Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$981.33

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 36 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares9,993

Combined PnL+$391.83

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,332

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$4.64	46% 507-597 (1104)
BO bosona	Downavg 85.8¢	$1.1K	$977.11	-$134.71	50% 3755-3780 (7535)
AL almach	Downavg 85.4¢	$634.53	$694.73	+$62.88	45% 526-642 (1168)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$633.55	$640	+$6.45	98% 1594-33 (1627)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.4¢	$588.5	$534.17	-$54.33	24% 348-1085 (1433)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$452.1	$476.02	+$23.92	46% 809-946 (1755)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$236.23	$476.02	+$239.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$215.87	—	-$215.87
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 50.2¢	$343.99	$458.63	+$114.64	58% 436-310 (746)
MO mo-money	Downavg 85.2¢	$463.75	$452.78	-$10.97	45% 534-658 (1192)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 56.9¢	$347.62	—	-$347.35	51% 1054-1033 (2087)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 45¢	$240.8	$264.36	+$31.16	41% 301-442 (743)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 17.8¢	$232.49	—	-$232.49	45% 426-520 (946)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 47.2¢	$184.84	$220.81	+$35.98	41% 324-461 (785)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 41.3¢	$222.49	—	-$222.49	54% 3668-3086 (6754)
PB PBot-5ARB<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$448.89	$160.32	-$288.57	47% 485-549 (1034)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.5¢	$138.7	$160.32	+$21.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.1¢	$310.19	—	-$310.19
FairValueMachine	Downavg 44¢	$110.89	$189.98	+$89.15	53% 4074-3548 (7622)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 55.8¢	$160.76	$184.43	+$23.67	32% 325-698 (1023)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR	Upavg 62¢	$174.31	—	-$174.31	51% 344-324 (668)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 53.9¢	$216.4	—	-$216.4	52% 3572-3348 (6920)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 98.3¢	$143.59	$120	-$23.59	53% 938-848 (1786)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 45¢	$74.19	$124.89	+$50.7	60% 428-281 (709)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 49¢	$79.57	$162.39	+$82.82	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$75.71	$75	-$0.71	47% 266-299 (565)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$31.81	$75	+$43.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$43.9	—	-$43.9
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$73.6	$72.48	+$42.98	49% 399-408 (807)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$61.76	$57.07	+$6.14	38% 603-967 (1570)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$49.38	$40.61	-$8.77	44% 821-1039 (1860)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,636.13

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$4.64

Record

46%

507-597 (1104)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,144.83

Value

$977.11

PnL

-$134.71

Record

50%

3755-3780 (7535)

almach

Down

Invested

$634.53

Value

$694.73

PnL

+$62.88

Record

45%

526-642 (1168)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$633.55

Value

$640

PnL

+$6.45

Record

98%

1594-33 (1627)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$588.5

Value

$534.17

PnL

-$54.33

Record

24%

348-1085 (1433)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$452.1

Value

$476.02

PnL

+$23.92

Record

46%

809-946 (1755)

Both legs:

Down$236.2349.6¢+$239.79

Up$215.8748.3¢-$215.87

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$343.99

Value

$458.63

PnL

+$114.64

Record

58%

436-310 (746)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$463.75

Value

$452.78

PnL

-$10.97

Record

45%

534-658 (1192)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$347.62

Value

—

PnL

-$347.35

Record

51%

1054-1033 (2087)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$240.8

Value

$264.36

PnL

+$31.16

Record

41%

301-442 (743)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$232.49

Value

—

PnL

-$232.49

Record

45%

426-520 (946)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$184.84

Value

$220.81

PnL

+$35.98

Record

41%

324-461 (785)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$222.49

Value

—

PnL

-$222.49

Record

54%

3668-3086 (6754)

PBot-5ARB<$100

Invested

$448.89

Value

$160.32

PnL

-$288.57

Record

47%

485-549 (1034)

Both legs:

Down$138.786.5¢+$21.62

Up$310.1958.1¢-$310.19

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$110.89

Value

$189.98

PnL

+$89.15

Record

53%

4074-3548 (7622)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$160.76

Value

$184.43

PnL

+$23.67

Record

32%

325-698 (1023)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR

Invested

$174.31

Value

—

PnL

-$174.31

Record

51%

344-324 (668)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$216.4

Value

—

PnL

-$216.4

Record

52%

3572-3348 (6920)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$143.59

Value

$120

PnL

-$23.59

Record

53%

938-848 (1786)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$74.19

Value

$124.89

PnL

+$50.7

Record

60%

428-281 (709)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$79.57

Value

$162.39

PnL

+$82.82

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$75.71

Value

$75

PnL

-$0.71

Record

47%

266-299 (565)

Both legs:

Down$31.8142.4¢+$43.19

Up$43.961¢-$43.9

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$73.6

Value

$72.48

PnL

+$42.98

Record

49%

399-408 (807)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$61.76

Value

$57.07

PnL

+$6.14

Record

38%

603-967 (1570)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$49.38

Value

$40.61

PnL

-$8.77

Record

44%

821-1039 (1860)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 36 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x36faa0cf...8b720d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794405300

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $4.6K

+$4.64

bosona

Down — $977.11

-$134.71

almach

Down — $694.73

+$62.88

hoodquant

Down — $640

+$6.45

ply-pm0

Down — $534.17

-$54.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$23.92

Bonereaper

Down — $458.63

+$114.64

mo-money

Down — $452.78

-$10.97

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$347.35

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $264.36

+$31.16

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