Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
38
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$11.2K
$-4.0K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 38 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$54.5 | 74% 668-239 (907) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 70¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$213.4 | 46% 465-554 (1019) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $966.24 | $976 | +$9.76 | 98% 1733-37 (1770) |
AL almach | Downavg 46¢ | $300.51 | $500 | +$199.49 | 46% 578-687 (1265) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 45¢ | $284.97 | $500 | +$215.03 | 45% 584-705 (1289) |
BO bosona | Downavg 45¢ | $301.87 | $490 | +$193.63 | 50% 3804-3824 (7628) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $368.34 | $441.56 | +$73.23 | 25% 375-1116 (1491) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 88.8¢ | $420.83 | $437.29 | +$21.46 | 52% 3662-3433 (7095) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 66.8¢ | $333.25 | $461.06 | +$127.81 | 59% 471-334 (805) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 62.4¢ | $353.52 | $357.17 | +$3.65 | 33% 352-730 (1082) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 77.5¢ | $327.69 | $297.67 | -$30.02 | 41% 325-477 (802) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $253.85 | $300 | +$46.15 | 36% 395-700 (1095) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.7¢ | $213.9 | $255.36 | +$41.46 | 54% 3713-3120 (6833) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $182.44 | $169 | -$13.44 | 51% 373-363 (736) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83¢ | $140.27 | $169 | +$28.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 12¢ | $42.17 | — | -$42.17 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 54.7¢ | $183.97 | $182.61 | -$1.36 | 60% 461-307 (768) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 71.3¢ | $143.41 | $191.53 | +$48.12 | 51% 438-426 (864) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 64.4¢ | $80.55 | $125 | +$44.45 | 44% 880-1138 (2018) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.5¢ | $85.42 | $109.99 | +$24.57 | 41% 346-497 (843) |
38 38791873984189 | Downavg 49¢ | $98 | $200 | +$102 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $37.5 | $50 | +$12.5 | 49% 3363-3470 (6833) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $50.72 | $51.25 | +$0.53 | 50% 3426-3372 (6798) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.4¢ | $40.06 | — | -$40.06 | 53% 4100-3577 (7677) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $31.1 | $45.77 | +$14.66 | 66% 1661-871 (2532) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $20.65 | $35.19 | +$14.54 | 62% 1888-1180 (3068) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $34.79 | — | -$34.79 | 47% 887-999 (1886) |
BoneOhioInvested
$3,595.5
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$54.5
Record
74%
668-239 (907)
Invested
$1,074.31
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$213.4
Record
46%
465-554 (1019)
Invested
$966.24
Value
$976
PnL
+$9.76
Record
98%
1733-37 (1770)
Invested
$300.51
Value
$500
PnL
+$199.49
Record
46%
578-687 (1265)
Invested
$284.97
Value
$500
PnL
+$215.03
Record
45%
584-705 (1289)
Invested
$301.87
Value
$490
PnL
+$193.63
Record
50%
3804-3824 (7628)
Invested
$368.34
Value
$441.56
PnL
+$73.23
Record
25%
375-1116 (1491)
Invested
$420.83
Value
$437.29
PnL
+$21.46
Record
52%
3662-3433 (7095)
Invested
$333.25
Value
$461.06
PnL
+$127.81
Record
59%
471-334 (805)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$353.52
Value
$357.17
PnL
+$3.65
Record
33%
352-730 (1082)
Invested
$327.69
Value
$297.67
PnL
-$30.02
Record
41%
325-477 (802)
Invested
$253.85
Value
$300
PnL
+$46.15
Record
36%
395-700 (1095)
Invested
$213.9
Value
$255.36
PnL
+$41.46
Record
54%
3713-3120 (6833)
Invested
$182.44
Value
$169
PnL
-$13.44
Record
51%
373-363 (736)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.97
Value
$182.61
PnL
-$1.36
Record
60%
461-307 (768)
Invested
$143.41
Value
$191.53
PnL
+$48.12
Record
51%
438-426 (864)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$80.55
Value
$125
PnL
+$44.45
Record
44%
880-1138 (2018)
Invested
$85.42
Value
$109.99
PnL
+$24.57
Record
41%
346-497 (843)
Invested
$98
Value
$200
PnL
+$102
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$37.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$12.5
Record
49%
3363-3470 (6833)
Invested
$50.72
Value
$51.25
PnL
+$0.53
Record
50%
3426-3372 (6798)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$40.06
Value
—
PnL
-$40.06
Record
53%
4100-3577 (7677)
Invested
$31.1
Value
$45.77
PnL
+$14.66
Record
66%
1661-871 (2532)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$35.19
PnL
+$14.54
Record
62%
1888-1180 (3068)
Invested
$34.79
Value
—
PnL
-$34.79
Record
47%
887-999 (1886)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoneOhio
Down — $3.6K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
hoodquant
Down — $976
almach
Down — $500
mo-money
Down — $500
bosona
Down — $490
ply-pm0
Down — $441.56
blue.birds
Down — $437.29
Bonereaper
Down — $461.06
x-MoneyForWhiskas
Down — $357.17