Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$5.9K
$213.01
Smart Money Signal
27 of 34 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.02 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 84.1¢ | $474.69 | $512.77 | +$38.09 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.3¢ | $396.65 | $500 | +$103.35 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $419.83 | $420.26 | +$0.43 | 46% 507-597 (1104) |
BO bosona | Downavg 98.3¢ | $418.56 | $417.27 | -$1.29 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 87.2¢ | $434.37 | $378.84 | -$38.13 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $331.11 | $368.5 | +$37.4 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 89.1¢ | $263.99 | $296.37 | +$32.38 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.7¢ | $253.13 | $256.58 | +$3.45 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 85.1¢ | $298.51 | $212.51 | -$86 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.2¢ | $221.47 | $218.84 | -$2.63 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
PB PBot-5 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $115.49 | $195.62 | +$93.89 | 47% 485-549 (1034) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 99.4¢ | $175.63 | $160 | -$15.63 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 78.8¢ | $110.78 | $128.44 | +$17.66 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $83.27 | $96.69 | +$13.78 | 62% 1746-1091 (2837) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $92.76 | $84.08 | -$8.68 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 24.9¢ | $78.29 | $49.99 | -$28.3 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $49.99 | +$24.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.9¢ | $52.79 | — | -$52.79 | |
ST stepahead<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $85.53 | $72.36 | -$13.16 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49¢ | $73.99 | $151 | +$77.01 | 46% 809-946 (1755) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $42.25 | $65.61 | +$23.36 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $39.21 | $55.5 | +$16.29 | 74% 622-215 (837) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $29.35 | $46.25 | +$16.9 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $20.69 | $29.62 | +$8.93 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $16.05 | $25 | +$8.95 | 44% 821-1039 (1860) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $24 | — | -$24 | 37% 374-624 (998) |
Invested
$1,090.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.02
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$474.69
Value
$512.77
PnL
+$38.09
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Invested
$396.65
Value
$500
PnL
+$103.35
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$419.83
Value
$420.26
PnL
+$0.43
Record
46%
507-597 (1104)
Invested
$418.56
Value
$417.27
PnL
-$1.29
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Invested
$434.37
Value
$378.84
PnL
-$38.13
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Invested
$331.11
Value
$368.5
PnL
+$37.4
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
machinelearnedInvested
$263.99
Value
$296.37
PnL
+$32.38
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Invested
$253.13
Value
$256.58
PnL
+$3.45
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$298.51
Value
$212.51
PnL
-$86
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$221.47
Value
$218.84
PnL
-$2.63
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Invested
$115.49
Value
$195.62
PnL
+$93.89
Record
47%
485-549 (1034)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$175.63
Value
$160
PnL
-$15.63
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$110.78
Value
$128.44
PnL
+$17.66
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$83.27
Value
$96.69
PnL
+$13.78
Record
62%
1746-1091 (2837)
Invested
$92.76
Value
$84.08
PnL
-$8.68
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Invested
$78.29
Value
$49.99
PnL
-$28.3
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Both legs:
Invested
$85.53
Value
$72.36
PnL
-$13.16
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$73.99
Value
$151
PnL
+$77.01
Record
46%
809-946 (1755)
Invested
$42.25
Value
$65.61
PnL
+$23.36
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$39.21
Value
$55.5
PnL
+$16.29
Record
74%
622-215 (837)
Invested
$29.35
Value
$46.25
PnL
+$16.9
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$20.69
Value
$29.62
PnL
+$8.93
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.05
Value
$25
PnL
+$8.95
Record
44%
821-1039 (1860)
Invested
$24
Value
—
PnL
-$24
Record
37%
374-624 (998)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $512.77
almach
Down — $500
0x50f7
Down — $420.26
bosona
Down — $417.27
blue.birds
Down — $378.84
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $368.5
machinelearned
Down — $296.37
Bonereaper
Down — $256.58
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $212.51