PnL
+$57.86
Record
25%
375-1116 (1491)
Invested
$279.35
Value
$302.53
PnL
+$23.17
Record
54%
3713-3120 (6833)
Invested
$386.07
Value
$293.13
PnL
-$92.94
Record
41%
325-477 (802)
Invested
$292.35
Value
$267.35
PnL
-$25
Record
60%
461-307 (768)
Invested
$270.31
Value
$241.62
PnL
-$28.69
Record
52%
3662-3433 (7095)
Invested
$209.67
Value
$181.42
PnL
-$19.05
Record
59%
471-334 (805)
Invested
$180.79
Value
$179.98
PnL
+$11.94
Record
47%
538-599 (1137)
Invested
$180
Value
$166.5
PnL
-$13.5
Record
36%
395-700 (1095)
Invested
$149.87
Value
$160.95
PnL
+$11.08
Record
41%
346-497 (843)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$80.4
Value
$101.75
PnL
+$21.35
Record
33%
352-730 (1082)
Invested
$84.76
Value
$100.9
PnL
+$16.13
Record
47%
887-999 (1886)
Invested
$64
Value
$75.9
PnL
+$11.9
Record
52%
161-150 (311)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$59.44
Value
$61
PnL
+$1.57
Record
44%
880-1138 (2018)
Invested
$57.55
Value
$60.99
PnL
+$3.94
Record
66%
1661-871 (2532)
Invested
$47.32
Value
$54.5
PnL
+$7.18
Record
51%
373-363 (736)
Invested
$48.67
Value
$49.62
PnL
+$0.94
Record
62%
1888-1180 (3068)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$37.48
Value
$43.86
PnL
+$6.39
Record
47%
292-331 (623)
ohioism<$100Invested
$33.6
Value
$42.6
PnL
+$9
Record
48%
909-982 (1891)
Invested
$50.93
Value
$35.05
PnL
-$15.88
Record
50%
3426-3372 (6798)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K
mo-money
Down — $988.76
CrouchPredictions
Down — $731.18
almach
Down — $630.8
bosona
Down — $600
ply-pm0
Down — $550.49
stepahead
Down — $302.53
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $293.13
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $267.35