Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 70%
4 arb excluded
$24.4K
$6.2K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 37 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 58.2¢ | $5.9K | $10.1K | +$4.2K | 24% 39-126 (165) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Downavg 60.3¢ | $2.7K | $4.4K | +$1.8K | 6% 26-436 (462) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 50.3¢ | $917.48 | $1.8K | +$906.16 | 20% 187-732 (919) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$61.51 | 52% 3662-3433 (7095) |
BO bosona | Downavg 65.5¢ | $892.22 | $937 | +$44.77 | 50% 3804-3824 (7628) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 64.9¢ | $579.45 | $699.17 | +$119.71 | 45% 584-705 (1289) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.3¢ | $734.49 | $681.77 | -$52.72 | 41% 325-477 (802) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.9¢ | $602.43 | $705.72 | +$103.29 | 59% 471-334 (805) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 85.2¢ | $541.06 | $536.99 | -$4.07 | 60% 461-307 (768) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $492.84 | $262.03 | -$230.81 | 46% 465-554 (1019) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $349.13 | — | -$349.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.8¢ | $143.7 | $262.03 | +$118.32 | |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $397.71 | $430 | +$32.29 | 57% 39-29 (68) |
AL almach | Downavg 66.9¢ | $363.75 | $429.77 | +$66.02 | 46% 578-687 (1265) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $551.49 | $393.6 | -$157.89 | 25% 375-1116 (1491) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 73.4¢ | $305.9 | $263.46 | -$42.44 | 41% 346-497 (843) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 69.4¢ | $172.2 | $150 | -$13.7 | 53% 4100-3577 (7677) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $177.5 | $126.93 | -$50.57 | 54% 3713-3120 (6833) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.9¢ | $72.25 | $126.93 | +$54.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.1¢ | $105.25 | — | -$105.25 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 46.9¢ | $309.17 | — | -$309.17 | 47% 887-999 (1886) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $96 | $195.91 | +$99.91 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $60.53 | $96.86 | +$36.33 | 14% 52-326 (378) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $80.26 | $80 | -$0.26 | 33% 352-730 (1082) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.1¢ | $62.34 | $62.08 | -$0.26 | 51% 373-363 (736) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45¢ | $27.94 | $62.08 | +$34.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.1¢ | $34.4 | — | -$34.4 | |
PA PapeasyARB<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $86.42 | $75 | -$11.42 | 50% 3426-3372 (6798) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $41.25 | $75 | +$33.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.9¢ | $45.17 | — | -$45.17 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $73.69 | $72.48 | -$1.21 | 48% 909-982 (1891) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 76.1¢ | $103.73 | $59.12 | -$21.11 | 44% 880-1138 (2018) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $89.05 | — | -$89.05 | 47% 560-640 (1200) |
Invested
$5,881.42
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
24%
39-126 (165)
Invested
$2,681.52
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
6%
26-436 (462)
AtomforgeInvested
$917.48
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$906.16
Record
20%
187-732 (919)
Invested
$1,566.49
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$61.51
Record
52%
3662-3433 (7095)
Invested
$892.22
Value
$937
PnL
+$44.77
Record
50%
3804-3824 (7628)
Invested
$579.45
Value
$699.17
PnL
+$119.71
Record
45%
584-705 (1289)
Invested
$734.49
Value
$681.77
PnL
-$52.72
Record
41%
325-477 (802)
Invested
$602.43
Value
$705.72
PnL
+$103.29
Record
59%
471-334 (805)
Invested
$541.06
Value
$536.99
PnL
-$4.07
Record
60%
461-307 (768)
Invested
$492.84
Value
$262.03
PnL
-$230.81
Record
46%
465-554 (1019)
Both legs:
Invested
$397.71
Value
$430
PnL
+$32.29
Record
57%
39-29 (68)
Invested
$363.75
Value
$429.77
PnL
+$66.02
Record
46%
578-687 (1265)
Invested
$551.49
Value
$393.6
PnL
-$157.89
Record
25%
375-1116 (1491)
Invested
$305.9
Value
$263.46
PnL
-$42.44
Record
41%
346-497 (843)
FairValueMachineInvested
$172.2
Value
$150
PnL
-$13.7
Record
53%
4100-3577 (7677)
Invested
$177.5
Value
$126.93
PnL
-$50.57
Record
54%
3713-3120 (6833)
Both legs:
Invested
$309.17
Value
—
PnL
-$309.17
Record
47%
887-999 (1886)
Invested
$96
Value
$195.91
PnL
+$99.91
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$60.53
Value
$96.86
PnL
+$36.33
Record
14%
52-326 (378)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$80.26
Value
$80
PnL
-$0.26
Record
33%
352-730 (1082)
Invested
$62.34
Value
$62.08
PnL
-$0.26
Record
51%
373-363 (736)
Both legs:
Invested
$86.42
Value
$75
PnL
-$11.42
Record
50%
3426-3372 (6798)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$73.69
Value
$72.48
PnL
-$1.21
Record
48%
909-982 (1891)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$103.73
Value
$59.12
PnL
-$21.11
Record
44%
880-1138 (2018)
Invested
$89.05
Value
—
PnL
-$89.05
Record
47%
560-640 (1200)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $10.1K
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Down — $4.4K
Atomforge
Down — $1.8K
blue.birds
Down — $1.6K
bosona
Down — $937
mo-money
Down — $699.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $681.77
Bonereaper
Down — $705.72
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $536.99
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded