Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
32
Up 53%
4 arb excluded
$7.0K
-$361.36
Smart Money Signal
17 of 32 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$15.08 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.7¢ | $926.93 | $915.4 | +$60.63 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $658.63 | $610.19 | -$48.45 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.3¢ | $233.2 | — | -$233.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.7¢ | $425.44 | $610.19 | +$184.75 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $506.46 | $440.65 | -$54.34 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.6¢ | $417.16 | $435.33 | +$37.37 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 76.8¢ | $504.75 | $400.95 | -$103.79 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $482 | $500 | +$18 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82¢ | $410 | $500 | +$90 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.7¢ | $72 | — | -$72 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 78.7¢ | $345.13 | $329.37 | -$15.76 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $400 | $265.48 | +$29.57 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 66¢ | $234.38 | $202.06 | -$32.33 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 78.1¢ | $229.95 | $212.09 | -$17.86 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 85.6¢ | $241.16 | $198.24 | -$42.92 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 73.9¢ | $169.01 | $165.21 | -$3.81 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $161.96 | $320.97 | +$159 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 68¢ | $134.5 | $161.88 | +$27.38 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100 | Downavg 29.3¢ | $128.49 | $62.2 | -$66.29 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.3¢ | $84.33 | — | -$84.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $44.16 | $62.2 | +$18.04 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $105.43 | $128.51 | +$23.09 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.5¢ | $78.99 | $128.51 | +$49.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.9¢ | $26.44 | — | -$26.44 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 73.1¢ | $107.65 | $91.47 | -$5.38 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
AL almach | Upavg 82¢ | $82 | $100 | +$18 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 75.5¢ | $52.85 | $70 | +$17.15 | 48% 838-904 (1742) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 21.6¢ | $111.75 | — | -$81.33 | 49% 3270-3379 (6649) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 70.9¢ | $45.13 | $39 | -$6.13 | 47% 266-299 (565) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.2¢ | $68.61 | — | -$54.45 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $36 | — | -$36 | 74% 622-215 (837) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.3¢ | $29.66 | — | -$29.66 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
Invested
$1,314.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$15.08
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$926.93
Value
$915.4
PnL
+$60.63
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$658.63
Value
$610.19
PnL
-$48.45
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Both legs:
Invested
$506.46
Value
$440.65
PnL
-$54.34
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Invested
$417.16
Value
$435.33
PnL
+$37.37
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$504.75
Value
$400.95
PnL
-$103.79
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$482
Value
$500
PnL
+$18
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Both legs:
Invested
$345.13
Value
$329.37
PnL
-$15.76
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$400
Value
$265.48
PnL
+$29.57
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Invested
$234.38
Value
$202.06
PnL
-$32.33
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Invested
$229.95
Value
$212.09
PnL
-$17.86
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$241.16
Value
$198.24
PnL
-$42.92
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Invested
$169.01
Value
$165.21
PnL
-$3.81
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Invested
$161.96
Value
$320.97
PnL
+$159
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$134.5
Value
$161.88
PnL
+$27.38
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$128.49
Value
$62.2
PnL
-$66.29
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$105.43
Value
$128.51
PnL
+$23.09
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$107.65
Value
$91.47
PnL
-$5.38
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
Invested
$82
Value
$100
PnL
+$18
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
ohioism<$100Invested
$52.85
Value
$70
PnL
+$17.15
Record
48%
838-904 (1742)
Invested
$111.75
Value
—
PnL
-$81.33
Record
49%
3270-3379 (6649)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$45.13
Value
$39
PnL
-$6.13
Record
47%
266-299 (565)
Invested
$68.61
Value
—
PnL
-$54.45
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$36
Value
—
PnL
-$36
Record
74%
622-215 (837)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$29.66
Value
—
PnL
-$29.66
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
blue.birds
Up — $915.4
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $440.65
stepahead
Up — $435.33
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $400.95
bosona
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
Up — $329.37
ply-pm0
Up — $265.48
CrouchPredictions
Up — $202.06