Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
34
Up 71%
1 arb excluded
$5.2K
-$173.52
Smart Money Signal
24 of 34 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 85.2¢ | $820.98 | $906.4 | +$85.42 | 58% 436-310 (746) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 87.6¢ | $828.18 | $808.3 | +$1.37 | 45% 534-658 (1192) |
AL almach | Upavg 93¢ | $378.61 | $391.97 | +$18.68 | 45% 526-642 (1168) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 28.1¢ | $350.18 | — | -$350.18 | 45% 426-520 (946) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 90.1¢ | $332.52 | $283.4 | -$49.13 | 39% 493-763 (1256) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 58.9¢ | $227.19 | $261.11 | +$33.93 | 41% 301-442 (743) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 74.6¢ | $211.26 | $272.61 | +$61.35 | 60% 428-281 (709) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 77.1¢ | $236.44 | $260.11 | +$23.67 | 52% 3572-3348 (6920) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 85.4¢ | $219.76 | $234.06 | +$14.3 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
 ohioism | Upavg 63.1¢ | $136.47 | $216.27 | +$79.8 | 48% 838-904 (1742) |
BO bosona | Upavg 91¢ | $206.98 | $201.86 | -$5.12 | 50% 3755-3780 (7535) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 61.7¢ | $133.73 | $199.99 | +$66.26 | 41% 324-461 (785) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.9¢ | $139.38 | $146.21 | +$6.83 | 54% 3668-3086 (6754) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 66.9¢ | $148.95 | $124.37 | -$24.58 | 32% 325-698 (1023) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 84.2¢ | $113.22 | $128.93 | +$16.96 | 62% 1746-1091 (2837) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 51¢ | $90.48 | $128.04 | +$39.23 | 53% 4074-3548 (7622) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 68.5¢ | $120.7 | $115.44 | -$5.26 | 49% 399-408 (807) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 89¢ | $94.9 | $106.6 | +$11.7 | 35% 450-832 (1282) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 82.1¢ | $89.53 | $92.93 | +$3.88 | 65% 1531-815 (2346) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 40.6¢ | $91.66 | $63.85 | -$27.81 | 49% 3270-3379 (6649) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.4¢ | $39.85 | $63.85 | +$24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.6¢ | $51.82 | — | -$51.82 | |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $36.54 | $74.43 | +$37.89 | 50% 3395-3345 (6740) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Downavg 37.4¢ | $90.15 | — | -$90.15 | 24% 348-1085 (1433) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Upavg 97.2¢ | $62.68 | $60.13 | -$2.55 | 51% 344-324 (668) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $59.78 | $61 | +$1.22 | 98% 1594-33 (1627) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $44.52 | $65.47 | +$20.95 | 52% 351-330 (681) |
Invested
$820.98
Value
$906.4
PnL
+$85.42
Record
58%
436-310 (746)
Invested
$828.18
Value
$808.3
PnL
+$1.37
Record
45%
534-658 (1192)
Invested
$378.61
Value
$391.97
PnL
+$18.68
Record
45%
526-642 (1168)
Invested
$350.18
Value
—
PnL
-$350.18
Record
45%
426-520 (946)
machinelearnedInvested
$332.52
Value
$283.4
PnL
-$49.13
Record
39%
493-763 (1256)
Invested
$227.19
Value
$261.11
PnL
+$33.93
Record
41%
301-442 (743)
Invested
$211.26
Value
$272.61
PnL
+$61.35
Record
60%
428-281 (709)
Invested
$236.44
Value
$260.11
PnL
+$23.67
Record
52%
3572-3348 (6920)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$219.76
Value
$234.06
PnL
+$14.3
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
ohioismInvested
$136.47
Value
$216.27
PnL
+$79.8
Record
48%
838-904 (1742)
Invested
$206.98
Value
$201.86
PnL
-$5.12
Record
50%
3755-3780 (7535)
Invested
$133.73
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$66.26
Record
41%
324-461 (785)
Invested
$139.38
Value
$146.21
PnL
+$6.83
Record
54%
3668-3086 (6754)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$148.95
Value
$124.37
PnL
-$24.58
Record
32%
325-698 (1023)
Invested
$113.22
Value
$128.93
PnL
+$16.96
Record
62%
1746-1091 (2837)
FairValueMachineInvested
$90.48
Value
$128.04
PnL
+$39.23
Record
53%
4074-3548 (7622)
Invested
$120.7
Value
$115.44
PnL
-$5.26
Record
49%
399-408 (807)
pspspsps5Invested
$94.9
Value
$106.6
PnL
+$11.7
Record
35%
450-832 (1282)
Invested
$89.53
Value
$92.93
PnL
+$3.88
Record
65%
1531-815 (2346)
Invested
$91.66
Value
$63.85
PnL
-$27.81
Record
49%
3270-3379 (6649)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.54
Value
$74.43
PnL
+$37.89
Record
50%
3395-3345 (6740)
Invested
$90.15
Value
—
PnL
-$90.15
Record
24%
348-1085 (1433)
Invested
$62.68
Value
$60.13
PnL
-$2.55
Record
51%
344-324 (668)
Invested
$59.78
Value
$61
PnL
+$1.22
Record
98%
1594-33 (1627)
Invested
$44.52
Value
$65.47
PnL
+$20.95
Record
52%
351-330 (681)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $906.4
mo-money
Up — $808.3
almach
Up — $391.97
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
Up — $283.4
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $261.11
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $272.61
blue.birds
Up — $260.11
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $234.06
ohioism
Up — $216.27