Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
33
Down 76%
2 arb excluded
$5.0K
$101.8
Smart Money Signal
25 of 33 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mo-money | Downavg 74.4¢ | $530.6 | $690.52 | +$159.92 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
AL almach | Downavg 75¢ | $498.19 | $664.2 | +$166.01 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83¢ | $434.22 | $475.58 | +$41.36 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.2¢ | $398.68 | $356.92 | -$41.76 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 71¢ | $331.62 | $330.25 | -$1.37 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.3¢ | $329.68 | $287.95 | -$41.73 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 72.4¢ | $195.59 | $220.28 | +$24.7 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 64.5¢ | $192.34 | $191 | -$1.34 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $213.62 | $156.15 | -$57.47 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.6¢ | $130.51 | $156.15 | +$25.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.9¢ | $83.11 | — | -$83.11 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $201.61 | $186.61 | -$14.99 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 91.1¢ | $167.7 | $159.98 | -$7.72 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $136.12 | $148.97 | +$12.85 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
BO bosona | Downavg 78.8¢ | $154.56 | $196.18 | +$41.61 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 81.5¢ | $156.49 | $144.56 | -$11.93 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.6¢ | $61.61 | — | -$61.61 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 72.2¢ | $132.25 | $128.35 | -$3.9 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $129.36 | $132 | +$2.64 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 85.2¢ | $124.06 | $126.13 | +$2.07 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR | Upavg 30.2¢ | $109.05 | — | -$109.05 | 52% 351-330 (681) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $107.5 | $104.29 | -$3.21 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $73 | $104.29 | +$31.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.5¢ | $34.5 | — | -$34.5 | |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $88.52 | $92.13 | +$7.16 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $49.5 | $50 | +$0.5 | 49% 3270-3379 (6649) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $36.96 | $49.99 | +$13.03 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $46.38 | $36 | -$10.38 | 47% 266-299 (565) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $19.99 | — | -$19.99 | 38% 603-967 (1570) |
Invested
$530.6
Value
$690.52
PnL
+$159.92
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Invested
$498.19
Value
$664.2
PnL
+$166.01
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
machinelearnedInvested
$434.22
Value
$475.58
PnL
+$41.36
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Invested
$398.68
Value
$356.92
PnL
-$41.76
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Invested
$331.62
Value
$330.25
PnL
-$1.37
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$329.68
Value
$287.95
PnL
-$41.73
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Invested
$195.59
Value
$220.28
PnL
+$24.7
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Invested
$192.34
Value
$191
PnL
-$1.34
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$213.62
Value
$156.15
PnL
-$57.47
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Both legs:
Invested
$201.61
Value
$186.61
PnL
-$14.99
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$167.7
Value
$159.98
PnL
-$7.72
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Invested
$136.12
Value
$148.97
PnL
+$12.85
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
Invested
$154.56
Value
$196.18
PnL
+$41.61
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$156.49
Value
$144.56
PnL
-$11.93
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$61.61
Value
—
PnL
-$61.61
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
Invested
$132.25
Value
$128.35
PnL
-$3.9
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$129.36
Value
$132
PnL
+$2.64
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$124.06
Value
$126.13
PnL
+$2.07
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
Invested
$109.05
Value
—
PnL
-$109.05
Record
52%
351-330 (681)
Invested
$107.5
Value
$104.29
PnL
-$3.21
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.52
Value
$92.13
PnL
+$7.16
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
3270-3379 (6649)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$36.96
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$13.03
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$46.38
Value
$36
PnL
-$10.38
Record
47%
266-299 (565)
Invested
$19.99
Value
—
PnL
-$19.99
Record
38%
603-967 (1570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
mo-money
Down — $690.52
almach
Down — $664.2
machinelearned
Down — $475.58
blue.birds
Down — $356.92
Bonereaper
Down — $330.25
CrouchPredictions
Down — $287.95
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $220.28
stepahead
Down — $191
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $186.61