Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Down 69%
11 arb excluded
$13.4K
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 29 top traders (69%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 55.3¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.8K | 58% 436-310 (746) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 53.4¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.1K | 41% 301-442 (743) |
BO bosona | Downavg 32¢ | $385.75 | $1.1K | +$714.64 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 35.4¢ | $684.48 | $1.0K | +$339.76 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
AL almach | Downavg 43¢ | $458.15 | $976.69 | +$518.54 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 25.9¢ | $399.39 | $1.3K | +$850.8 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 46.9¢ | $710.24 | — | -$651.46 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 44.3¢ | $534.34 | $751.03 | +$216.69 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $603.9 | $610 | +$6.1 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $441.67 | $602.23 | +$160.56 | 52% 351-330 (681) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $541.26 | $610.97 | +$69.71 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.7¢ | $326.73 | — | -$326.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.1¢ | $214.53 | $610.97 | +$396.44 | |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 56.2¢ | $499.68 | $546.09 | +$50.2 | 38% 603-967 (1570) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $505.46 | $543.57 | +$38.11 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.5¢ | $241.63 | $543.57 | +$301.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $263.83 | — | -$263.83 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 45.1¢ | $356.94 | $540.28 | +$183.34 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 34.8¢ | $379.51 | $454.15 | +$74.64 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.3¢ | $164.77 | $454.15 | +$289.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.8¢ | $214.74 | — | -$214.74 | |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 61.4¢ | $441.81 | — | -$441.81 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
 ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $302.66 | $255 | -$47.66 | 48% 838-904 (1742) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.2¢ | $209.19 | — | -$209.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.7¢ | $93.47 | $255 | +$161.53 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $490.11 | $966.49 | +$476.37 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 62.6¢ | $594.26 | — | -$594.26 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
PB PBot-5ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $448.13 | $645.66 | +$197.53 | 47% 485-549 (1034) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.8¢ | $128.13 | — | -$128.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $320 | $645.66 | +$325.66 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $260.11 | $263.07 | +$2.96 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $149.29 | — | -$149.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.1¢ | $110.82 | $263.07 | +$152.25 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 46.9¢ | $186.62 | $232.34 | +$56.22 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 41.3¢ | $184 | $229.13 | +$45.13 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.3¢ | $94.57 | $229.13 | +$134.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.8¢ | $89.43 | — | -$89.43 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $212.64 | $215.73 | +$3.09 | 49% 3270-3379 (6649) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.3¢ | $95.67 | $215.73 | +$120.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.6¢ | $116.97 | — | -$116.97 |
Invested
$1,835.58
Value
—
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$1,599.55
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Invested
$1,180.64
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$385.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$714.64
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Invested
$684.48
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$339.76
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Invested
$458.15
Value
$976.69
PnL
+$518.54
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$399.39
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$850.8
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$710.24
Value
—
PnL
-$651.46
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Invested
$534.34
Value
$751.03
PnL
+$216.69
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$603.9
Value
$610
PnL
+$6.1
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$441.67
Value
$602.23
PnL
+$160.56
Record
52%
351-330 (681)
Invested
$541.26
Value
$610.97
PnL
+$69.71
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
Both legs:
Invested
$499.68
Value
$546.09
PnL
+$50.2
Record
38%
603-967 (1570)
Invested
$505.46
Value
$543.57
PnL
+$38.11
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$356.94
Value
$540.28
PnL
+$183.34
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
Invested
$379.51
Value
$454.15
PnL
+$74.64
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Both legs:
Invested
$441.81
Value
—
PnL
-$441.81
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$302.66
Value
$255
PnL
-$47.66
Record
48%
838-904 (1742)
Both legs:
Invested
$490.11
Value
$966.49
PnL
+$476.37
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
Invested
$594.26
Value
—
PnL
-$594.26
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
Invested
$448.13
Value
$645.66
PnL
+$197.53
Record
47%
485-549 (1034)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$260.11
Value
$263.07
PnL
+$2.96
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$186.62
Value
$232.34
PnL
+$56.22
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$184
Value
$229.13
PnL
+$45.13
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.64
Value
$215.73
PnL
+$3.09
Record
49%
3270-3379 (6649)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.0K
almach
Down — $976.69
mo-money
Down — $1.3K
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $751.03
hoodquant
Down — $610