Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

29 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Down (74%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$41.03

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 99.5¢

+30% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 39 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down29 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,802

Combined PnL+$209.34

Up10 traders

Total Value$551.73

Total Shares2,888

Combined PnL-$168.32

Down — 74%Up — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Downavg 60.3¢	$705	$1.1K	+$434.05	24% 39-126 (165)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 88.5¢	$740.57	$655.48	-$83.33	58% 463-331 (794)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 74¢	$513.43	$499.9	+$22.1	52% 3643-3416 (7059)
Atomforge	Downavg 80¢	$307.85	$321.54	+$13.69	20% 185-731 (916)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 76.6¢	$307.55	$279.41	-$28.14	50% 1159-1165 (2324)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 78.1¢	$271.03	$262.82	-$8.21	60% 456-301 (757)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 70.4¢	$236.91	$258.22	+$21.31	32% 348-723 (1071)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 82¢	$353.93	$257.74	-$96.19	45% 456-548 (1004)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 25.5¢	$360.61	$246.76	-$113.85	40% 320-471 (791)
BO bosona	Downavg 92¢	$238.97	$243.93	+$4.95	50% 3793-3812 (7605)
AL almach	Downavg 81.5¢	$224.79	$234.68	+$9.89	46% 567-675 (1242)
ST stepahead	Downavg 70.3¢	$245.31	$233.67	-$11.64	54% 3706-3112 (6818)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 89.4¢	$188.74	$205.78	+$17.04	51% 362-350 (712)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 96.1¢	$198.46	$176.04	-$22.43	51% 369-356 (725)
MO mo-money	Downavg 92.6¢	$226.89	$163.67	-$57.02	45% 571-696 (1267)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 67¢	$146.94	$150.75	+$3.81	53% 1012-899 (1911)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$88.78	$112.01	+$23.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$58.15	$38.74	-$19.42
38 38791873984189CTR	Upavg 48.7¢	$138.69	$143.81	+$5.12	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76¢	$120.26	$101.1	-$19.15	25% 368-1112 (1480)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 20.9¢	$121.2	$95.56	-$25.64	40% 521-792 (1313)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89.5¢	$85.47	$93.09	+$7.62	61% 1857-1168 (3025)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$72.06	$89.13	+$17.07	53% 4097-3569 (7666)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$84.78	$87.64	+$2.86	49% 3341-3455 (6796)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$63.1	$60.47	-$2.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$21.68	$27.17	+$5.49
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 79.8¢	$111.77	$74.2	-$30.67	41% 344-488 (832)
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 70.3¢	$64.5	$60.97	-$0.67	47% 286-326 (612)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$54.36	$49.92	-$1.29	44% 870-1125 (1995)

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$705

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$434.05

Record

24%

39-126 (165)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$740.57

Value

$655.48

PnL

-$83.33

Record

58%

463-331 (794)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$513.43

Value

$499.9

PnL

+$22.1

Record

52%

3643-3416 (7059)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$307.85

Value

$321.54

PnL

+$13.69

Record

20%

185-731 (916)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$307.55

Value

$279.41

PnL

-$28.14

Record

50%

1159-1165 (2324)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$271.03

Value

$262.82

PnL

-$8.21

Record

60%

456-301 (757)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$236.91

Value

$258.22

PnL

+$21.31

Record

32%

348-723 (1071)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$353.93

Value

$257.74

PnL

-$96.19

Record

45%

456-548 (1004)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$360.61

Value

$246.76

PnL

-$113.85

Record

40%

320-471 (791)

bosona

Down

Invested

$238.97

Value

$243.93

PnL

+$4.95

Record

50%

3793-3812 (7605)

almach

Down

Invested

$224.79

Value

$234.68

PnL

+$9.89

Record

46%

567-675 (1242)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$245.31

Value

$233.67

PnL

-$11.64

Record

54%

3706-3112 (6818)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$188.74

Value

$205.78

PnL

+$17.04

Record

51%

362-350 (712)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$198.46

Value

$176.04

PnL

-$22.43

Record

51%

369-356 (725)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$226.89

Value

$163.67

PnL

-$57.02

Record

45%

571-696 (1267)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.94

Value

$150.75

PnL

+$3.81

Record

53%

1012-899 (1911)

Both legs:

Down$88.7867¢+$23.23

Up$58.1523.3¢-$19.42

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$138.69

Value

$143.81

PnL

+$5.12

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$120.26

Value

$101.1

PnL

-$19.15

Record

25%

368-1112 (1480)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$121.2

Value

$95.56

PnL

-$25.64

Record

40%

521-792 (1313)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$85.47

Value

$93.09

PnL

+$7.62

Record

61%

1857-1168 (3025)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$72.06

Value

$89.13

PnL

+$17.07

Record

53%

4097-3569 (7666)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.78

Value

$87.64

PnL

+$2.86

Record

49%

3341-3455 (6796)

Both legs:

Invested

$111.77

Value

$74.2

PnL

-$30.67

Record

41%

344-488 (832)

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$64.5

Value

$60.97

PnL

-$0.67

Record

47%

286-326 (612)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$54.36

Value

$49.92

PnL

-$1.29

Record

44%

870-1125 (1995)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

29 of 39 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.