Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
35
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$20.0K
$1.3K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 35 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO borderlocket | Downavg 83.2¢ | $3.7K | $4.5K | +$751.11 | 24% 39-126 (165) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 74% 668-239 (907) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 94.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.1K | +$173.03 | 59% 471-334 (805) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 84.1¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$208.15 | 20% 187-732 (919) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.77 | 98% 1733-37 (1770) |
AL almach | Downavg 62.5¢ | $643.24 | $1.0K | +$356.76 | 46% 578-687 (1265) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 71.2¢ | $638.25 | $649.42 | +$11.18 | 53% 1030-912 (1942) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 61.2¢ | $578.46 | $624 | +$45.54 | 46% 465-554 (1019) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 63.5¢ | $386.11 | $574.06 | +$187.95 | 45% 584-705 (1289) |
BO bosona | Downavg 63.2¢ | $290.9 | $433.49 | +$142.59 | 50% 3804-3824 (7628) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 67.9¢ | $345.37 | $360.57 | +$15.2 | 25% 375-1116 (1491) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $334.52 | $354.66 | +$20.14 | 50% 1187-1186 (2373) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.6¢ | $208.93 | $231.47 | +$24.15 | 52% 3662-3433 (7095) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 63.2¢ | $206.58 | $195.92 | -$10.67 | 33% 352-730 (1082) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 66¢ | $201.48 | $169 | -$32.48 | 51% 367-356 (723) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63.4¢ | $134.84 | $144 | +$9.16 | 54% 3713-3120 (6833) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $133.88 | $131 | -$2.88 | 41% 608-892 (1500) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $117.46 | $96.32 | -$21.14 | 51% 373-363 (736) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.2¢ | $57.74 | — | -$57.74 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62¢ | $59.72 | $96.32 | +$36.6 | |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $63.16 | $98.84 | +$35.68 | 51% 438-426 (864) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $69.1 | $97.81 | +$28.71 | 60% 461-307 (768) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $85.5 | $75 | -$10.5 | 50% 3426-3372 (6798) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 30.8¢ | $125.36 | — | -$125.36 | 41% 325-477 (802) |
PL ply-pm4<$100 | Downavg 90.1¢ | $56.95 | $63.21 | +$6.26 | 14% 52-326 (378) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 33.5¢ | $106.94 | — | -$106.94 | 41% 346-497 (843) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $49.95 | $54 | +$7.75 | 47% 292-331 (623) |
Invested
$3,731.04
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$751.11
Record
24%
39-126 (165)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
74%
668-239 (907)
Invested
$2,910.54
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$173.03
Record
59%
471-334 (805)
AtomforgeInvested
$2,343.27
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$208.15
Record
20%
187-732 (919)
Invested
$1,462.23
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.77
Record
98%
1733-37 (1770)
Invested
$643.24
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$356.76
Record
46%
578-687 (1265)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$638.25
Value
$649.42
PnL
+$11.18
Record
53%
1030-912 (1942)
Invested
$578.46
Value
$624
PnL
+$45.54
Record
46%
465-554 (1019)
Invested
$386.11
Value
$574.06
PnL
+$187.95
Record
45%
584-705 (1289)
Invested
$290.9
Value
$433.49
PnL
+$142.59
Record
50%
3804-3824 (7628)
Invested
$345.37
Value
$360.57
PnL
+$15.2
Record
25%
375-1116 (1491)
Invested
$334.52
Value
$354.66
PnL
+$20.14
Record
50%
1187-1186 (2373)
Invested
$208.93
Value
$231.47
PnL
+$24.15
Record
52%
3662-3433 (7095)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$206.58
Value
$195.92
PnL
-$10.67
Record
33%
352-730 (1082)
Invested
$201.48
Value
$169
PnL
-$32.48
Record
51%
367-356 (723)
Invested
$134.84
Value
$144
PnL
+$9.16
Record
54%
3713-3120 (6833)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$133.88
Value
$131
PnL
-$2.88
Record
41%
608-892 (1500)
Invested
$117.46
Value
$96.32
PnL
-$21.14
Record
51%
373-363 (736)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.16
Value
$98.84
PnL
+$35.68
Record
51%
438-426 (864)
Invested
$69.1
Value
$97.81
PnL
+$28.71
Record
60%
461-307 (768)
Invested
$85.5
Value
$75
PnL
-$10.5
Record
50%
3426-3372 (6798)
Invested
$125.36
Value
—
PnL
-$125.36
Record
41%
325-477 (802)
Invested
$56.95
Value
$63.21
PnL
+$6.26
Record
14%
52-326 (378)
Invested
$106.94
Value
—
PnL
-$106.94
Record
41%
346-497 (843)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$49.95
Value
$54
PnL
+$7.75
Record
47%
292-331 (623)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
borderlocket
Down — $4.5K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $3.1K
Atomforge
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
almach
Down — $1.0K
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $649.42
CrouchPredictions
Down — $624
mo-money
Down — $574.06
bosona
Down — $433.49