Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 82%
7 arb excluded
$29.8K
$511.07
Smart Money Signal
28 of 34 top traders (82%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 53.7¢ | $5.6K | $10.3K | +$4.8K | 24% 39-126 (165) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 44.3¢ | $3.6K | $4.5K | +$1.2K | 20% 187-732 (919) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR | Upavg 53.7¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 6% 26-436 (462) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 52.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$74.51 | 46% 465-554 (1019) |
BO bosona | Downavg 75.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$110.09 | 50% 3804-3824 (7628) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$5.3 | 25% 375-1116 (1491) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 76.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$16.36 | 45% 584-705 (1289) |
AL almach | Downavg 73.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$15.8 | 46% 578-687 (1265) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 65.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$1.55 | 52% 3662-3433 (7095) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $981.37 | -$167.61 | 47% 887-999 (1886) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 58.5¢ | $905.93 | $936 | +$30.07 | 54% 3713-3120 (6833) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 54.2¢ | $602.56 | $823.59 | +$221.02 | 60% 461-307 (768) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 44¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 59% 471-334 (805) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 56.4¢ | $530.59 | $598.85 | +$68.26 | 41% 325-477 (802) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 59.1¢ | $427.21 | $412.15 | -$15.05 | 33% 352-730 (1082) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54.1¢ | $376.43 | $402.76 | +$26.33 | 41% 346-497 (843) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $296.92 | $316.03 | +$23.95 | 47% 538-599 (1137) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Upavg 46.1¢ | $559.3 | $171.98 | -$387.32 | 51% 367-356 (723) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $92.02 | $171.98 | +$79.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46.1¢ | $467.28 | — | -$467.28 | |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 89.7¢ | $215.15 | $174.05 | -$39.68 | 66% 1661-871 (2532) |
 ohioism | Downavg 67.6¢ | $135.09 | $164.33 | +$29.25 | 48% 909-982 (1891) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 62.2¢ | $131.5 | $161.31 | +$29.81 | 51% 438-426 (864) |
HS HsilverbasherARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $194 | $280 | +$86 | 52% 161-150 (311) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $159.6 | $280 | +$120.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43¢ | $34.4 | — | -$34.4 | |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489CTR | Upavg 44.9¢ | $184.66 | — | -$146.85 | 57% 39-29 (68) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 39.2¢ | $141.96 | $113.29 | -$28.67 | 53% 4100-3577 (7677) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.3¢ | $59.25 | $113.29 | +$54.04 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.2¢ | $82.71 | — | -$82.71 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 37.8¢ | $136.07 | $84.5 | -$51.57 | 51% 373-363 (736) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20¢ | $16.9 | $84.5 | +$67.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.8¢ | $119.17 | — | -$119.17 |
Invested
$5,555.64
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$4.8K
Record
24%
39-126 (165)
AtomforgeInvested
$3,618.84
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
20%
187-732 (919)
Invested
$4,966.48
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
6%
26-436 (462)
Invested
$1,748.86
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$74.51
Record
46%
465-554 (1019)
Invested
$1,573.13
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$110.09
Record
50%
3804-3824 (7628)
Invested
$1,359.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$5.3
Record
25%
375-1116 (1491)
Invested
$1,385.69
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$16.36
Record
45%
584-705 (1289)
Invested
$1,278.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$15.8
Record
46%
578-687 (1265)
Invested
$1,009.44
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$1.55
Record
52%
3662-3433 (7095)
Invested
$1,148.98
Value
$981.37
PnL
-$167.61
Record
47%
887-999 (1886)
Invested
$905.93
Value
$936
PnL
+$30.07
Record
54%
3713-3120 (6833)
Invested
$602.56
Value
$823.59
PnL
+$221.02
Record
60%
461-307 (768)
Invested
$1,040.11
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
59%
471-334 (805)
Invested
$530.59
Value
$598.85
PnL
+$68.26
Record
41%
325-477 (802)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$427.21
Value
$412.15
PnL
-$15.05
Record
33%
352-730 (1082)
Invested
$376.43
Value
$402.76
PnL
+$26.33
Record
41%
346-497 (843)
Invested
$296.92
Value
$316.03
PnL
+$23.95
Record
47%
538-599 (1137)
Invested
$559.3
Value
$171.98
PnL
-$387.32
Record
51%
367-356 (723)
Both legs:
Invested
$215.15
Value
$174.05
PnL
-$39.68
Record
66%
1661-871 (2532)
ohioismInvested
$135.09
Value
$164.33
PnL
+$29.25
Record
48%
909-982 (1891)
Invested
$131.5
Value
$161.31
PnL
+$29.81
Record
51%
438-426 (864)
Invested
$194
Value
$280
PnL
+$86
Record
52%
161-150 (311)
Both legs:
Invested
$184.66
Value
—
PnL
-$146.85
Record
57%
39-29 (68)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$141.96
Value
$113.29
PnL
-$28.67
Record
53%
4100-3577 (7677)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.07
Value
$84.5
PnL
-$51.57
Record
51%
373-363 (736)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $10.3K
Atomforge
Down — $4.5K
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.7K
bosona
Down — $1.7K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.4K
mo-money
Down — $1.3K
almach
Down — $1.3K
blue.birds
Down — $1.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $981.37