Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Down 84%
1 arb excluded
$9.9K
$723.55
Smart Money Signal
31 of 37 top traders (84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.9K | +$517.43 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $969.52 | $987.59 | +$18.07 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80.3¢ | $872.79 | $855.76 | -$17.03 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71¢ | $705.95 | $612.91 | -$90.63 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 59.1¢ | $370.34 | $609.04 | +$238.7 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 76.2¢ | $552.2 | $581.56 | +$29.36 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.8¢ | $505.78 | $457.95 | -$47.83 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.5¢ | $435.11 | $414.05 | -$21.06 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
BO bosona | Downavg 63.8¢ | $222.93 | $304.32 | +$81.39 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $310.79 | $291.79 | +$40.39 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 60.5¢ | $261.61 | $258.42 | +$3.67 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $177.43 | $188.54 | +$11.11 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.9¢ | $139.31 | $188.54 | +$49.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 7¢ | $38.12 | — | -$38.12 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 44.8¢ | $315.95 | — | -$255.92 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 63.7¢ | $253.41 | $217.16 | -$36.25 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 79.7¢ | $174.6 | $210 | +$35.4 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $154.59 | $276.01 | +$121.42 | 47% 485-549 (1034) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 64.7¢ | $165.38 | $190 | +$24.61 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 88.3¢ | $165.96 | $183.59 | +$20.23 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 88¢ | $219.2 | $168.99 | -$50.21 | 52% 351-330 (681) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 60.1¢ | $107.75 | $163.2 | +$59.71 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 82¢ | $157 | $149.99 | -$7 | 74% 622-215 (837) |
 ohioism | Downavg 71.9¢ | $121.1 | $139.98 | +$18.89 | 48% 838-904 (1742) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 79.1¢ | $107.79 | $127.63 | +$19.84 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $76.4 | $120.33 | +$43.93 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67.5¢ | $132.39 | $112.66 | -$19.74 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
Invested
$1,416.13
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$517.43
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
Invested
$969.52
Value
$987.59
PnL
+$18.07
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$872.79
Value
$855.76
PnL
-$17.03
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Invested
$705.95
Value
$612.91
PnL
-$90.63
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
machinelearnedInvested
$370.34
Value
$609.04
PnL
+$238.7
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Invested
$552.2
Value
$581.56
PnL
+$29.36
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Invested
$505.78
Value
$457.95
PnL
-$47.83
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$435.11
Value
$414.05
PnL
-$21.06
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$222.93
Value
$304.32
PnL
+$81.39
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Invested
$310.79
Value
$291.79
PnL
+$40.39
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$261.61
Value
$258.42
PnL
+$3.67
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Invested
$177.43
Value
$188.54
PnL
+$11.11
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Both legs:
Invested
$315.95
Value
—
PnL
-$255.92
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Invested
$253.41
Value
$217.16
PnL
-$36.25
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$174.6
Value
$210
PnL
+$35.4
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
Invested
$154.59
Value
$276.01
PnL
+$121.42
Record
47%
485-549 (1034)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$165.38
Value
$190
PnL
+$24.61
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$165.96
Value
$183.59
PnL
+$20.23
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
Invested
$219.2
Value
$168.99
PnL
-$50.21
Record
52%
351-330 (681)
Invested
$107.75
Value
$163.2
PnL
+$59.71
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
BoneOhioInvested
$157
Value
$149.99
PnL
-$7
Record
74%
622-215 (837)
ohioismInvested
$121.1
Value
$139.98
PnL
+$18.89
Record
48%
838-904 (1742)
Invested
$107.79
Value
$127.63
PnL
+$19.84
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Invested
$76.4
Value
$120.33
PnL
+$43.93
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
FairValueMachineInvested
$132.39
Value
$112.66
PnL
-$19.74
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.9K
hoodquant
Down — $987.59
blue.birds
Down — $855.76
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $612.91
machinelearned
Down — $609.04
CrouchPredictions
Down — $581.56
Bonereaper
Down — $457.95
stepahead
Down — $414.05
bosona
Down — $304.32
ply-pm0
Down — $291.79