Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 26% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 26%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 34 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares15,346

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Up25 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares8,947

Combined PnL-$466.64

Down — 26%Up — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocketCTR	Downavg 40.9¢	$4.4K	—	$-4.4K	24% 39-126 (165)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 31.4¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	-$190.24	20% 187-732 (919)
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.4¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.6¢	$483.85	$1.1K	+$1.0K
AL almachCTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$3.0K	—	$-3.0K	46% 578-687 (1265)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 78.4¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$128.85	46% 465-554 (1019)
BO bosona	Upavg 67.3¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$271.25	50% 3804-3824 (7628)
MO mo-money	Upavg 69.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$246.78	45% 584-705 (1289)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 80.9¢	$730.88	$903.32	+$172.44	36% 395-700 (1095)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 62.9¢	$743.53	$646.06	-$97.46	25% 375-1116 (1491)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 82.6¢	$517.76	$574.99	+$57.23	51% 373-363 (736)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$489.3	$338.32	-$150.98	47% 887-999 (1886)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$329.22	—	-$329.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$160.09	$338.32	+$178.24
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$461.89	$466.56	+$4.67	98% 1733-37 (1770)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 90.2¢	$722.01	$420.63	-$301.38	60% 461-307 (768)
ST stepahead	Upavg 59¢	$449.25	$409.76	-$39.49	54% 3713-3120 (6833)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 53.7¢	$266.92	$368.32	+$101.4	33% 352-730 (1082)
PB PBot-5	Upavg 52.4¢	$200.33	$358.58	+$158.25	47% 538-599 (1137)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 42.6¢	$328.75	—	-$328.75	41% 325-477 (802)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77.4¢	$243.49	$191.74	-$51.75	52% 3662-3433 (7095)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 62.4¢	$108.8	$166.63	+$57.83	51% 438-426 (864)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Downavg 52¢	$175.76	—	-$175.76	51% 367-356 (723)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 43.9¢	$294.5	—	-$271.75	59% 471-334 (805)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 47.7¢	$149.99	—	-$149.99	41% 346-497 (843)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 75.7¢	$99.62	$115	+$15.38	50% 3426-3372 (6798)
PL ply-pm4	Upavg 56.2¢	$110.17	$107.84	-$2.33	14% 52-326 (378)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 48.4¢	$79.43	$92	+$21.96	47% 292-331 (623)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 53.5¢	$69.25	$64.99	-$4.25	53% 4100-3577 (7677)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$26.45	$64.99	+$38.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$42.8	—	-$42.8

borderlocketCTR

Down

Invested

$4,383.3

Value

—

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

24%

39-126 (165)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,148.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$190.24

Record

20%

187-732 (919)

Both legs:

Down$1,201.5431.4¢$-1.2K

Up$483.8545.6¢+$1.0K

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$2,972.2

Value

—

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

46%

578-687 (1265)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,555.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$128.85

Record

46%

465-554 (1019)

bosona

Invested

$1,517.87

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$271.25

Record

50%

3804-3824 (7628)

mo-money

Invested

$1,330.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$246.78

Record

45%

584-705 (1289)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$730.88

Value

$903.32

PnL

+$172.44

Record

36%

395-700 (1095)

ply-pm0

Invested

$743.53

Value

$646.06

PnL

-$97.46

Record

25%

375-1116 (1491)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$517.76

Value

$574.99

PnL

+$57.23

Record

51%

373-363 (736)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$489.3

Value

$338.32

PnL

-$150.98

Record

47%

887-999 (1886)

Both legs:

Down$329.2247.4¢-$329.22

Up$160.0947.3¢+$178.24

hoodquant

Invested

$461.89

Value

$466.56

PnL

+$4.67

Record

98%

1733-37 (1770)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$722.01

Value

$420.63

PnL

-$301.38

Record

60%

461-307 (768)

stepahead

Invested

$449.25

Value

$409.76

PnL

-$39.49

Record

54%

3713-3120 (6833)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$266.92

Value

$368.32

PnL

+$101.4

Record

33%

352-730 (1082)

PBot-5

Invested

$200.33

Value

$358.58

PnL

+$158.25

Record

47%

538-599 (1137)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$328.75

Value

—

PnL

-$328.75

Record

41%

325-477 (802)

blue.birds

Invested

$243.49

Value

$191.74

PnL

-$51.75

Record

52%

3662-3433 (7095)

wzbbb

Invested

$108.8

Value

$166.63

PnL

+$57.83

Record

51%

438-426 (864)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Down

Invested

$175.76

Value

—

PnL

-$175.76

Record

51%

367-356 (723)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$294.5

Value

—

PnL

-$271.75

Record

59%

471-334 (805)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$149.99

Value

—

PnL

-$149.99

Record

41%

346-497 (843)

Papeasy

Invested

$99.62

Value

$115

PnL

+$15.38

Record

50%

3426-3372 (6798)

ply-pm4

Invested

$110.17

Value

$107.84

PnL

-$2.33

Record

14%

52-326 (378)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$79.43

Value

$92

PnL

+$21.96

Record

47%

292-331 (623)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$69.25

Value

$64.99

PnL

-$4.25

Record

53%

4100-3577 (7677)

Both legs:

Up$26.4540.7¢+$38.55

Down$42.853.5¢-$42.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 34 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x96f846e4...725c1b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794425100

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Down — $0

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.4K

-$128.85

bosona

Up — $1.2K

-$271.25

mo-money

Up — $1.1K

-$246.78

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $903.32

+$172.44

ply-pm0

Up — $646.06

-$97.46

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Up — $574.99

+$57.23

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$150.98

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