Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
Up 59%
4 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$370.42
Smart Money Signal
18 of 29 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $541.78 | $552.94 | +$11.16 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67¢ | $224.65 | $283.37 | +$58.72 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 89.2¢ | $230.84 | $183.49 | -$47.35 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 70.5¢ | $155.62 | $199.55 | +$43.93 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 68.3¢ | $164.41 | $201.57 | +$37.16 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $134.02 | $170.72 | +$36.7 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 30.6¢ | $235.75 | — | -$235.75 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 95.7¢ | $165.76 | $145 | -$0.09 | 62% 1746-1091 (2837) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 57.5¢ | $123.23 | $126.75 | +$3.53 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
AL almach | Upavg 79.2¢ | $103.26 | $124.99 | +$21.73 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 37.3¢ | $117.95 | $84.11 | -$33.84 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.1¢ | $40.49 | $84.11 | +$43.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.3¢ | $77.46 | — | -$77.46 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 78.8¢ | $120.15 | $102.39 | -$17.75 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $109.64 | $90.96 | -$18.68 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73.7¢ | $67.04 | $90.96 | +$23.92 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.5¢ | $42.6 | — | -$42.6 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $71.82 | $100 | +$28.19 | 52% 351-330 (681) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $49 | $100 | +$51 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27¢ | $22.82 | — | -$22.82 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 27.8¢ | $123.05 | $25 | -$98.05 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.8¢ | $104.45 | — | -$104.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 74.4¢ | $18.6 | $25 | +$6.4 | |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $45.42 | $70.98 | +$25.55 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $60.76 | — | -$60.76 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $51.17 | $40 | -$11.17 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $20.8 | $40.78 | +$19.98 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $32.65 | $35 | +$2.35 | 47% 266-299 (565) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 28¢ | $141.02 | — | -$141.02 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.5¢ | $32.4 | — | -$32.4 | 52% 150-141 (291) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $29.37 | $26 | -$3.37 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 77.5¢ | $18.18 | $23.46 | +$5.29 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $31.76 | — | -$31.76 | 38% 603-967 (1570) |
Invested
$541.78
Value
$552.94
PnL
+$11.16
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$224.65
Value
$283.37
PnL
+$58.72
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$230.84
Value
$183.49
PnL
-$47.35
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
FairValueMachineInvested
$155.62
Value
$199.55
PnL
+$43.93
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
Invested
$164.41
Value
$201.57
PnL
+$37.16
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$134.02
Value
$170.72
PnL
+$36.7
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Invested
$235.75
Value
—
PnL
-$235.75
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$165.76
Value
$145
PnL
-$0.09
Record
62%
1746-1091 (2837)
Invested
$123.23
Value
$126.75
PnL
+$3.53
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
Invested
$103.26
Value
$124.99
PnL
+$21.73
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$117.95
Value
$84.11
PnL
-$33.84
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$120.15
Value
$102.39
PnL
-$17.75
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$109.64
Value
$90.96
PnL
-$18.68
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.82
Value
$100
PnL
+$28.19
Record
52%
351-330 (681)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.05
Value
$25
PnL
-$98.05
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.42
Value
$70.98
PnL
+$25.55
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Invested
$60.76
Value
—
PnL
-$60.76
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$51.17
Value
$40
PnL
-$11.17
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$40.78
PnL
+$19.98
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$32.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$2.35
Record
47%
266-299 (565)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$141.02
Value
—
PnL
-$141.02
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Invested
$32.4
Value
—
PnL
-$32.4
Record
52%
150-141 (291)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$26
PnL
-$3.37
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
Invested
$18.18
Value
$23.46
PnL
+$5.29
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Invested
$31.76
Value
—
PnL
-$31.76
Record
38%
603-967 (1570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $552.94
Bonereaper
Up — $283.37
blue.birds
Up — $183.49
FairValueMachine
Up — $199.55
GoodFallen
Up — $201.57
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $170.72
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $145
stepahead
Up — $126.75
almach
Up — $124.99