Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 36 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares16,509

Combined PnL+$57.58

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,113

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh	Downavg 80.5¢	$5.2K	$4.2K	-$658.44	6% 26-436 (462)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 88.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$23.95	59% 471-334 (805)
Atomforge	Downavg 72.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$23.33	20% 187-732 (919)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.4¢	$526.6	$1.1K	+$561.58	47% 887-999 (1886)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 73.3¢	$988.06	$933.96	+$32.29	52% 3662-3433 (7095)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 71.2¢	$1.2K	$933.74	-$272.21	46% 578-687 (1265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.2¢	$665.04	$933.74	+$268.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.9¢	$540.91	—	-$540.91
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 79¢	$946.99	$919.6	-$27.38	60% 461-307 (768)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.4¢	$688.49	$789.08	+$100.6	41% 325-477 (802)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$912.91	$684.03	-$228.88	50% 3804-3824 (7628)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$466.54	$684.03	+$217.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$446.37	—	-$446.37
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$920.78	$684.26	-$236.52	45% 584-705 (1289)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.4¢	$481.88	$684.26	+$202.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$438.9	—	-$438.9
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$592.47	$630.98	+$38.51	46% 465-554 (1019)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.9¢	$390.81	$630.98	+$240.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.6¢	$201.66	—	-$201.66
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 82.4¢	$940.23	$700	-$142.68	57% 39-29 (68)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 64¢	$547.57	$671.09	+$123.52	51% 373-363 (736)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 69.2¢	$667.77	$627.01	-$40.77	33% 352-730 (1082)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 64.5¢	$509.86	$519.18	+$9.92	25% 375-1116 (1491)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$468.27	$473	+$4.73	98% 1733-37 (1770)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 57.4¢	$394.72	$369	-$25.72	51% 367-356 (723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$211.74	$369	+$157.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.2¢	$182.98	—	-$182.98
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 68.1¢	$350	$328.22	-$21.78	41% 346-497 (843)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$246.36	$242.12	-$4.24	54% 3713-3120 (6833)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.3¢	$155.8	$242.12	+$86.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.3¢	$90.56	—	-$90.56
FairValueMachine	Downavg 66.7¢	$187.39	$194.98	+$7.59	53% 4100-3577 (7677)
ohioism	Downavg 61.9¢	$110.71	$163.99	+$57.12	48% 909-982 (1891)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 82.7¢	$141.01	$152.19	+$11.18	66% 1661-871 (2532)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 58.5¢	$90.34	$136.57	+$46.23	44% 880-1138 (2018)
PA Papeasy	Downavg 77.5¢	$129.09	$123.26	-$5.83	50% 3426-3372 (6798)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 68.3¢	$88.8	$120	+$31.2	52% 161-150 (311)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Down

Invested

$5,221.73

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$658.44

Record

26-436 (462)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,846.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$23.95

Record

59%

471-334 (805)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,262.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$23.33

Record

20%

187-732 (919)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$526.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$561.58

Record

47%

887-999 (1886)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$988.06

Value

$933.96

PnL

+$32.29

Record

52%

3662-3433 (7095)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,205.96

Value

$933.74

PnL

-$272.21

Record

46%

578-687 (1265)

Both legs:

Down$665.0471.2¢+$268.7

Up$540.9157.9¢-$540.91

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$946.99

Value

$919.6

PnL

-$27.38

Record

60%

461-307 (768)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$688.49

Value

$789.08

PnL

+$100.6

Record

41%

325-477 (802)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$912.91

Value

$684.03

PnL

-$228.88

Record

50%

3804-3824 (7628)

Both legs:

Down$466.5468.2¢+$217.49

Up$446.3747.8¢-$446.37

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$920.78

Value

$684.26

PnL

-$236.52

Record

45%

584-705 (1289)

Both legs:

Down$481.8870.4¢+$202.38

Up$438.949¢-$438.9

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$592.47

Value

$630.98

PnL

+$38.51

Record

46%

465-554 (1019)

Both legs:

Down$390.8161.9¢+$240.17

Up$201.6619.6¢-$201.66

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$940.23

Value

$700

PnL

-$142.68

Record

57%

39-29 (68)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$547.57

Value

$671.09

PnL

+$123.52

Record

51%

373-363 (736)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$667.77

Value

$627.01

PnL

-$40.77

Record

33%

352-730 (1082)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$509.86

Value

$519.18

PnL

+$9.92

Record

25%

375-1116 (1491)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$468.27

Value

$473

PnL

+$4.73

Record

98%

1733-37 (1770)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$394.72

Value

$369

PnL

-$25.72

Record

51%

367-356 (723)

Both legs:

Down$211.7457.4¢+$157.26

Up$182.9818.2¢-$182.98

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$350

Value

$328.22

PnL

-$21.78

Record

41%

346-497 (843)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$246.36

Value

$242.12

PnL

-$4.24

Record

54%

3713-3120 (6833)

Both legs:

Down$155.864.3¢+$86.32

Up$90.5624.3¢-$90.56

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$187.39

Value

$194.98

PnL

+$7.59

Record

53%

4100-3577 (7677)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$110.71

Value

$163.99

PnL

+$57.12

Record

48%

909-982 (1891)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$141.01

Value

$152.19

PnL

+$11.18

Record

66%

1661-871 (2532)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$90.34

Value

$136.57

PnL

+$46.23

Record

44%

880-1138 (2018)

Papeasy

Down

Invested

$129.09

Value

$123.26

PnL

-$5.83

Record

50%

3426-3372 (6798)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$88.8

Value

$120

PnL

+$31.2

Record

52%

161-150 (311)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 36 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x50f0d391...dcef8b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794423900

Traders in this Market

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Down — $4.2K

-$658.44

Bonereaper

Down — $2.8K

-$23.95

Atomforge

Down — $1.2K

-$23.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.1K

+$561.58

blue.birds

Down — $933.96

+$32.29

almach

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$272.21

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $919.6

-$27.38

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $789.08

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded